币圈崩黄金涨 谁才是未来避险之王?

2021年05月21日 8867点热度 0人点赞 2,084条评论

币圈崩黄金涨 谁才是未来避险之王?

周三,比特币一度狂泻30%,加密货币市场也集体暴跌。与此同时,黄金出现了大反弹,隔夜一度逼近1900美元/盎司,刷新1月11日以来的新高。

币圈崩,黄金涨。

周三,比特币一度狂泻30%,加密货币市场也集体暴跌。而在比特币价格触及3万美元关口后又迅速反弹,一度回升至42000美元之上,反弹超12000美元,反弹幅度达40%。与此同时,黄金出现了大反弹,隔夜一度逼近1900美元/盎司,刷新1月11日以来的新高。

  超77万人比特币爆仓

比特币和黄金之争的话题,近期一直非常热门。由于价格一路攀升,比特币的总市值早已进入美股前十。“这十几年比特币的价格已经从几美分上最高冲至6万美元。即使暴跌,现在也在4万美元左右,早已经证明了自己的价值。它正在逐渐靠近全球主流资产,类似于黄金、房子、债券这样的投资标的。”某比特币研究人员称。

高盛首席执行官所罗门(David Solomon)更是预测,未来几年数字货币领域将发生“重大变革”。他表示:“这是一个不断发展的领域,我认为未来几年这一领域的发展将会有很大的变化。”对于加密货币领域面临的一些挑战,他补充说:“我们周围有重大的监管限制,我们围绕比特币等加密货币发挥着原则作用。”

与黄金相比,所罗门说:“我认为比特币的市值将不可避免地与黄金持平,然后最终高于黄金。因为人们对于比特币的接受和投入的速度比我预测的还要快。”

他仍然认为比特币属于一种资产,在采访中,他从未将比特币描述为一种支付机制。他认为,比特币“更像黄金而不是支付网络的数字资产,因此其价值将在未来几年继续上升。”

有着女版巴菲特之称的ARK基金创始人、女股神Cathie Wood一直力挺比特币,19日币圈“海啸”,她表示:“我仍然认为比特币价格会达到50万美元。比特币目前正经历踏空,但不一定处于底部。”

最近被称为比特币“叛变”的特斯拉CEO马斯克也在周三晚暴跌之际发声,他表示“特斯拉拥有钻石手(Diamond Hand)”,而钻石手代指那些坚定持仓者,这被认为是特斯拉将坚定持有手中的比特币,即使它们的价值目前已经缩水一半。

根据相关数据统计,最近24小时,共有约77.57万人成为爆仓受害者,最大单笔爆仓单发生在 Huobi-BTC,价值高达6700.01万美元。

 黄金攀升至近四个月新高

黄金则是熠熠生辉,比特币爆仓之际,黄金一路从1851.6美元/盎司,拉升至1889.59美元/盎司,创下自1月11日以来的新高。不过午夜随着比特币反弹,黄金也出现调整回落,今日亚洲时段,黄金再度重拾升势,一路上涨,盘中涨幅已经逼近1%。

“金价从高位回落了不少,近期确实有部分抄底黄金的投资者,特别是五一期间。金价突破1800美元/盎司之后,我认为是短期的底部已经确立,未来上涨的可能性增加,短线的目标,我看到1900美元/盎司,期间可能会有所波动,但是整体会底部抬升。” 广东省黄金协会副会长兼首席黄金分析师朱志刚对21世纪经济报道记者表示。

世界黄金协会最新发布的数据显示,4月份全球黄金ETF(交易所买卖基金)持仓继续下跌,但速度明显放缓,其中欧洲的黄金ETF基金规模更是自1月以来首次上升。

统计显示,月内黄金ETF总持仓减少18.3吨(约合11亿美元,资产管理规模减少0.5%,下同),是过去半年来第五次出现净流出的月份。北美基金(尤其是美国的基金)仍然主导全球黄金ETF的净流出,持仓减少28.4吨(16亿美元,-1.6%)。相反,在法国、瑞士和英国等国基金的贡献之下,欧洲的黄金ETF实现了10.6吨(5.14亿美元,+0.6%)的净流入。

亚洲上市基金则一反今年一季度的强劲势头,录得0.5吨(1300万美元)的小幅流出,其中,中国黄金(17.290-0.16-0.92%)ETF基金持仓减少了2吨(1.11亿美元,-2.8%)。印度基金持仓则继续增长,4月新增1.3吨(8400万美元,+4.4%)。

报告指出,全球黄金ETF资产管理规模自2020年11月达到峰值以来,至今已下跌近14%,其中8%源于黄金ETF流出,6%是由因抛售导致的美元金价下跌所致。

世界黄金协会表示,近期黄金的强势可归因于美元疲软、金价正在“再通胀”周期中追赶其他大宗商品的强劲表现,以及财政刺激措施的增加以及央行持续的宽松立场。

华泰期货分析师陈思捷表示,美联储将于北京时间周四(5月20日)2:00公布最近一次政策会议纪要,预计美联储将证实,决策层仍认为它们距离加息仍有一段时间。美联储决策层已经反复强调,近期通胀飙升只是暂时的,并重申预计利率将维持在较低水平。美联储决心通过低利率和购买债券来刺激经济,直到生产和就业缺口完全弥合,并准备在一定程度上容忍物价涨幅高于目标。不过19日就商品整体波动较大,原油价格出现大幅下挫,从而致使工业品整体走弱。而这在一定程度上或许会对于通胀预期产生负面影响,叠加美元指数从低位反弹,使得贵金属价格也呈现出了冲高回落的情况。不过就当下操作而言,由于美联储会议纪要中仍是以相对鸽派的态度为主,因此在这样的情况下,美元的反弹或仍难以持久,故此对于贵金属而言,目前仍以逢低做多的思路为主。

开源证券赵伟团队开宗明义表示,比特币暂时还无法取代黄金,成为避险之王。赵伟团队表示,比特币目前并不具备避险属性,价格走势与主流央行政策宽松力度密切相关。2020年9月以来,比特币持续领涨全球资本市场;部分市场观点认为,比特币将取代黄金、成为全球新的避险资产之王。

黄金、美债等能成为优质避险资产,缘于能够对冲风险偏好回落,并具备低波动率、高流动性、大市值等特征。 与黄金等避险资产相比,比特币波动率高、流动性差、市值非常小;回溯历史数据,风险资产剧烈调整阶段,比特币常常同步大跌。历史数据显示,比特币与黄金走势频频背离,与衡量风险偏好的VIX指数也无稳健相关关系。2018年以来,美股标普500指数先后经历了3次剧烈调整,跌幅分别达到8.5%、19.1%、33.7%;同期,比特币分别大幅下跌21.6%、37.5%、32.4%,表现远不如黄金等避险资产。

比特币尚不具备避险属性;但是,由于能行使部分一般等价物职能及数量相对稀缺,比特币的价格实际上隐含了成为全球性“保值货币”的预期,在主流央行“大放水”阶段往往大涨。中短期来看,伴随全球经济在疫苗支持下修复加快、主流央行政策退出预期抬升,比特币价格波动或将加大。长期而言,比特币能否真正成为全球性“保值货币”,与数字货币发展、监管政策变化等密切相关。

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    “I’ve waited for three years to have this moment to share a movie with you but I’ve waited my whole life to have this moment, to have a fifth child right now,” he said in the video, as the audience was heard collectively “aww-ing” at the sentiment.

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    According to a statement issued by the Thai prime minister’s office, the Destination Thailand Visa (DTV) will allow eligible travelers a period of stay up to 180 days per visit, on a multiple-entry basis, within five years. (This means they will need to leave the country when their 180 days are up, and the time resets when they re-enter.)
    The government statement says the visa is open to several categories of remote workers, including digital nomads and freelancers. It’s also aimed at those looking to visit to engage in activities such as Muay Thai training or Thai cooking classes, or come for extended medical treatments.

    To apply, travelers need to show evidence that they have a minimum of 500,000 baht (about $13,800) in funds, as well as documents to support the purpose of their visit, such as a letter from a medical center or proof of employment

    2024年11月14日
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    But at night, they serve as de-facto living rooms, especially for young Muslims who don’t go to clubs and bar. From New York to Dallas, especially during the late nights of Ramadan, the crowd overflows into the street and you often have to yell to be heard inside. Some young Muslims even venture to the coffee shops in hopes of finding a life partner.

    Nowhere is this coffeehouse culture more pronounced, and celebrated, than in Dearborn, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit and home to one of the largest Arab American communities in the United States.

    Downtown Dearborn is peppered with different Yemeni coffee houses, which Howell said helped revitalize the Detroit area after the city became the largest municipality go to bankrupt in 2013. And it’s only growing.

    “It’s become sort of contagious,” Howell said. “Several Yemeni entrepreneurs are opening coffee houses of their own, each with its own sort of style and atmosphere.”

    The coffee chains have big ambitions beyond Dearborn. Qahwah House hopes to open another 20 to 30 locations in the next year, spanning across 12 states and Canada, Alhasbani said. They are also licensed out, but Alhasbani says he sets a high standard before agreeing to let anyone open a shop.

    “We have too many people that come (asking me) they want to open. I have more than 10 different requests a day just to open this kind of business,” he said. “We don’t give anyone license until we make sure the person has the love for the brand and his mind and his heart in the Qahwah House.”
    Another authentic Yemeni coffee chain, Haraz, also sees crowds of people throughout the day and night. They opened their first location in New York City last week — less than half a mile away from Qahwah House’s downtown Manhattan shop — and the franchisees plan to grow.

    2024年11月14日
  • Ronaldedula

    A giant meteorite boiled the oceans 3.2 billion years ago. Scientists say it was a ‘fertilizer bomb’ for life
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    A massive space rock, estimated to be the size of four Mount Everests, slammed into Earth more than 3 billion years ago — and the impact could have been unexpectedly beneficial for the earliest forms of life on our planet, according to new research.

    Typically, when a large space rock crashes into Earth, the impacts are associated with catastrophic devastation, as in the case of the demise of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, when a roughly 6.2-mile-wide (10-kilometer) asteroid crashed off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in what’s now Mexico.

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    “No complex life had formed yet, and only single-celled life was present in the form of bacteria and archaea,” Drabon wrote in an email. “The oceans likely contained some life, but not as much as today in part due to a lack of nutrients. Some people even describe the Archean oceans as ‘biological deserts.’ The Archean Earth was a water world with few islands sticking out. It would have been a curious sight, as the oceans were probably green in color from iron-rich deep waters.”

    When the S2 meteorite hit, global chaos ensued — but the impact also stirred up ingredients that might have enriched bacterial life, Drabon said. The new findings could change the way scientists understand how Earth and its fledgling life responded to bombardment from space rocks not long after the planet formed.

    2024年11月14日
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  • Peterhouct

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    Japan is famed for its skilled artisans, masters who maintain a commitment to tradition while modernizing production techniques in line with the development of new materials and processes.

    Many places in the country have grown famous by focusing on specific crafts, from exquisite kimonos to perfectly designed knives. Among them is the small city of Sabae, in Fukui prefecture, about a 3.5-hour train ride from Tokyo.
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    It’s widely known as Japan’s eyeglasses capital – and for good reason. Sabae produces over 90% of the frames manufactured in the country, according to the local government. Signs and objects shaped like eyeglasses can be found on city streets, and there’s even a museum and festival devoted to spectacles.
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    Sabae, located on Japan’s main Honshu island near the city of Fukui, has been producing quality eyewear for more than a century.

    It all started in 1905, when a local government official invited skilled eyeglasses artisans to come to the city to teach their craft, an attempt to create new opportunities for local farmers.

    The move paid off. Today, Sabae has over 100 companies that collaborate to make pairs of glasses.

    Though these studios use cutting-edge machinery to produce new frames made of metal and acetate, most stages still require the skilled hands and trained eyes of Sabae’s master artisans.

    That includes Takeshi Yamae, a frame designer with Japanese brand Boston Club who has lived in the city for 17 years. He tells CNN one pair of glasses can involve more than 200 steps.

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    2024年11月15日
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    Japan is famed for its skilled artisans, masters who maintain a commitment to tradition while modernizing production techniques in line with the development of new materials and processes.

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    It’s widely known as Japan’s eyeglasses capital – and for good reason. Sabae produces over 90% of the frames manufactured in the country, according to the local government. Signs and objects shaped like eyeglasses can be found on city streets, and there’s even a museum and festival devoted to spectacles.
    The art of making spectacles
    Sabae, located on Japan’s main Honshu island near the city of Fukui, has been producing quality eyewear for more than a century.

    It all started in 1905, when a local government official invited skilled eyeglasses artisans to come to the city to teach their craft, an attempt to create new opportunities for local farmers.

    The move paid off. Today, Sabae has over 100 companies that collaborate to make pairs of glasses.

    Though these studios use cutting-edge machinery to produce new frames made of metal and acetate, most stages still require the skilled hands and trained eyes of Sabae’s master artisans.

    That includes Takeshi Yamae, a frame designer with Japanese brand Boston Club who has lived in the city for 17 years. He tells CNN one pair of glasses can involve more than 200 steps.

    “I first design it, sketch it, then put it into my computer,” he says. “From the time I start designing, to the time I have the perfect product, it takes more than a year.”

    2024年11月15日
  • Robertjic

    How a drab Soviet metropolis became Central Asia’s capital of cool
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    Several cities around the globe have reinvented themselves in recent years, but none more successfully than Almaty.

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    Along the way, the city has developed one of the world’s most beautiful metro systems, grown into a thriving banking and finance center, complemented its vintage bazaars with luxury boutiques and modern shopping malls and reshaped its traditional gastronomy into a nouvelle cuisine that’s drawing raves from foodies around the world.

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    Keen adds that whenever he tells someone back home that he lives in Kazakhstan, “Borat” inevitably comes up. The movie’s title character doesn’t paint a very flattering portrait of the Central Asian nation. But nowadays one is tempted to think that if Borat visited Almaty now, he would say, “Very nice!”

    2024年11月15日
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    Japan is famed for its skilled artisans, masters who maintain a commitment to tradition while modernizing production techniques in line with the development of new materials and processes.

    Many places in the country have grown famous by focusing on specific crafts, from exquisite kimonos to perfectly designed knives. Among them is the small city of Sabae, in Fukui prefecture, about a 3.5-hour train ride from Tokyo.
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    It’s widely known as Japan’s eyeglasses capital – and for good reason. Sabae produces over 90% of the frames manufactured in the country, according to the local government. Signs and objects shaped like eyeglasses can be found on city streets, and there’s even a museum and festival devoted to spectacles.
    The art of making spectacles
    Sabae, located on Japan’s main Honshu island near the city of Fukui, has been producing quality eyewear for more than a century.

    It all started in 1905, when a local government official invited skilled eyeglasses artisans to come to the city to teach their craft, an attempt to create new opportunities for local farmers.

    The move paid off. Today, Sabae has over 100 companies that collaborate to make pairs of glasses.

    Though these studios use cutting-edge machinery to produce new frames made of metal and acetate, most stages still require the skilled hands and trained eyes of Sabae’s master artisans.

    That includes Takeshi Yamae, a frame designer with Japanese brand Boston Club who has lived in the city for 17 years. He tells CNN one pair of glasses can involve more than 200 steps.

    “I first design it, sketch it, then put it into my computer,” he says. “From the time I start designing, to the time I have the perfect product, it takes more than a year.”

    2024年11月15日
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    ‘We barely made it out’: Californians desperately flee their homes amid raging wildfires
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    Terrie Morin, 60, and her husband, Dave, were at the barber shop when they heard about a raging wildfire making headway toward their Camarillo home on Wednesday morning.

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    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

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    2024年11月16日
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    Terrie Morin, 60, and her husband, Dave, were at the barber shop when they heard about a raging wildfire making headway toward their Camarillo home on Wednesday morning.

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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

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    Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.

    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

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    At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.

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    2024年11月16日
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    Terrie Morin, 60, and her husband, Dave, were at the barber shop when they heard about a raging wildfire making headway toward their Camarillo home on Wednesday morning.

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    “I run in the house, and I’m banging on the door, and they did not hear me. They were knocked out,” Morin told CNN. “Get the dog. Get out of here. You don’t have time, just get out!” she recalled telling them.
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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

    “It was hot. It was so hot,” Morin recalled.

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    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

    The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.

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    Ten people endured non-life-threatening injuries from the Mountain Fire, which are mostly related to smoke inhalation, Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff said.

    2024年11月16日
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    Terrie Morin, 60, and her husband, Dave, were at the barber shop when they heard about a raging wildfire making headway toward their Camarillo home on Wednesday morning.

    The couple were hosting two guests at the time, but because their guests worked late, Morin suspected they slept through the residence’s fire alarms.

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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

    “It was hot. It was so hot,” Morin recalled.

    Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.

    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

    The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.

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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

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    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

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    2024年11月17日
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