6月3日，人民币(6.4063, 0.0025, 0.04%)对美元汇率中间价报6.3811元，较前一交易日下调38点，为连续两日下调。在岸人民币对美元即期汇率先行贬破6.39元，连续三日贬值。鉴于境外上市中资企业购汇需求季节性上升和美元汇率走势存在较大变数，专家表示，目前，人民币汇率单边升值预期正趋于减弱。企业应树立“风险中性”理念，避免“炒汇”行为。
市场汇率下调
中国人民银行5月31日宣布，自6月15日起，上调金融机构外汇存款准备金率2个百分点，即外汇存款准备金率由现行的5%提高到7%。中国证券报记者6月2日获悉，国家外汇管理局近日向17家机构发放合格境内机构投资者（QDII）额度103亿美元。
“上述举措体现了有关部门围绕保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的目标，采取增加汇率弹性、有序扩大金融市场双向开放的外汇政策组合拳思路。”中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛说，央行、外汇局大招频出，赌人民币汇率单边升贬值可休矣。
在这一背景下，人民币汇率继续展开“回归之旅”。6月3日日间交易时段，在岸、离岸人民币对美元即期汇率盘中接连失守6.38元、6.39元。在岸人民币16时30分收盘价报6.3932元，较前一交易日贬值60点，连续第三日贬值。离岸人民币汇率盘中震荡走低，截至17时，报6.3900元，贬值62点。
阶段性调整压力料增大
专家表示，境外上市中资企业集中大额分红购汇及美元指数(90.5672, 0.0667, 0.07%)可能回升将助推人民币汇率贬值。
“6月和7月是传统分红购汇高峰期，在香港市场上市的中资企业将集中购汇。从已公布分红计划看，2021年在香港市场上市的中资企业分红购汇规模预计700亿美元，绝大部分集中在6月至8月。”兴业银行首席经济学家、华福证券首席经济学家鲁政委表示，人民币汇率调整的可能性上升，企业购汇节奏或前移。
从以往情况看，集中分红购汇会增加人民币汇率贬值压力。鲁政委举例说，即便在人民币汇率存在单边升值预期的2011年，6月至7月也出现了阶段性贬值，主要与境外上市中资企业集中分红购汇有关。再比如，2016年6月至7月人民币汇率贬值幅度也较大。
专家强调，受多重因素叠加影响，需警惕人民币汇率贬值风险。中欧国际工商学院教授、中国人民银行调查统计司原司长盛松成此前表示，近期人民币汇率升值过快，有可能已出现超调。
从美元走势来看，专家认为，美联储6月3日宣布将开始逐步出售所持公司债和投资于公司债交易所交易基金，以及美联储官员表示希望尽快展开缩减购债讨论，美元指数在前期低点附近获得有力支撑，不排除大幅回升的可能。
首创证券首席经济学家韦志超表示，人民币汇率进一步大幅升值可能性不大，中期走势仍将受美元指数变动影响。
企业应树立风险中性理念
市场人士认为，汇率单边快速升值或贬值易造成企业放松主营业务，进行汇率套利，进而损害实体经济。日前召开的全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议强调，企业和金融机构都应积极适应汇率双向波动的状态。企业要聚焦主业，树立“风险中性”理念，避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为，不要赌人民币汇率升值或贬值，久赌必输。
多家企业近期表示已使用外汇套期保值工具对冲风险。有上市公司在投资者关系互动平台上表示，汇率波动对有进出口业务的公司会有影响，在人民币持续升值背景下，海外收入会有缩水现象，但公司进口采购业务会抵消部分影响。针对汇率波动，公司已经主动进行一些风险可控的外汇套期保值业务，在一定程度上可控制汇率波动风险。
另有上市公司表示，汇率波动会对公司利润产生一定影响，公司会根据汇率波动趋势使用外汇套期工具对冲风险。
国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人王春英日前表示，外汇局将继续加强企业汇率风险管理宣传培训和辅导。加大外汇市场政策供给。在深化外汇市场建设方面，不断丰富交易工具，完善交易机制，提升外汇市场的透明度，增强交易便利性，更好地满足市场主体风险管理的需求。上交所产品创新中心副总经理陈代云此前表示，上交所对ETF市场的定位是“ETF让投资更加便捷”。上交所ETF市场发展呈现规模持续增长，流动性亚洲最佳，投资者人数大幅提升，产品和机制创新方面不断取得突破，ETF产品线进一步丰富。
挖掘新投资机会
平安基金ETF指数投资部总监成钧表示，甄别哪些公司能基业长青是比较困难的，因此分散化投资是客观存在的迫切需求，指数投资解决了选股难、选基难的问题。
鹏华基金副总裁高鹏说，鹏华基金多年来一直在积极探索布局各类被动指数产品，截至2020年底管理的权益类ETF规模近70亿元，今后将在行业主题方向上继续探索，积极挖掘新的投资机会和方向。
王乐乐认为，从长期投资角度看，可在优质赛道里按照节奏布局。投资者在投资过程中，需要关注“盈亏比”。创金合信基金首席量化投资官、创金合信沪深300指数增强基金经理董梁说，近两三年来，随着外资和内地机构投资者持仓市值加大，话语权变强，A股投资生态逐渐转向价值投资。
“在市场演进过程中虽有风格异动，但整体不改资金向头部公司集中的趋势。因此，聚焦上证50、沪深300、中证500的宽基指数产品，值得重点关注。”董梁说。
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