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基本面
美指
美联储暂缓降息,各国央行路线分歧 去。这种“分道扬镳”的局面可能会给美国总统特朗普带来麻烦,使他计划征收的贸易关税 失去效力,甚至会加大美国企业和家庭借贷成本上升的风险。
美联储是全球最大的央行,通常在制定政策方向方面引领其他央行。但2025年伊始的情况却远非如此。
美国经济强劲,而世界上许多其他大型经济体却举步维艰,再加上特朗普的政策和贸易威胁带来的不确定性,使得美联储在进一步降息问题上束手束脚。
黄金
现货黄金突破2890美元/盎司,刷新历史新高,年内涨幅超10%
由于特朗普宣布将对钢铁和铝制品征收新的25%关税,黄金价格再刷历史新高。黄金作为避险资产的需求继续增长,动金价上涨至近2888美元/盎司。同时,亚洲大国增加黄金储备,进一步推动了金价的上涨。显示出在经济放缓和不确定性增加的背景下,黄金作为保值资产的吸引力增强。
Westpac银行的分析师Richard Franulovich指出:“特朗普的政策令人难以预测,并且充满扰乱性,无论是对盟友还是对手施加关税威胁,甚至威胁对金砖国家实行100%的关税,这些因素都提升了黄金的避险吸引力。”
原油
特朗普关税政策升级引发布伦特原油反弹至75美元,贸易紧张局势加剧全球能源市场不确定性
布伦特原油价格反弹至每桶75美元,结束三周连跌走势。这一回升源于市场重新评估特朗普不断升级的关税政策影响。特朗普还计划对全球铝和钢材加征额外关税,这可能冲击美国石油钻探行业。尽管需求疲软压制油价,但对俄罗斯和伊朗可能扩大制裁的预期形成一定支撑。专家认为,贸易摩擦与制裁政策将成为影响油价走势的关键因素。
“市场主要关注的是由于贸易紧张局势加剧带来的需求疲软问题。”
——ANZ集团商品策略师Soni Kumari
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
上周五,因非农暗示美联储将继续暂停降息,以及特朗普表示本周将宣布对许多国家征收对等关税,美元指数重回108关口,最终收涨0.36%,报108.10。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.4960%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.3020%。
观点整理:
回顾上周五美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线震荡运行,但是价格没有下破前一日低点位置,同时在非农数据公布后美指探底回升,随后隔夜期间持续上涨并且最终收盘大阳收尾。目前周线支撑于107.80区域支撑,日线支撑于108区域,短线四小时支撑于107.90区域支撑,在没有下破周线支撑之前暂时先关注反弹,上方短线关注108.80区域。
黄金
市场行情整理:
在非农数据公布后,现货黄金触及2886.71美元,创历史新高,最终收涨0.15%,报2860.09美元/盎司,连续第六周上涨。现货白银在非农数据刺激下一度涨至32.65美元,但随后回吐日内全部涨幅,最终收跌1.30%,报31.77美元/盎司。
观点整理:
虽然美国非农数据低于预期,但是失业率降低,推动美联储降息预期进一步放缓,但金价依然在避险情绪定价之中,短期连续刷新新高之后多头有望再次加速,等待技术指标修正之后的低吸机会
原油
市场行情整理:
在美国对伊朗原油出口实施新制裁后,油价周五收高。WTI原油最终收涨0.70%,报70.97美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨0.62%,报74.65美元/桶。
观点整理:
技术层面上来看,美原油日线已经跌破55日均线支撑,同时MACD加速走低,短期尚未形成止跌迹象,等待反抽72美元附近确认压力是否有效,若跌破70美元整数关,则不排除油价加速下行的可能性。
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