IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|衰退担忧或被夸大 美联储官员担心的仍是通胀

2025年03月10日 3540点热度 1331人点赞 19条评论

基本面​

美指

衰退担忧或被夸大 美联储官员担心的仍是通胀

年年初的数据受到了一些临时因素的影响,比如异常恶劣的天气和野火,导致经济放缓的例子可能被夸大了。美联储仍未完成将通胀降至目标水平的工作,而特朗普政府引发的全球贸易战威胁可能会进一步推高消费者价格。一些美联储官员指出,如果美国与其三个最大贸易伙伴国之间的关税争端失控,通胀可能会再次抬头。

纽约银行投资公司的首席经济学家Vincent Reinhart表示:“需求正在显示出一些磨损,但它还没有累积到足以构成重大衰退风险的程度。通胀仍是当务之急。”

安永会计师事务所(Ernst & Young)的高级经济学家Lydia Boussour表示:“鉴于通胀风险明显倾向于上行,劳动力市场状况总体上仍然稳固,我们认为在未来几个月里积极反应的美联储将保持观望态度,并预计2025年美联储只会在6月和12月降息两次。”

黄金

金价高位震荡,受避险需求和美国就业增长放缓影响,市场看涨情绪高昂

受全球经济前景的不确定性提振,黄金维持区间震荡,美联储可能降息的预期推动了黄金价格在2025年第一季度屡创新高。与此同时,黄金ETF持续吸引资金流入,持仓量升至2023年12月以来的最高水平。

黄金的持续上涨主要受到以下因素的推动: 美国经济进入“过渡期”:美国总统特朗普表示,经济正经历“过渡期”,而其贸易政策和联邦政府裁员计划加剧了市场的不确定性。

美联储主席鲍威尔上周五承认美国经济面临不确定性,但表示尚无必要仓促调整政策,这进一步增强了市场对降息的预期。

原油

供需双杀之下,油价空头有望继续下行

美国总统特朗普近期的贸易政策引发市场对全球经济增长的担忧,进而影响燃油需求预期。特朗普先是宣布对加拿大和墨西哥实施关税,随后又推迟执行,导致市场的不确定性上升。

OPEC+宣布将从4月开始增产,俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示,如果市场失衡,OPEC+可能会调整政策,但市场仍担忧短期供应增加会加剧油价下行压力。

技术面

美元指数

市场行情整理: 

上周五,略显逊色的非农数据继续支撑美联储年内多次降息的预期,美元指数五日连跌,刷新四个月以来低位,但在鲍威尔重申不急于降息后有所反弹,最终收跌0.298%,报103.89,创2022年11月以来最大单周跌幅。美债收益率在鲍威尔讲话后持续拉升,抹去日内全部跌幅,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.301%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.002%。

观点整理:

回顾上周五美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线直接承压下跌,随后价格再创周内低点位置,美盘价格受到非农数据影响价格短线震荡后再度向上修正,位置上价格并没有突破四小时级别阻力位置,最终日线阴线收尾,但是下方留下长引线。目前看美元指数整体依旧处于空头走势中,周线阻力于107.30区域、日线阻力于105.90区域,四小时阻力于103.95位置,所以多周期目前依旧偏空,但是短线四小时上是有修正的表现,所以暂时线关注四小时阻力得失,一旦上破则短线先关注向上调整,后续待调整后再看进一步承压。

黄金

市场行情整理:

由于避险资金流入和美国2月非农就业增长低于预期,现货黄金高位企稳,最终收涨0.03%,报2910.79美元/盎司,周线恢复收阳。现货白银收跌0.31%,报32.53美元/盎司。

观点整理:

美元指数持续走低,叠加美债收益率共振下行,支撑金价反弹,同时避险情绪支撑金价多头,但需要注意的是目前美元指数超跌之后存在反弹修正的可能性,因此金价不排除再次回落的可能性,短期维持区间对待

原油

市场行情整理:

受连番轰炸的新闻头条影响,两油坐上过山车。在美能源部宣布计划准备补充SPR、以及特朗普考虑对俄实施大规模制裁后,WTI原油飙升2%至日内新高,随后据称普京准备同意与乌克兰有条件地停战,WTI原油盘中跳水,最终涨幅收窄至1.18%,报66.86美元/桶;布伦特原油走势相似,最终收涨1.31%,报70.19美元/桶。

观点整理:

供给端过剩的担忧情绪依然是施压油价的重要因素,同时需求预期进一步放缓,形成供需双杀,而技术层面价格跌破重要支撑之后有望进一步向下加速,日内维持空头对待

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