周三(5月19日),欧元/美元在1.2158价格区间内交易,日内下跌。该货币对在1.2245见顶,并在跌破1.2200关口时迅速遇到买家,主要受市场人气的带动,后者与政府国债收益率相关。德国10年期国债收益率攀升至两年来的最高水平,而美国10年期国债在欧洲市场开盘时达到1.67%的高点,为美元提供了暂时的支撑。欧洲和美国股市下跌,但随着收益率回落,股市从盘中低点反弹。
数据方面,欧盟公布了4月份通胀数据的终值。消费者价格指数同比上涨1.6%,与预期一致,但核心指数从此前的0.8%收缩至0.7%。
在美国,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)公布了其最近一次会议的纪要,重新触发了美元需求,因为一些成员愿意在即将举行的会议上讨论缩减购债规模。股市回跌,而政府债券收益率突破上述高点,创下一周新高。
本周四,欧盟将公布3月份经常账户和建筑业产出数据。美国将公布截至5月14日当周的5月费城联储制造业调查和初请失业金人数,后者预计为40.5万人。
在此背景下,FXStreet首席分析师Valeria Bedanrik周五(5月14日)撰文就欧元、英镑、日元、澳元的最新走势进行了分析预测:
欧元/美元
欧元/美元在1.2159的日低点附近交易,并有继续下跌的风险。4小时图表显示,它目前正在与温和的20移动平均线做斗争,准备跌破20移动平均线。长期移动均线继续走高,远低于当前水平,而技术指标在积极水平内急剧下降。一旦跌破1.2140这一近期支撑位,跌势可能获得动能。
下行支撑:1.2140 1.2095 1.2050
上行阻力:1.2245 1.2290 1.2330
英镑/美元
英镑/美元短期内面临继续下跌的风险,不过这将继续取决于投资者是否决定买入或卖出美元。4小时图表显示,该货币对已跌破20移动平均线,而技术指标加速下跌,RSI目前位于47,如跌破日低,汇价预计将继续看跌。
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