基本面
美指
美国12月就业报告预计将显示招聘放缓,失业率稳定
在美国非农就业数据公布前,美元指数保持强势。对当选总统特朗普通胀政策的担忧加剧了全球债券收益率的上升,扩大了美国和其他国家之间的差距。这种差异支撑了美元,同时增加了外国债券市场的波动性。FX Street高级分析师Joseph Trevisani说:”已经公布的大多数经济数据都比预期的要强一些,因此如果明天公布的非农就业数据比预期的要强,那么这将是另一个表明经济并未降温,通胀将面临更大压力的指标。”Trevisani补充说:”我们还将迎来特朗普政府,这将改变很多的事情。”
黄金
非农来袭!特朗普“霸气侧漏”,金价三连阳创近四周新高
金价周四升至近四周最高,受避险需求支撑,美联储多名官员发表讲话,认为应暂停或谨慎对待降息,同时投资者也在权衡美国当选总统特朗普的政策将对经济和通胀产生怎样的影响。交易员们评估了当选总统特朗普即将上任的政府提出的政策可能对经济产生的影响,周三的一轮大抛售一度导致10 年期国债收益率升至八个多月来最高。但特朗普政策的不确定性也给金价提供避险支撑。
富瑞美国经济学家Thomas Simons表示,特朗普究竟会推出哪些政策存在很大的不确定性,交易员们将更强劲的增长作为默认选项。
原油
季节性需求激增,美国库存增加限制收益,原油价格稳定
因美国和欧洲部分地区天气寒冷,刺激了冬季燃料需求。
摩根大通分析师估计,在美国、欧洲和日本,气温每低于 10 年平均气温一华氏度,取暖油和丙烷的需求量就会增加 113,000 桶/日,”因为令人打寒颤的气温会促使消费者打开暖气”。
与此同时,布伦特期货的市场结构表明,在需求增加的同时,交易商对供应紧缩的担忧也在加剧。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周四,因特朗普预计将在上台后对贸易伙伴征收关税,美元指数连续三日走强,最终收涨0.14%,报109.17。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.6880%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.2720%。
观点整理:
回顾周四美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线先承压下跌,随后再度发力上涨,但是价格没有突破前一日高点位置,随后持续震荡中,日线收盘依旧阳线收尾。针对今日是非农数据公布的日子。日线上暂时关注108.50区域支撑,此位置是波段走势的关键。同时短线上暂时关注四小时支撑108.90-109区间支撑,今日关注此位置得失,不破维持偏强,但如如若下破则关注日线支撑。
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金维持上涨趋势,一度逼近2680关口,最终收涨0.33%,报2669.53美元/盎司。现货白银最终收涨0.07%,报30.10美元/盎司。
观点整理:
美元指数高位震荡,等待非农数据,基本面上金价在避险情绪的提振之下继续反弹,但尚未突破压力区间,且美联储降息预期放缓,中期施压金价,短期等待压力测试为主,日内维持震荡上行。
原油
市场行情整理:
因今年冬季比正常情况更寒冷,全球石油需求预计都将保持强劲。WTI原油最终收涨1.36%,报74.25美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨1.42%,报77.21美元/桶。
观点整理:
就技术层面而言,目前美原油日线回踩之后继续反弹,但并未突破下降趋势线,短期若美元未能加速新高,则美原油有望趁势继续反弹,日线级别重点留意75美元整数关是否突破。
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