
基本面
美指
美联储官员齐发声:特朗普政策不确定性或扰乱降息计划!
三位美联储官员在周四的讲话中表达了相似的担忧,尽管他们在政策立场上有时存在分歧。他们一致认为,美国通胀正在逐步降温,这为美联储进一步降息提供了可能性。然而,总统特朗普在贸易、移民等政策上的不确定性,可能对这一前景产生重大影响。
尽管美联储官员们普遍认为通胀正在降温,为降息提供了空间,但特朗普政府在贸易、移民等政策上的不确定性,给这一前景蒙上了阴影。企业界的普遍担忧和通胀的顽固性,使得美联储在未来的政策决策中面临更多挑战。如何在对抗通胀和提供经济缓冲之间找到平衡,将是美联储未来需要解决的关键问题。
黄金
地缘政治和贸易担忧情绪推升避险需求,黄金迎来八周连涨,ETF持仓创年内新高
受地缘政治风险和贸易担忧情绪升温推动,黄金市场连续八周上涨,为2020年以来最长连涨纪录。尽管周五金价回落至2930美元以下,但本周涨幅仍超1%。全球黄金ETF持仓量本周大增16吨,创2023年以来最大单周增幅,周四金价创下历史新高,主要受到市场对美国前总统特朗普可能调整外交政策的担忧影响。
“特朗普不确定的贸易和外交政策使得市场更倾向于黄金作为避险资产。”——高盛分析师
原油
供应不确定性与贸易担忧情绪支撑之下,油价多头能走多远?
近期国际油价连续上涨,主要受到美国燃料油库存下降、俄乌冲突升级及OPEC+可能推迟增产等因素的共同推动。尽管市场面临贸易担忧情绪的挑战,整体供应端的不确定性仍是支撑油价的重要因素。美国政府宣布的新进口关税政策引发市场对全球经济增长的担忧,可能削弱燃油需求。贸易紧张局势可能导致全球经济增长放缓,抑制石油消费。
“原油库存增长超预期,但汽油库存减少,馏分油库存降幅更大,使得整体库存水平保持平衡。”——瑞银集团分析师 Giovanni Staunovo
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周四,美元指数因“关税疲劳”,全日单边下行,最终失守107美元关口,收跌0.73%,报106.38。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.5110%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.2850%。
观点整理:
回顾周四美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线直接弱势承压,随后日内持续极弱表现,并且价格收盘在最低位附近。整体看美指正如笔者所言一路下跌,从日线级别看暂时需要关注107.30区域阻力,此位置之下则波段空对待,同时短线上看暂时需要关注106.80-90区间阻力,价格在此位置之下持续看承压即可,下方关注106.10-105.70区域。
黄金
市场行情整理:
因特朗普表示木材关税可能于4月2日左右宣布,再度提振了避险情绪,现货黄金触及2954.93美元,创下今年第十个新高,但在美国财长贝森特表示没有重新评估黄金储备价值的想法后,黄金开始回落,最终收涨0.21%,报2939美元/盎司。现货白银最终收涨0.80%,报32.95美元/盎司。
观点整理:
美元指数继续回落,支撑金价走强,但是短期多头连续刷新高点之后并未加速,避险情绪对于金价的支撑逐步变化,继续关注市场对于美联储降息预期的变化,日内维持高位震荡
原油
市场行情整理:
因数据显示美国汽油和馏分油库存减少,同时对俄罗斯供应中断的担忧也支撑了油价,国际油价连续第三日上涨。WTI原油最终收涨0.64%,报72.53美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨0.70%,报76.57美元/桶。
观点整理:
EIA原油库存增长超预期,增加了460万桶,达到4.3249亿桶,高于分析师预期的310万桶增幅但汽油库存减少,馏分油库存降幅更大,使得整体库存水平保持平衡,同时地缘局势依然存在不确定性,推动供给端担忧情绪,支撑油价反弹,尚未突破压力区间之前,谨防二次回落。

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