美国财长耶伦日前说，美国的4万亿美元支出计划对美国有利，即使这可能导致通胀上升并最终致使利率上调。“过去十年来，我们一直在与过低的通胀和利率作斗争，我们希望回到正常的利率环境。如果这有助于缓解一些情况，那么就不是坏事，而是一件好事。”耶伦如此表示。
目前美国联邦基金利率是0-0.25%，基本上处于零利率时代。实际上，由于美国今年一季度GDP修正值为6.4%，随着美国经济的逐步复苏，美联储适当加息是很有可能的。因为如果经济开始稳健复苏，则不需要过低的利率水平“放水”刺激，而应该是逐步收缩货币以维持经济的内生式修复增长。
市场对于美联储货币政策的变化还是有预期的，有几个典型的具体表现。一是对货币政策比较敏感的美国科技股已经提前开始调整，特别是纳斯达克指数在今年2月创下新高后，几乎就在高位徘徊，最近几个月的表现不如道琼斯指数；二是虚拟货币出现了罕见大跌，比特币从最高6万美元以上跌至目前3.6万美元左右，几近腰斩，而虚拟货币的价格波动与市场流动性的松紧有直接关系；三是美元最近开始趋强，美元指数在90附近开始构筑小底，毕竟如果美联储加息，势必会吸引全球流动性重新开始追逐美元。
那么，美国的货币政策如果生变，对全球资本市场和其它国家的货币政策会产生怎样的影响呢？
从理论上讲，美联储如果将联邦基金利率提升到0.5%左右的正常水平，除短期影响外，对资本市场的影响应该不大，毕竟目前保持零利率水平本身就是出于对冲疫情的考虑，而不是因为实体经济出现了根本性问题。如果疫情影响减弱，而实体经济本身并没有受多大影响，那资本市场还是应该按照自己的路子去走。由于美元依旧强势，美国的头部科技公司依旧是华尔街青睐的优质资产，所以美国股市大概率不会出现剧烈波动。
但对于其它国家来说，则需要做好自己的事情。
比如中国，是不是应该跟随加息？这要一分为二地看。美联储会不会一步到位加息？应该不会。因为美联储在维持零利率的同时，还购买了国债向市场补充流动性，如果要收紧流动性，应该从减少购债开始。与此类似，中国的基准利率是1.5%，这已经比美国高了不少，即便美联储加息，也没有我们高。此外，中国央行也采取了多种货币工具调节市场流动性，比如各种各样的中短期借贷便利。因此，即便美联储收缩流动性，我们也可以采取多种手段应对，而不是非要跟随加息。
对于A股市场，目前阶段已经属于相对宽松的窗口期，但A股从指数上看依旧没有多大起色。从大机构的角度看，货币政策的调整可能会影响自己的投资风格，但这最多也影响的是“抱团资产”的估值中枢，对于大多数“八类”个股来说，决定股价的还是市场存量资金的炒作喜好。
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