美联储6月会议纪要出炉 预计将继续在缩减QE的门槛上取得进展
纪要承认经济和通胀升幅超出预期,但通胀是暂时的。会议讨论过资产购买,除了建议保持耐心还呈现较大的方法论分歧,特别是MBS和国债能否按比例同步缩减。有分析称,官员们认为会比预期更早地开始缩减购债规模。
据知情官员透露,欧洲央行决策者已同意将通胀目标上调至2%,并在必要时留有超过这一目标的空间。欧洲央行发言人拒绝置评。与之前“在中期低于但接近2%”的目标相比,2%的目标将是一个重大改变。
欧盟预计欧元区GDP将在第四季度恢复到疫情前的水平,将2021年欧元区GDP增长预测从5月的4.3%上调至4.8%,2022年上调至4.5%。欧盟还预计欧元区2021年通胀率为1.9%,2022年为1.4%。
本周欧佩克+不召开会议。阿联酋计划在需求旺盛情况下提高产量和市场份额,认为是时候使石油储备价值“最大化”。阿联酋的战略代表了中东石油国家的转变。当地时间7月8日凌晨,阿联酋迪拜杰贝阿里港口发生火灾。
美国至7月2日当周API原油库存公布,当周API精炼油库存增加108.6万桶,大大高于市场预期的35万桶;当周API汽油库存减少273.6万桶;当周API原油库存减少798.3万桶,远远超过市场预期的392.5万桶。
美元指数小幅下跌,最终收涨0.34%,报92.547
在最近的经济更新之后,由于对通胀和快速经济增长的担忧消退,货币政策预计将保持宽松。
现货黄金日内小幅震荡,最终收涨0.38%,报1803.2美元/盎司
价此前六连涨,不过仍未能强势收于1800上方。尽管MACD率先形成金叉,不过多头似乎并没有做好反攻的准备,在多头强势收复1800之前,空头依然占据盘面主动,金价仍面临较大的下行压力。建议投资者继续逢高做空。
国际油价日内大幅波动,WTI原油期货迅速下跌,日内跌幅达3%,布伦特原油期货跌幅一度达2.58%。截至收盘,WTI原油收跌2.23%,报72.11美元/桶;布伦特原油收跌2.12%,报73.34美元/桶。
油价两连跌,周三公布的API库存数据显示,原油库存依然降幅超预期,当前原油基本面依然相对坚挺,但是OPEC+限产会议未达成给市场留下太多不确定性,前期获利盘开始高位获利了结。建议投资者观望为主,暂避锋芒。
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