IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|如果特朗普在就职后将其建议付诸实施,金价可能突破2800美元

2025年01月20日 11592点热度 3214人点赞 18条评论

基本面​

美指

美联储是美国通胀的唯一原因!经济学家主张终结美联储,恢复金本位制

美国传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)的经济学家Peter St Onge表示,特朗普旨在促进经济增长的政策,如减税和放松管制,可能会抵消美联储控制通胀的努力。St Onge主张终结美联储,认为它是通胀和繁荣萧条周期的主要原因。他提议恢复金本位制,美联储是通胀的唯一原因。

候任总统特朗普的经济议程,包括潜在的减税和放松管制,可能会在未来几年让美联储的影响力黯然失色。

黄金

分析师:如果特朗普在就职后将其建议付诸实施,金价可能突破2800美元

特朗普有关利用贸易关税支持美国制造业的激进言论继续提振美元。然而,他的言论也引发了通胀担忧,以及人们对经济增长可能因全球贸易战而受到影响的担忧。盛宝银行商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示:在我们更清楚地了解特朗普的政策以及它们可能如何影响美元、收益率以及对降息的新信念之前,我们可能很难突破这一阻力位。

尽管特朗普的新政府正在制造很多地缘政治焦虑,全世界都在等待他上任的头几天将推出哪些政策,但 Forex高级市场策略师James Stanley表示,他知道特朗普不会做其中的一件事,这对黄金有利。

特朗普不会限制支出。他不会平衡预算。他不会成为紧缩政策的总统。

原油

油价冲高回落,多头还有机会吗?

油价上周五收低,但连续第四周走强,因为美国对俄罗斯能源贸易的最新制裁加重了对石油供应中断的担忧。

Price Futures Group高级分析师Phil Flynn说:“对俄罗斯的制裁正在造成欧洲、印度等国的供应紧张。”

投资者还在评估美国当选总统特朗普周一重返白宫的潜在影响。特朗普的财政部长提名人表示,他准备对俄罗斯石油实施更严厉的制裁。

技术面

美元指数

市场行情整理: 

上周五,美元指数盘中一度跌破109关口,但随后迅速收复全部失地并转涨,最终收涨0.44%,报109.42,不过周线仍收跌,结束连续六周连涨之势。美债收益率小幅上涨,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.630%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.291%。

观点整理:

回顾上周五美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线震荡后再度上涨,美盘后价格大幅震荡,最终收盘在高位,日线大阳收尾。从周线上看上周大阴收尾,后续有望进一步承压,下方107.10区域是中线多空分水岭,日线支撑于109区域,四小时支撑于109.10区域。上周尾价格持续震荡压制在109.45区域,所以短线继续关注109.40-50区间阻力,后续关注日线及四小时区间支撑得失,一旦下破则后续继续看承压。

黄金

市场行情整理:

现货黄金盘中一度逼近2720美元,但受美元打压,黄金尾盘回吐日内大部分涨幅并转跌,最终收跌0.42%,报2702.87美元/盎司。现货白银最终收跌1.5%,报30.33美元/盎司。

观点整理:

市场已经充分定价美联储降息放缓,但避险情绪升温支撑金价,同时美元指数回踩之后并未加速反弹,对于金价的影响有限,短期技术指标存在修正需求,等待均线上移为主,日线维持区间震荡。

原油

市场行情整理:

原油延续回落势头,但周线为连续第四周收涨。WTI原油徘徊在77美元附近,最终收跌0.77%,报77.22美元/桶;布伦特原油收跌0.65%,报79.87美元/桶。

观点整理:

技术层面上,美原油日线加速走高之后测试上行通道压力,且尚未突破80美元整数关,目前均线偏离值较大,回踩密集支撑区间76美元附近不破,则延续多头上行。

    Kratos

    保持饥渴的专注,追求最佳的品质

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