基本面
美指
美联储下周降息预期大增,提振金价持续攀升
美元周三走高,此前美国物价数据符合预期,增强了美联储下周降息的预期。周三的数据显示,上个月消费者物价指数上涨了0.3%,这是自4月份以来的最大涨幅,此前该指数已连续四个月上涨0.2%。接受路透调查的经济学家此前预测该指数将上升0.3%。
Bannockburn Forex 首席市场策略师Marc Chandler表示, “实际上,市场对美联储下周仍将降息充满信心,美联储很少会在定价如此强劲的情况下逆市场而动。”
黄金
机构称明年白银可能再次跑赢黄金,预计现货价达到40美元
Heraeus贵金属的分析师表示,尽管美国第二季度可能出现的经济衰退将影响白银的工业需求,但这种灰色金属近期的大部分强势预计将延续到新的一年,银价预计将在2025年跑赢黄金。
他们指出:“今年银价在所有贵金属中涨幅最大(截至11月底上涨26.82%)。今年早些时候全球利率周期的下一阶段开始了,对金银都有帮助。与此同时,太阳能光伏需求的持续增长和印度隐含需求的强劲反弹也支撑了实物价格。”
原油
多重利好助力多头反扑,油价或将加速上涨?
美国上周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存减少129.8万桶,前值增加5万桶,同时全球需求预期有望回暖,双重利好之下,油价继续走强。IG市场策略师Yeap Jun Rong表示:”油价最近成功地找到了立足点,因为亚洲大国当局发出更强烈的政策信号,再次点燃了人们对2025年将采取更强有力的刺激措施的希望。”
Rystad Energy石油分析主管Mukesh Sahdev指出,在特朗普2.0政策的利空影响发威之前,亚洲大国的政策变化”不太可能为油价提供太多支撑。”亚洲大国的变化最多只能协助防止进一步下行”。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周三,美元指数稳站106关口上方,最终收涨0.23%,报106.65。美债收益率持续上行,两年期美债收益率收报4.157%,10年期美债收益率收报4.275%。
观点整理:
回顾周三美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线先承压修正,随后依托四小时支撑上行,但是对于欧盘后价格区间震荡,目前整体看价格依旧在区间震荡。后续重点关注106.20-30区间得失,价格一旦下破则后续还有承压。
黄金
市场行情整理:
因美国11月CPI数据符合预期,增加了美联储下周降息的可能性,现货黄金盘中一度冲上2720美元,最终收涨0.89%,报2717.44美元/盎司。现货白银收涨0.02%,报31.89美元/盎司。另外,金银于亚盘时段出现较大的期现价差,金融机构认为市场流动性问题是“罪魁祸首”。
观点整理:
日线突破收敛压力,美联储12月降息预期升温,支撑金价走强,但需要谨防,美联储降息靴子落地之后金价存在冲高回落的风险
原油
市场行情整理:
因欧盟同意对俄罗斯石油出口实施新一轮制裁,这可能会使全球原油供应趋紧,两油涨超2%,WTI原油大幅上涨,盘中一度站上70美元关口上方,最终收涨2.62%,报69.96美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨2.07%,报73.36美元/桶。
观点整理:
如果持续升破70.07美元,原油价格有望反弹。然而,下行风险仍然存在,特别是如果今天的EIA数据显示库存增加高于预期。目前,前景谨慎看涨,但取决于关键的技术和基本面因素。
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