CPI破4!美联储二把手淡定回应宽松不变,市场为何不领情

2021年05月13日 3057点热度 0人点赞 342条评论

CPI破4!美联储二把手淡定回应宽松不变,市场为何不领情

  克拉里达重申,随着经济重新开放,物价上涨将是一次性的,通胀会在今年晚些时候回落。

因经济重启叠加需求旺盛,美国上月消费者价格指数(CPI)创下近12年来最高涨幅,而供应链和用工持续紧张正在加剧对通胀长期走高的担忧,欧美股市风声鹤唳,即使美联储明确表示尚未考虑调整货币政策,有关缩减QE和加息的疑云正在投资者心中迅速扩大。周三收盘美股三大指数全线下挫,道指跌近2%,标普500跌超2%为2月来最差表现,科技股抛售加速,纳指跌近3%。

通胀预期持续高企

当地时间周三盘前美国劳工部发布的数据显示,4月美国居民消费者物价指数(CPI)同比增长4.2%,远高于市场预期的3.6%,创2008年9月以来新高,核心CPI同比增长3%,创1996年1月以来新高。

CPI破4!美联储二把手淡定回应宽松不变,市场为何不领情

分项指标中,能源价格较上年同期上涨25%,其中汽油价格上涨49.6%,燃油价格上涨37.3%。二手车价格飙升21%,环比增长10%,全球芯片短缺阻碍了汽车生产并推动了对二手车的需求。此外机票价格上涨10.2%,酒店和汽车旅馆客房价格上涨8.8%,各地经济重启及消费热潮推动了新一轮涨势。

基数效应是上月CPI数据异常偏高的重要原因,去年3-4月恰逢疫情初期,强制隔离措施令美国经济几乎陷入停滞,通胀数据被扭曲。因此,美联储内部普遍认为物价上升是暂时的,预计今年晚些时候通胀率将稳定其设定的2%目标附近。

不过供应链瓶颈或将使得通胀压力持续更长时间,这可以从今年以来部分大宗商品的表现上有所体现,美国房地产市场火热令木材价格累计上涨超100%,全球经济晴雨表——铜价年内涨幅也超过了36%。

CPI破4!美联储二把手淡定回应宽松不变,市场为何不领情

制造业正面临巨大压力,以纽约为例,当地制造业采购经理人指数PMI 4月刷新三年新高,但企业交货时间明显放缓,支付价格指数则创下2008年以来最高水平,产品销售端价格正在快速上升。不少消费品生产商此前公布了提价计划,如金佰利、宝洁、荷美尔、可口可乐等。

随着经济复苏提速和财政刺激措施逐步落地,消费者信心逐渐恢复,密歇根大学消费4月调查显示,未来一年通胀预期一度升至3.7%。PNC Financial Services 高级经济学家亚当斯(Bill Adams)指出,经济刺激支票、就业市场混乱和供应链问题都是是通胀的短期驱动因素, 接下来雇主提高薪资吸引员工、旺盛的消费需求推动经济复苏速度超过预期或者大宗商品价格持续走高都将成为通胀长期高企的催化剂。

美联储重申:就业优先

美联储副主席克拉里达(Richard Clarida)周三表示,相对于通胀而言,他更担心美国劳动力市场的健康状况 。他认为未来几个月美国通胀可能会进一步上升,然后在今年晚些时候有所放缓。他补充称,美联储的宽松货币政策可能在一段时间内保持不变。

克拉里达当天出席了全美商业经济协会的活动,他对最新通胀数据的强劲势头略感惊讶。“重启20万亿美元的经济体所需的时间,可能要比关闭经济所需的时间更长,供应可能也需要更长时间才能达到被抑制的需求水平。”他说。克拉里达重申,随着经济重新开放,物价上涨将是一次性的,并对通胀产生暂时影响。2022年和2023年的通胀率将恢复到或略高于我们2%的长期目标,这符合美联储的新政策框架。

第一财经记者注意到,根据美联储去年提出的平均通胀目标(AIT)框架, 美联储致力于在未来一段时间内实现通胀率适度高于2%的目标,使长期通胀预期保持在2%的水平。

自去年以来,美联储将隔夜利率维持在接近零的水平,并每月购买至少1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款债券,以使经济从疫情中平稳复苏。在4月利率决议中,联邦公开市场委员会FOMC重申宽松政策立场,直到在充分就业和2%平均通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”。

克拉里达表示,“经济离我们的目标还有很长一段路要走,要取得实质性的进一步进展可能还需要一段时间”,但没有暗示他希望就何时开始缩减资产购买规模展开正式讨论。当被问及是否是时候缩减QE时,他回答道,“还没有(not yet)”。

与克拉里达类似,近期多位美联储官员均强调了恢复劳动力市场的重要性,特别是在4月非农报告不及预期的背景下。新任美联储理事沃勒(Christopher Waller)上周表示,现在谈论撤回央行对经济活动的支持还为时过早,他强调,在新冠肺炎疫情影响下,过去一年仍有800多万个工作岗位有待恢复。沃勒预计今年美国经济增速有望达到6.5%,通胀率为2.5%。

回顾历史,美国上一次出现持续物价上涨是在40多年前。上世纪70年代,由于布雷顿森林体系终结和石油危机,美国通胀率持续走高,并在1980年达到13.5%的峰值。当时美国除了依赖进口石油,经济与全球的关联度并不高。大多数消费者购买的商品都是在美国制造的,美国工人的工资在工会的支持下不断上涨,石油危机和收入上升的共同作用造成了美国历史上最大规模的通胀潮。

这一次美国会重蹈覆辙吗?不少人有这样的担心,前美国财长萨默斯认为,拜登斥资4万亿美元重塑政府在美国民众生活中所扮演角色的计划选择了正确的目标,但却给正在从大流行病中快速复苏的美国带来了通货膨胀风险。“我担心进步派有做过头的趋势。”萨默斯在接受采访时说。“你需要有进步的想法,但也需要正确的计算,我担心该计划可能会使经济过热。”

资产管理机构BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格(Boris Schlossberg)在接受第一财经记者采访时表示,供应和需求的错位直接导致了物价上升的压力,但他倾向于支持美联储的观点,通胀超频可能是暂时的。一方面,美国有足够的生产能力,供应链的问题则取决于疫情防控的形势,随着各国和地区疫苗接种率将逐步上升,这应该不会成为长期的困扰因素。

施罗斯伯格认为,真正的通胀螺旋往往发生在工资涨幅开始跟上物价水平的时候,现在与上世纪70年代通胀高峰期的区别就在于劳动力定价权,短期看薪资问题不会成为通胀的主要驱动力。他预计,随着二季度和下半年美国经济持续复苏,就业市场供需将会逐步趋于平衡。

值得一提的是,包括约翰·霍普金斯大学教授鲍尔( Laurence Ball)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)在内多位顶尖经济学家在上周联名发表论文,认为美国通胀上升是“温和和暂时的”,并指出拜登的政府支出似乎并不构成威胁。“总的来说,政府用于大流行救助的临时性支出不会导致通胀螺旋上升。基础设施、就业和医疗保健方面的额外支出值得关注。但由于这些可能会长期分摊(并被税收措施部分抵消),不足以产生对经济过热的担忧。

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