基本面
美指
德国总理未通过议会信任投票,美联储降息预期和央行购金支撑金价
根据CME 的 FedWatch 工具,市场认为美联储在本周政策会议结束时降息四分之一个百分点的可能性接近97%。指标美国 10 年期公债收益率下跌 0.8 个基点,至 4.391%。
Moneycorp北美结构主管Eugene Epstein表示:”当你审视美元的表现时,你不仅看到美联储有点处于尴尬境地,而且还看到许多主要央行也在另一个方向有自己的故事:加拿大央行刚刚降息,瑞士央行降息,欧洲央行超预期降息。归根结底,能够逆转美元当前强势的因素并不多。”
黄金
美联储政策会议前美元冲高受阻,金价跌势放缓?关注“恐怖数据”
受持续的地缘政治担忧和美元走软的支撑,金价周一探底回升,不过市场在等待美联储的政策会议,观望情绪较浓,整体交投比较谨慎;预计美联储将第三次降息,并提供有关2025年前景的线索。
原油
需求担忧拖累油价,美联储利率来临,谨防“靴子落地”行情
在美联储利率决议落地之前,市场小幅回落,等待靴子落地,需要注意的是,本次是年度最后一次利率决议,且市场预期已经充分定价,不排除靴子落地之后油价重回区间震荡的可能性。
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周一,美元指数高开后陷入横盘震荡,最终收跌0.082%,报106.85。美债收益率延续涨势,两年期美债收益率收报4.264%,10年期美债收益率收报4.405%。
观点整理:
回顾周一美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格直接承压下跌,随后欧盘期间于四小时支撑止步,同时美盘后价格持续震荡,但是最终收盘在低位。目前看美指有进一步下探日线支撑106.40区域,后续重点关注日线支撑得失,此位置得失决定波段走势的关键。
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金总体上先涨后跌,盘中最高触及2664.36美元/盎司,随后抹去部分涨幅,最终收涨0.16%,报2652.73美元/盎司。现货白银最终收跌0.12%,报30.53美元/盎司。
观点整理:
日线冲高回落,再次跌破均线支撑,且均线拐头向下,美债收益率走强,等待美联储利率决议之后的方向选择
原油
市场行情整理:
由于全球最大石油进口国消费者支出疲软,以及投资者在美联储利率决议公布前暂停买盘,两油从数周来的高点回落。WTI原油一度跌破70关口,最终收跌0.59%,报70.25美元/桶;布伦特原油收跌0.62%,报73.62美元/桶。
观点整理:
技术层面上来看,美原油日线重回均线附近盘整,而MACD指标反弹尚未结束,但红柱缩短,短期维持区间震荡,若盘整不破69.5美元附近均线支撑,则需要等待指标修正之后的二次反弹机会。
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