周二(5月18日)欧市盘中,欧股多数反弹走高,全球市场情绪转向积极,投资者聚焦本周将公布的美联储会议纪要。
针对市场表现,FXTM研究分析师Lukman Otunuga撰文进行分析,内容如下:
最近,对通胀的担忧不断加剧,令市场紧张不安。
美国股市周一下跌,受科技股下跌拖累,因对物价上涨的担忧削弱了风险情绪。尽管今天上午亚洲股市开盘走高,美国股指期货看涨,但周三联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要前的谨慎态度可能会限制股市的涨幅。
美联储的政策制定者一再淡化通胀风险,认为这只是暂时的。然而,最近整个金融市场的波动表明,投资者的想法并非如此。
如果通胀被证明持续的时间更长,这可能会迫使美联储(Fed)尽早采取行动。这样的事态发展对股市来说将是坏消息,尤其是对利率上升敏感的昂贵成长型股票。
美元在周二的交易中遭遇新的压力,原因是美联储主席克拉里达(Clarida)发表了鸽派言论,称4月劳动力市场报告逊于预期,现在谈论缩减购债还为时过早。
FOMC公认的“鹰派”成员——达拉斯联储主席卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)周一也发表讲话,称他认为物价压力将在2022年得到缓解。
本月美元兑10国集团所有货币都走软,美元指数逼近2月底以来的最低水平。
如果美元指数日收盘价稳定在心理支撑位90.00下方,这意味着将进一步下行,89.70将成为空头首个感兴趣的水平。
周二上午,欧元兑除美元和日元以外的G10所有货币均小幅走低,欧元区第一季度GDP修正值公布。
数据显示,欧元区第一季度GDP年率修正值录得-1.8%,与疫情相符合。
从技术层面来看,如果欧元兑美元的日收盘价稳定在1.2170以上,则有可能继续走高,这是受美元走弱推动的。
黄金多头继续从美元走软和通胀担忧中获利。金价本月已上涨5.7%,随着通胀担忧继续加剧,价格可能继续上涨。
本周黄金收盘价可能受到联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要的影响,但若金价有效突破1870美元,可能为升向1900美元打开大门。
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