基本面
美指
鲍威尔为“披着鸽子外衣的鹰”！美联储最终可能变得更加强硬，投资者大量抛售风险资产
富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案公司高级副总裁马克斯·戈克曼 (Max Gokhman) 称鲍威尔为“披着鸽子外衣的鹰”，尽管他淡化了近期通货紧缩的放缓，同时吹嘘经济势头强劲，但他仍然暗示关税不会被视为暂时性的，并且对 2025 年的两次下调预测是必要的，因为政策必须保持限制性。
目前，人们对明年降息的预期正在迅速减弱。市场似乎认为明年只会降息一次，这意味着通胀将持续较长时间，利率将持续较高水平，所有这些都会损害股票估值。随着融资成本上升，赤字问题变得更加严重。总体而言，这对风险资产来说是一个负面的影响，令市场感到恐慌。
黄金
美联储鹰派降息，明年恐只降息一次，金价大跌60美元失守2600关口
美联储官员们发布了新的预测，预计在通胀率上升的情况下明年降息两次，每次25个基点，这一预测与对特朗普1月份入主白宫的观望态度一致，在美联储作出裁决后，美元延续涨势，最高触及108.27，为2022年11月11日以来新高，收报108.26附近，涨幅约1.22%使黄金对其他货币持有者而言更加昂贵
“市场难以消化明年仅有两次降息；黄金走低，但仍在坚守，”独立金属交易商Tai Wong说：”如果黄金能守在2600美元以上，多头将感到高兴。
原油
美联储利率决议落地，需求担忧情绪扰动油价，空头再次发力？
美国能源信息署周三称，在截至12月13日的一周，美国原油和馏分油库存下降，而汽油库存上升，美联储12月利率决议落地，降息25BP符合市场预期，但是美联储主席鹰派言论施压油价，预期明年降息50BP，打压了市场需求预期，因此油价冲高回落。
Price Futures Group高级分析师Phil Flynn称：”市场似乎已经从几周前的消极情绪中转向，人们对需求更加乐观。”
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周三，美联储意外将明年降息预期砍半，美元指数暴力拉升120点，最终收涨1.228%，报108.26，刷新2022年11月以来新高。美债收益率集体攀升，两年期美债收益率收报4.363%，10年期美债收益率收报4.519%，日内均涨超10个基点。
观点整理:
目前看美指价格依旧呈现出偏多表现，日线级别支撑于106.70区域，价格在此位置之上则继续波段看多，短期四小时上暂时关注107.30-40区间支撑，上方则关注108.50-109.20区域。
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金盘中跳水，美联储决议公布后累跌逾50美元，失守2590美元关口，最终收跌2.3%，报2585.78美元/盎司，创一个月新低。现货白银随之重挫，最终收跌3.85%，报29.36美元/盎司，创三个月新低。
观点整理:
美联储利率决议落地，2025年降息要求放缓，施压金价，且美元指数再创新高，日线跌破区间支撑，短期震荡下行，等待指标修正。
原油
市场行情整理:
尽管美国原油库存下降显示了需求韧性，但美联储暗示放缓降息步伐打压了乐观情绪，两油连续第三个交易日走低。WTI原油最终收跌0.62%，报69.36美元/桶；布伦特原油收跌0.63%，报72.59美元/桶。
观点整理:
技术层面上来看，美原油日线再次跌破均线支撑，短期重回箱体震荡，且MACD接近死叉，存在进一步下行的可能性，不排除再次测试前期低点的可能性。
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