旧金山联储最新公布的一份报告显示，美国就业市场信号的矛盾程度达到了“前所未有”的程度，需要重视那些显示就业市场低迷的信号。
该报告通过研究26项通常会同步变动的劳动力市场指标，发现在当前的经济复苏中，这些指标对就业市场的健康状况发出了截然不同的信号。例如，失业率显示美国就业市场正在恢复，然而，职位空缺率和劳动力参与率都显示，就业市场疲软程度可能比想象中严重得多。
早前，美联储高级官员布拉德在接受英国《金融时报》采访时也表示，数据显示，尽管非农就业人数比流感爆发前的水平仅低800万个，但其它指标远未及正常水平，这与劳动力短缺的坊间证据相符。
因此，他建议美联储多关注其他表示就业市场紧张的指标，尤其是失业率与职位空缺比率，2020年2月，该比率为0.8，在美国第一次疫情封锁期间上升至5，2021年3月又回落至1.2。可见，劳动力市场的状况比一些主要数据所显示的要糟糕。
此外，雇主也普遍报告招聘困难。布拉德称：
“尽管有些公司说他们会继续提高工人的工资，但实际上很多公司因为劳动力短缺只能继续关闭。”
在这样的压力下，美国已有近一半的州选择退出额外的每周失业救济金，来应对工人短缺问题和刺激招聘。
美联储此前表示，美国经济必须在通胀和劳动力市场方面取得实质性进展时才会开始缩减资产购买规模。而美联储副主席夸尔斯上周指出，尽管最近消费者价格指数的上涨表明，通胀方面的考验已经通过，但劳动力市场的情况仍未达预期。
需要注意的是，虽然官员布拉德提到就业市场的下行风险，但他是众多支持及早讨论缩减QE的官员之一。布拉德认为，缩减QE的讨论是基于疫情何时得到充分控制的判断，具体要看6月份FOMC会议的决定。
一边看衰经济，一边又要求尽早讨论减码刺激，他是怎么解释的呢？
布拉德认为，美联储在就业目标上已经取得了不少进展，但还未完全达标，一味等待就业和劳动参与率全面复苏可能是徒劳的，他表示：
“尽管经济和GDP都在飞速增长，我仍不确定就业情况是否会随之好转。但如果我们认为疫情已经结束并开始讨论改变货币政策，可能会更好。”
他依然预计未来一段时间内每月新增就业人数不会高达100万。
相比之下，布拉德对通胀的看法似乎相对温和。他预计2022年前通胀将持续高于2%的目标，但在他看来这完全符合美联储在经济反弹时推高价格的目标。
他补充称，他对美联储去年夏天推出的新政策框架非常满意，因为该框架高度容忍一段时间内的高通胀，以便追求充分就业。他表示：
“只有用高通胀弥补一段时间的低通胀损失，这样才能真正实现平均2%的通胀目标。”
一些经济学家、投资者和很多共和党议员对美联储提出批评，称美联储可能会被迫大幅调整路线，以防止上世纪70年代那样的通胀螺旋式上升出现，布拉德对此进行了强烈回击：
“我觉得不太可能看到70年代和80年代初的通货膨胀那种爆发程度。我们现在处于完全不同的状态，我们正在实施的货币政策策略是正确和合理的。”
在谈到未来的加息时，布拉德表示，美联储将谨慎行事，只有在资产购买计划结束后才会将利率从超低水平上调，而这与金融危机后使用的“战术”大致相同。
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