
周一英镑持续走高,周二早盘已经升至三年高位。
周二亚盘,疫苗带动经济增长的希望推动英镑兑美元一度上涨0.3%至1.4248,突破2月份的峰值,升至2018年4月以来的最高水平,年初至今涨幅达4.2%,其中5月上涨2.8%,为连续第二个月上涨。
英镑正受两大动力推动走高
交易员押注英国经济复苏将随着新冠疫苗的推出而获得动力。
根据现有数据,如果依照目前的接种速度,四分之三的英国人口将在一个月内完成接种两剂疫苗。分析师Toshiya Yamauchi表示,英镑受到青睐,因为疫苗接种的进展使英国比其他国家更接近经济正常化,镑美有望迈向1.45水平。
增长前景的改善也加剧了人们猜测英国央行将加入加拿大和新西兰的行列,发出明年可能开始加息的信号。
根据彭博汇编的数据,隔夜指数掉期交易表明英国央行在2022年8月前提高基准利率的可能性为 46%。加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets )驻香港策略师 Alvin T. Tan 表示:
“英国的经济复苏以及对英国央行结束资产购买和加息的相关预期不断升温,正在推动看涨英镑的押注。”
专家:有迹象表明英国已处于第三波疫情初期
英国当局计划在6月21日全面开放经济,尽管传染性极强的印度变异病毒依然是一大风险。
据英媒报道,为政府提供医疗咨询建议的科学家表示,有迹象表明英国正处于第三波新冠肺炎疫情的初期。
英国剑桥大学病毒学及临床微生物学教授拉温德拉·古普塔表示,尽管英国新近感染新冠病毒的病例整体数字“相对较低”,但首先在印度出现的变异病毒感染情况却出现了“指数级增长”的态势。
古普塔教授指出,英国已经进入到新冠肺炎第三波疫情的初期,目前至少有四分之三的病例都是感染的首次在印度发现的变异病毒。古普塔教授解释称:
“当然,目前的感染数字和前两次疫情相比还相对较少,但前两次疫情的高峰也都是从少数感染个别案件引发的,所以这里的关键是我们已看到了再次大规模暴发的早期征兆。”
他强调指出,目前在英国接种新冠疫苗的成年人比例比较高,这意味着与以往相比,本轮疫情暴发可能需要更长的时间才会出现。他还呼吁称:
“一段时间内可能会有一种错误的安全感,这是我们应该特别注意的。”
古普塔坚持认为,政府应该推迟执行6月21日进一步解除英格兰地区新冠疫情防疫封锁限制的决定。
据美国霍普金斯大学网站数据,英国累计确诊病例约448万人,30日新增确诊病例3111人。目前,英国已连续五天日增确诊超过3000例,尤其28日新增确诊病例4028人,是自4月12日以来的感染数字新高。
然而,首相约翰逊表示,没有决定性的理由要延迟解除封锁。

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