基本面
美指
大摩预计美联储12月和1月降息,期市降息押注激增
摩根士丹利的经济学家预计,美联储将在12月和1月分别降息25个基点。随着买家涌入,1月和2月联邦基金期货上周五的交易量创历史新高。1月份合约的未平仓合约增加了约7%,达到50多万份。2月份合约的未平仓合约增加逾3%,至31.8万份,同样创下纪录。联邦基金期货市场上对美联储将于12月和1月降息的押注规模激增。
随着买家涌入,1月和2月联邦基金期货上周五的交易量创历史新高。有410842份1月合约易手,超过了11月14日的25万多份交易量。11月14日,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,美国经济最近的表现“非常好”,这给予了央行官员以谨慎的速度降息提供了空间。
黄金
美国银行:预计2025年下半年金价将达到3000美元
美国银行称,金价明年仍有望触及每盎司3000美元,但投资者需要保持耐心,因为目前的盘整期可能会持续到明年上半年。受经济不确定性和地缘政治动荡刺激避险需求的推动,金银将在新的一年获得坚实支撑,美国政府不断膨胀的债务是可能支撑金价的一个主要因素,预计各国央行将继续购买黄金并支撑金价。
美国银行的金属研究主管Michael Widmer在上周举行的2025年展望网络研讨会上表示:“目前,黄金只是陷入了一个环境,在此环境中我们没有任何切实的东西可以让投资者重返市场。”尽管面临挑战,但贵金属分析师预计,受经济不确定性和地缘政治动荡刺激避险需求的推动,金银将在新的一年获得坚实支撑。
原油
供需双重支撑之下,多头“王者归来”还是“虚晃一枪”?
基本面上因为叙利亚阿萨德政权被推翻加剧地区不确定性,地缘局势的风险情绪再起,支撑供给端压力情绪走强,而需求端则因亚洲需求预期回暖,使得油价大幅反弹,需要注意的是目前只是情绪上的释放,并未出现反转,毕竟美元依然在高位,同时美原油依然在均线下方运行,等待基本面进一步明朗为主,继续关注美联储12月利率决议,以及本周美国CPI数据。
Rystad Energy地缘政治分析主管Jorge Leon说:"周末在叙利亚发生的事件可能会对原油市场产生影响,并在中东地区更加不稳定的情况下增加未来几周和几个月油价的地缘政治风险溢价。"
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周一,美元指数重回106关口上方,并在这一关口附近小幅震荡,最终收涨0.17%,报106.11。美债收益率小幅回升,两年期美债收益率收报4.131%,10年期美债收益率收报4.203%。
观点整理:
回顾周一美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线先震荡上行,随后短线承压刺破早盘低点位置,但是对于美盘后再度上涨,最终收盘阳线收尾。目前看美元指数持续压制在日线阻力106.40区域,所以在日线阻力没有上破前持续关注此区域承压,后续重点关注106.40-50区间承压,下方则重点关注105.80-105.40区域支撑。
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金周一涨超1%,冲上2660美元关口上方,创近两周以来新高,最终收涨1.04%,报2660.30美元/盎司。现货白银一度涨超3%,但尾盘有所回落,最终收涨2.81%,报31.82美元/盎司。
观点整理:
地缘局势的不确定性支撑避险情绪升温,而美元指数维持低位运行,支撑金价,同时美联储12月降息预期维持在85%左右,日线进入收敛压力区间,等待压力测试
原油
市场行情整理:
因叙利亚局势给中东带来更多不确定性,两油反弹超1%,WTI原油日内持续上涨,并一度涨至68.64美元的日内高点,随后回吐部分涨幅,最终收涨1.4%,报67.90美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨1.22%,报71.75美元/桶。
观点整理:
技术层面上来看,目前美原油日线出现吞没,但依然留出了上影线,市场上涨的动力和决心不足,且价格维持在均线下方运行,短期若无法有效站稳69美元,则维持低位盘整。
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