基本面
美指
预计11月非农就业增加21.4万,将影响到美联储本月利率决议
预计美国劳工统计局将公布,11月份非农就业人数增加21.4万人,较10月份的1.2万人大幅增加。10月数据是自2020年12月以来最糟糕的。这份报告之所以如此重要,原因之一是它将是美联储在12月17日至18日的下一次政策会议之前最后一次全面审视。市场押重注美联储将批准再次降息25个基点,但这可能取决于就业数据的表现。
纽约银行的经济学家Vincent Reinhart表示:如果劳动力市场能够保持稳定,那么它就不会给通胀带来额外的压力。所以美联储在做出利率决定和阐述未来前景时,必须权衡所有这些因素,再加上对通胀上升的担忧。
黄金
黄金为何持续震荡?非农数据或成行情爆发点!
现货黄金探底回升,基本面没有明显的触发因素,可能是因为市场预计美国11月份非农新增就业岗位将大幅反弹,但金价很快受到逢低买盘的支撑,扭转了全部跌势,近期市场风险情绪偏软,避险需求增强,推动黄金价格止跌回升。地缘政治方面,俄乌局势持续紧张,俄罗斯加大了对乌克兰东部的袭击力度。此外,全球经济前景的不确定性加剧了避险情绪,而对美国总统当选人特朗普关税政策的担忧进一步限制了市场对风险资产的兴趣。这些因素共同为黄金提供支撑。
原油
OPEC+再次推迟增产计划,石油需求困境又添特朗普变量
OPEC+再次推迟增加石油产量的计划可能是一个相当容易的决定,全球需求疲软本身就足以证明,该组织有理由在周四的会议上决定将部分减产措施延长到至少4月份。
但需求增长疲软可能是OPEC+最不需要担心的问题,因为特朗普的回归及其可能带来的所有不确定性和相互矛盾的政策将对石油市场造成冲击。特朗普重返美国总统宝座很可能会改变原油市场的态势,但问题是没有人真正知道会以何种方式改变,这使得由石油输出国组织(OPEC)和俄罗斯等盟国组成的OPEC+的决策变得更加棘手。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周四,美元指数有所下行,并失守106关口,最终收跌0.59%,报105.69。美债收益率涨跌不一,两年期美债收益率小幅回升,收报4.150%,10年期美债收益率收报4.175%。
观点整理:
回顾周四美指价格表现,早间开盘后价格短线直接承压,随后价格震荡式下跌,当天价格弱势到收盘,整体上符合对市场的预期。目前看美指依旧下跌表现,所以操作上还是逢高布局空,位置上暂时关注106.00-10区间阻力,待价格到位后关注承压,下方则关注105.50-105.20区域。
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金盘中多次上探2650美元关口,但在美盘前急速下挫,较日内高点一度大跌30美元,最终收跌0.68%,报2631.79美元/盎司。现货白银最终收涨0.1%,报31.32美元/盎司。
观点整理:
美元指数维持在区间之内运行,且美国11月非农数据预期相对乐观,支撑美元走强,施压金价,同时美联储12月降息预期依然处于摇摆之中,短期黄金维持区间对待,等待方向选择。
原油
市场行情整理:
由于投资者权衡了明年供应充足的前景与欧佩克+将增产计划推迟三个月至2025年4月的影响,原油小幅下跌,WTI原油在68美元附近来回震荡,最终收跌0.44%,报68.15美元/桶;布伦特原油收跌0.4%,报71.98美元/桶。
观点整理:
OPEC+预计将延长减产3个月;尽管全球需求疲软,但这一决定可能会在年底前推高油价。中东的地缘政治风险可能扰乱石油市场,给本已动荡的前景增加不确定性。美国原油库存上周大幅下降,为价格提供支撑,并暗示国内供应趋紧。
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