基本面
美指
短期内,在这些障碍消除之前,我们将看到的是震荡和难以找到方向。
美国劳工部的一份报告显示,上周初请和续请失业金人数双双下降,支持了就业市场稳健的看法,并增加了美联储在本月政策会议上维持关键利率不变的可能性。
市场参与者撇开美联储降息步伐、即将上任的特朗普政府将颁布的政策以及各种地缘政治动荡热点等不确定性因素,选择关注美国经济的实力。
Spartan Capital Securities首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo称,未来几周有几个障碍,下周五的就业数据和第四季度财报的开始。”他补充称:”短期内,在这些障碍消除之前,我们将看到的是震荡和难以找到方向。
黄金
避险需求推动金价创逾两周新高,关注特朗普政策和ISM数据
Forex市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada称:”年初的修正或盘整可能会为黄金再次大涨奠定基础。”他还称,金价达到每盎司3000美元的目标是有可能的。”特朗普交易平仓可能会削弱美元并提振金价。”本交易日将出炉美国12月ISM制造业PMI,市场预期为48.4%,前值也是48.4%;低于50暗示制造业处于萎缩,如果数据符合预期或者差于预期,则偏向利多金价。
原油
周五公布的美国ISM制造业数据将是原油下一步走势的关键
美国上周初请失业金人数降至八个月来的最低水平,暗示2024年底裁员率很低,符合劳动力市场状况健康的情况。尽管这会打压美联储降息预期,但这本身就意味着美国经济仍相对强劲,偏向支撑原油需求。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周四,因市场预期特朗普的政策将提振美元,美元指数向上触及109关口,续刷2022年11月以来新高,最终收涨0.72%,报109.26。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.5680%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.2620%。
观点整理:
回顾周四美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线震荡修正后于四小时支撑上方再度上涨,从时间点看刚好在欧盘时间点,随后美盘期间价格同样再度发力,最终日线大阳状态收尾。同时价格昨日向上突破近期震荡上边缘位置。目前日线支撑于108区域,四小时支撑于108.50-60区间支撑,后续待价格再度回踩后看上行。
黄金
市场行情整理:
受地缘政治风险和特朗普政府严重财政赤字导致政府债务上升的预期推动,现货黄金保持了2024年的强劲势头,最终收涨1.29%,报2657.66美元/盎司。现货白银最终收涨2.28%,报29.55美元/盎司。
观点整理:
避险情绪有所升温,同时技术指标进入多头加速区间,短期等待均线上移确认多头突破是否有效,继续关注美元指数以及美债收益率是否同步走强。
原油
市场行情整理:
因市场预期今年中国将实施更加积极的经济政策,WTI原油重回73美元关口,触及10月14日以来新高,最终收涨1.74%,报73.06美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨1.43%,报75.87美元/桶。
观点整理:
自10月15日以来,美原油在66.53-72.88区域震荡运行,目前已经初步突破了该震荡区域,MACD和KDJ金叉运行,布林线开口,油价后市有望沿布林线上轨启动一波涨势,目标有望看向10月10日高点76.24甚至是10月8日高点78.46附近。
不过,由于KDJ也初步发出短线超买信号,若油价回落至5日均线71.91下方,则需要提防油价回归震荡行情的可能性。
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