IEXS汇市分析|交易员缩减美元押注,因美联储加息前景危及美国经济增长

2022年02月09日 8850点热度 26人点赞 1,839条评论
基本面
​美指
交易员缩减美元押注,因美联储加息前景危及美国经济增长
美联储的加息行动最终成为美元的头号敌人,从而颠覆华尔街今年以来的共识。虽然传统逻辑表明收益率上升应该会提振美元,但交易员目前押注美联储的紧缩政策将阻碍经济增长。随着美元回吐年初以来的涨幅,美元看涨期权的需求已降至九个月最低。这让摩根士丹利、美国银行和花旗集团的美元多头处于守势。
 
黄金
2021年美国贸易逆差再创新高
因消费品进口额激增,美国2021年贸易逆差扩大至历史最高水平。疫情抑制了服务消费,商品支出有所扩大。
美国商务部周二公布的数据显示,全年商品和服务贸易逆差连续第二年扩大,增加26.9%至8591亿美元。12月逆差环比扩大至807亿美元,略低于彭博调查的经济学家830亿美元预估中值。上述数据未经通胀因素调整。
  
原油
伊朗核谈判重新召开
周二于奥地利首都恢复伊朗核谈判之前的一系列外交动作显示,各方正试图达成一项长期以来寻求的协议。美国和伊朗建立信任的姿态引发了新的乐观情绪,即双方距达成协议仅一步之遥,而伊朗可能在年底前再次出口石油,做为伊朗限制核子计划的交换。但在解除制裁的时间以及允许伊朗运行哪些离心机方面仍存在争议。
  
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理: 
美元周二走强,欧元走软,此前一天,欧洲央行行长拉加德反驳了令债市感到不安的激进升息预期。
观点整理:
今日美元指数所面临的上行压力会更大,所以我们可考虑伺机逢高沽空,尽量选择有价值点位布局即可
  
黄金
市场行情整理: 
现货黄金在亚盘和欧盘大部分时间窄幅震荡,美盘初金价一度短线拉升、冲到1794美元的日高,但随着美元反弹,金价持续走低,回落20美元,最终微涨0.03%,报1778.50美元/盎司。
观点整理:
市场对通胀的担忧情绪仍在升温,俄乌紧张局势依旧持续,金价在美国CPI公布前仍有上涨的机会
  
原油
市场行情整理: 
2月9日亚洲时段,现货黄金持稳于1826附近。周二金价三连涨,创两周新高,受通胀担忧加剧和俄乌紧张局势提振,但美元和美股上涨限制了涨幅。
观点整理:
油价昨日回撤,受到美伊核谈判进展及俄乌紧张局势缓解的拖累,日内不排除继续下跌的可能,但市场看涨情绪仍然高涨,后市走强的机会仍然较大。建议激进者逢低做多,保守者观望。

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    In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
    Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.

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    Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.

    This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.

    Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.

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    2024年9月16日
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    It started with a melting glacier that set off a huge landslide, which triggered a 650-foot high mega-tsunami in Greenland last September. Then came something inexplicable: a mysterious vibration that shook the planet for nine days.

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    Today, the lush, green valley surrounding the Tollense River in northeast Germany appears to be a serene place to appreciate nature.

    But to archaeologists, the Tollense Valley is considered Europe’s oldest battlefield.

    An amateur archaeologist first spotted a bone sticking out of the riverbank in 1996.

    A series of ongoing site excavations since 2008 has shown that the thousands of bones and hundreds of weapons preserved by the valley’s undisturbed environment were part of a large-scale battle 3,250 years ago.

    The biggest mysteries that researchers aim to uncover are why the battle occurred and who fought in it. These are questions that they are now one step closer to answering.
    ozens of bronze and flint arrowheads recovered from the Tollense Valley are revealing details about the able-bodied warriors who fought in the Bronze Age battle.

    The research team analyzed and compared the arrowheads, some of which were still embedded in the remains of the fallen. While many of these weapons were locally produced, some bearing different shapes came from a region that now includes modern Bavaria and Moravia.

    The outliers’ presence suggests that a southern army clashed with local tribes in the valley, and researchers suspect the conflict began at a key landmark along the river.

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    Scientists are harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to detect hidden archaeological sites buried below the sand of the sprawling Rub‘ al-Khali desert.

    The desert spans 250,000 square miles (650,000 square kilometers) on the Arabian Peninsula, and its name translates to “the Empty Quarter” in English. To unravel the secrets of the desolate terrain, researchers are combining machine learning with a satellite imagery technique that uses radio waves to spot objects that may be concealed beneath surfaces.

    The technology will be tested in October when excavations assess whether predicted structures are present at the Saruq Al Hadid complex in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

    Separately, an AI-assisted analysis uncovered a trove of ancient symbols in Peru’s Nazca Desert, nearly doubling the number of known geoglyphs, or stone and gravel arranged into giant shapes that depict animals, humans and geometric designs.

    2024年10月4日
  • RobertGes

    Arrowheads reveal the presence of a mysterious army in Europe’s oldest battle
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    Today, the lush, green valley surrounding the Tollense River in northeast Germany appears to be a serene place to appreciate nature.

    But to archaeologists, the Tollense Valley is considered Europe’s oldest battlefield.

    An amateur archaeologist first spotted a bone sticking out of the riverbank in 1996.

    A series of ongoing site excavations since 2008 has shown that the thousands of bones and hundreds of weapons preserved by the valley’s undisturbed environment were part of a large-scale battle 3,250 years ago.

    The biggest mysteries that researchers aim to uncover are why the battle occurred and who fought in it. These are questions that they are now one step closer to answering.
    ozens of bronze and flint arrowheads recovered from the Tollense Valley are revealing details about the able-bodied warriors who fought in the Bronze Age battle.

    The research team analyzed and compared the arrowheads, some of which were still embedded in the remains of the fallen. While many of these weapons were locally produced, some bearing different shapes came from a region that now includes modern Bavaria and Moravia.

    The outliers’ presence suggests that a southern army clashed with local tribes in the valley, and researchers suspect the conflict began at a key landmark along the river.

    Back to the future
    Scientists are harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to detect hidden archaeological sites buried below the sand of the sprawling Rub‘ al-Khali desert.

    The desert spans 250,000 square miles (650,000 square kilometers) on the Arabian Peninsula, and its name translates to “the Empty Quarter” in English. To unravel the secrets of the desolate terrain, researchers are combining machine learning with a satellite imagery technique that uses radio waves to spot objects that may be concealed beneath surfaces.

    The technology will be tested in October when excavations assess whether predicted structures are present at the Saruq Al Hadid complex in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

    Separately, an AI-assisted analysis uncovered a trove of ancient symbols in Peru’s Nazca Desert, nearly doubling the number of known geoglyphs, or stone and gravel arranged into giant shapes that depict animals, humans and geometric designs.

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    Colorful auroras could be visible in areas of the United States such as Alabama and Northern California — much farther south than they typically appear — on Thursday evening due to a powerful solar flare and coronal mass ejection released from the sun, according to the National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

    The severe solar storm, classified as a level 4 on a scale from 1 to 5, also could disrupt communications, the power grid and satellite operations, according to officials at the center.

    The storm is expected to reach Earth between early morning and 12 p.m. ET Thursday, with the potential to last through Friday.

    The intensity and full characteristics of the storm, moving toward Earth at more than 2.5 million miles per hour (about 4 million kilometers per hour), won’t be known until it reaches the Deep Space Climate Observatory and the Advanced Composition Explorer satellites orbiting 1 million miles from Earth.

    The satellites will measure the speed and magnetic intensity of the storm, which is expected to arrive at Earth 15 to 30 minutes after reaching the space observatories, said Shawn Dahl, service coordinator for the Space Weather Prediction Center, at a news briefing Wednesday.

    A series of the most intense type of solar flares, known as X-class flares, have released from the sun this week. The flares also coincided with coronal mass ejections on Tuesday.

    Coronal mass ejections are large clouds of ionized gas called plasma and magnetic fields that erupt from the sun’s outer atmosphere. When these outbursts are directed at Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms, or major disturbances of Earth’s magnetic field.

    “Geomagnetic storms can impact infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth’s surface,” according to the Space Weather Prediction Center.

    As a result, the center has notified the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the North American power grid and satellite operators to prepare for disruptions, especially given the amount of preparations and expected relief efforts for Hurricane Milton, Dahl said.

    Historically, G4 storms are common during a solar cycle, but G5, or extreme geomagnetic storms such the one that occurred on May 10, are incredibly rare, Dahl said. This new storm has a 25% chance of becoming a G5, he said.

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    Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
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    A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.

    Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.

    To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.

    “I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
    Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.

    Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.

    Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.

    Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.

    The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.

    2024年10月13日
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    Thai farmer forced to kill more than 100 endangered crocodiles after a typhoon damaged their enclosure
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    A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.

    Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.

    To stop the crocodiles from getting loose into the local community, Natthapak said, he put 125 of them down on September 22.

    “I had to make the most difficult decision of my life to kill them all,” he told CNN. “My family and I discussed if the wall collapsed the damage to people’s lives would be far bigger than we can control. It would involve people’s lives and public safety.”
    Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.

    Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.

    Natural disasters, including typhoons, pose a range of threats to wildlife, according to the International Fund for Animal Welfare. Flooding can leave animals stranded, in danger of drowning, or separated from their owners or families.

    Rain and strong winds can also severely damage habitats and animal shelters. In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida and destroyed the Little Bear Sanctuary in Punta Gorda, leaving 200 animals, including cows, horses, donkeys, pigs and birds without shelter.

    The risk of natural disasters to animals is only increasing as human-caused climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and volatile.

    2024年10月13日
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