随着美国通胀数据的公布，全球市场对通胀的担忧正在成为现实。美国4月整体CPI同比大增4.2%，增速创13年来新高。即便如此，美联储官员仍在强调今年通胀的任何回升都是暂时的。
这引发了全球投资者“用脚投票”，非但美国股债双杀，也引发全球金融市场大震荡。在空前的财政政策和货币政策刺激下，“印钞者”始终对持续数月的大宗商品价格上涨熟视无睹，更让市场对于通胀前景的担忧进一步强化。
作为全球最大的需求方——美国在财政政策和货币政策上不遗余力，1.9万亿美元的一揽子刺激政策刚落地，2.3万亿美元基建计划已在酝酿之中。而作为全球最大的供给方——中国则保持政策定力，拒绝“大水漫灌”。4月份社融、信贷、M2增速均大幅回落。
全球流动性过剩叠加全球供需结构性错配，可能导致全球通胀的强度与持续时间出现意想不到的结果，让全球经济呈现出一种类似“滞胀”的局面。一方面通胀大幅上行，另一方面却是经济复苏依然不够有力，各国的结构性矛盾反而进一步凸显。这远非一国货币当局可捭阖纵横化解。
由是观之，独立性远不如昔的美联储，早已没有了加快紧缩步伐抗通胀的行动勇气。对于投资者而言，美联储“通胀风险是暂时性”的判断是否准确已不重要，重要的是应该为通胀上涨预期驱动的实际利率上行带来的负面冲击，做好心理准备。
数据显示，自3月下旬至今，10年期美债收益率持续在1.70%附近徘徊，而衡量股市投资者恐慌情绪和市场风险的芝加哥期权交易所恐慌指数，尽管有所抬头，但仍在历史低点附近。这从侧面显示，当前市场对于全球通胀风险预期仍然不够充分，低估了美国通胀上行风险，一些投资者对于通胀预期是否会实现以及经济动能可持续多久，仍持犹豫态度。
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