基本面
美指
美国总统大选尚不明朗,美元走软至近两周低位
随着投资者撤回对特朗普赢得美国总统大选的押注,美元下跌。美元指数跌幅约六周以来最大,美元兑日元和澳元等主要货币下跌。此前一系列最新民调数据显示,特朗普没有明显优势。
黄金
美国大选携手美联储决议本周来袭,多数分析师和散户仍看涨后市
金价上周五下跌0.3%,收报2735美元附近,受美元走强和国债收益率走高的打压,金价在创下历史新高后部分多头获利了结,但全球最大经济体就业增长数据疲软,促使分析师加大了对美联储降息的押注,从而限制了部分跌幅。
原油
OPEC+同意推迟增产,多头士气大振,将迎接新一轮涨势?
上周五,美国非农数据意外爆冷,但市场对于美联储降息预期依然存在分歧。有部分观点认为10月非农数据的降低,是因为飓风和波音公司的罢工导致,影响不大,而从美债长端收益率上来看,也没有大幅下跌。需要重点留意美国大选对于美原油需求预期的变化是否形成提振,从而在供给端和需求端上形成共振,带动油价向上突破。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
上周五,尽管美国10月非农就业报告意外疲软,但由于市场意识到受飓风和波音员工罢工扭曲的数据不至于促使美联储大幅降息,美元指数V型反转,并接近收复周内全部跌幅,最终收跌0.4%,报104.31。
观点整理:
目前看美指周线阴十字状态收尾。同时价格跌破日线103.80支撑,所以后续关注美指进一步下跌表现目前四小时上暂时关注104.20-30区间阻力,毕竟目前早盘缺口还没有回补,待后续回补后继续看承压,下方短线关注103.80-103.40区域。
黄金
市场行情整理:
随着美元和美债收益率保持坚挺,现货黄金在非农数据公布后冲高回落,最终收跌0.32%,报2735.16美元/盎司,为连续第二日下跌,创下8月以来最差单周表现。现货白银一度重回33关口,随后持续回吐涨幅,最终收跌0.73%,报32.42美元/盎司。
观点整理:
美国经济数据强劲,施压美联储降息预期,不利金价走强,技术层面均线偏离值较大,存在修正的需求。
原油
市场行情整理:
由于分析师预计伊朗对以色列的报复将是克制的,加之美国原油产量创新高及其经济数据走弱引发需求担忧,国际原油高位回落。WTI原油较日高跌近2美元,最终收跌1.65%,报69.13美元/桶;布伦特原油收跌1.57%,报72.86美元/桶。
观点整理:
在伊朗和以色列紧张局势的推动下,原油价格突破每桶70美元,交易员们为潜在的供应中断做准备。OPEC+考虑推迟12月增产,称需求脆弱和库存增加是主要担忧。
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