英媒:面对通货膨胀 美联储究竟有多大的意志力?

2021年05月12日 14767点热度 0人点赞 3,962条评论

英媒:面对通货膨胀 美联储究竟有多大的意志力?

参考消息网5月11日报道 英国《金融时报》网站5月8日发表题为《面对通货膨胀,美联储有多大的意志力?》的文章,作者是美国外交学会高级研究员塞巴斯蒂安·马拉比。全文摘编如下:

在美国所有制度中,很少有像美联储这样在逆境中蓬勃发展的。美联储安然挺过了金融危机、美国前总统特朗普的摧残和新冠疫情。通过它的努力,通胀大致稳定,美联储独立性不受损害。

人们将在这个背景下评估美联储的下一个挑战——通胀反弹的危险。

25年来,去除易波动的食品和能源的核心通胀率,大多数时候无法达到美联储2%的目标;但现在,物价可能以高于预期的速度上涨。如果美联储任凭这种情况失控——通胀率上升到3%至4%的区间——后果可能对全球造成破坏性影响。

美联储将不得不提高借贷成本。金融市场将会暴跌。举债经营的企业将会破产。美元走强将重创那些债务以美元计价、收入以其他货币计价的新兴经济体。

有关通胀的讨论始于6个月前,现在则越来越激烈。

特朗普去年12月公布的9000亿美元经济刺激计划,被放大为美国总统拜登今年3月公布的1.9万亿美元一揽子计划,而且有传言称即将出台两项大胆的支出法案。与此同时,在私营部门,本已处于高位的个人储蓄率继续攀升——个人储蓄率高是危险的信号,因为可能预示着未来将有巨大支出。

在这场大流行病暴发前,个人储蓄率一直徘徊在7%多一点。去年12月为13.5%。今年一季度的平均值为20.5%。数以百万计的美国人刚刚接种完疫苗并且持有大量可支配资金,随时可能把美国经济点燃。

与此同时,其他领域的变化却破坏了防火措施。新冠疫情击垮了一些企业,损害了经济满足激增需求的能力。贸易紧张削弱了全球化抑制价格的能力。

通胀猛涨并非不可避免,但通胀猛涨的风险非常大。很多问题取决于价格真的飙升时,美联储是否准备坚决应对。这就把我们带到了通胀讨论的第二部分。

美联储的批评者提出了三个理由,说明该机构可能缺乏应对问题的意志。

首先,美联储模糊了有关通胀目标的承诺。为了平衡过去通胀过低的情况,它现在希望突破2%关口,但没有说明维持多长时间。由于货币政策发挥作用具有滞后性,这种观望态度可能意味着加息来得太晚,来不及在价格上涨形成势头之前对其加以抑制。

如果通胀率超过3%,你可能预计美联储会迅速作出反应。毕竟,过去20年通胀一直较低,很少出现距离2%目标偏出1个百分点的情况。但批评者的第二个担忧是,美联储可能认为通胀飙升是暂时的——一旦工人转向新行业,公司也进行调整,这种暂时性的问题就会被纠正。如果这种判断是错误的,那么通胀将有机会自我强化。

这就导致了第三个,也是最基本的担忧。央行的决策者在不确定的情况下作出决定,而且这些决策不可避免地具有政治性。央行决策者的独立性并非象牙塔般与世隔绝,而是按照时间表到国会露面、与政府官员会晤,尽管他们有意愿认定提高利率是正当举措,虽然这会付出短期代价。一群专业的美联储观察家喜欢猜测央行官员缺乏作出这一判断的勇气。一些人甚至窃窃私语说,美联储主席、共和党人杰罗姆·鲍威尔为了确保民主党总统允许他连任,宁愿维持货币的宽松状态。

    Kratos

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