
一直以来,美国应对经济危机的最佳方法,就是美国财政部发债筹资,美联储印钞购债,双方完美配合下,大量新美元就这样流入市场。凭借着美元是世界货币的属性,美国即使是大量印钞,该国通胀始终控制在2%的温和范围内。但任何事情都有一个度,如今美国也要为自己疯狂印钞的行动买单了。
美联储资产负债表突破50万亿,美国通胀创13年新高!
北京时间6月10日晚8点,美国劳动部公布的最新数据显示,美国5月整体CPI同比大涨5%,超预期的4.7%,继续维持上涨势头,增速创2008年8月以来最高水平;核心CPI同比增长3.8%,超市场预期3.5%,增速创1992年以来新高;商品价格同比上涨6.5%,创1982年以来最高增速,服务价格也在大幅增长。
尽管美国通胀数据持续上行,但美联储依旧淡定,认为目前美国通胀加剧是暂时性因素造成的,随着时间的推移这些因素会逐渐减弱。或者更加直白地讲,美联储此番表态也暗示暂时不会让其印钞机熄火。
自从2020年3月美联储宣布购债计划以来,其资产负债表规模从当时的4万亿美元(约25万亿元人民币)开始飙涨,到目前为止刚好扩张“翻倍”,突破8万亿美元(约50万亿元人民币)大关。同时,截至今年5月,美国财政部2021财年前八个月的预算赤字已经达到2.06万亿美元,上年同期为1.88万亿元美元。
然而,拜登上台之后提出的各项经济刺激计划总额都达到6万亿美元,但美国财政部家底掏空,加税也似乎行不通,那么唯有继续发债筹资、让美联储印钞购债这条路可以走。这也意味着美国的印钞机将继续马达轰鸣,该国通胀压力有上升的风险。
美国印钞为何不管用?因为中国货是刚需,人民币持续升值!
奇怪的是,以往美国靠印钞转移经济危机的招数打遍天下无敌手,为何这次却没有效果呢?具体来看,为了避免被美元收割,此前美国印钞,全球主要经济体也跟着印钞,要通胀就一起通胀。
但是在全球“大放水”的背景下,中国并没有搞“大水漫灌”,所以美元贬值,人民币就升值。截至今年5月底,人民币兑美元汇率在过去一年升值约12.5%;而人民币升值就相当于用涨价的人民币去买国外涨价的商品,这中间的通胀压力就被对冲掉了,美国印钞导致的输入型通胀也被阻挡在外了。6月10日,中国人民银行行长易纲还预计,今年中国消费物价指数(CPI)平均涨幅在2%以下。
按照惯例,以前人民币升值不利于出口,会削弱中国商品的竞争力,但现在不同了,由于疫情冲击,中国是目前唯一可以保障开工率的制造强国,中国货是刚需,就算人民币升值,中国商品涨价,美国也只能买。今年前五个月,美国就狂买了1.34万亿元人民币的中国商品。
业绩声音指出,目前有三个办法可以解决美国的通胀问题,一是停止印钞,但现在美国做不到;二是豁免中国商品的额外费用,美国却不愿做;三是找到另一个世界工厂,可惜印度太不靠谱,扶不上墙。这三招都不用或者失效,美国也只能“自食苦果”。

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