美国油气管道被“黑”停摆，对能源市场意味着什么？
美国最大的燃油管道运营商Colonial Pipeline遭勒索软件攻击关闭管道之后，美国宣布进入紧急状态。那么，该管道的中断会提高天然气价格吗？5月10日，市场分析师Andrew Keshner撰文称，这完全要视地区而定，美国东南部恐面临最大的汽油涨幅。WTRG经济公司的能源经济学家James Williams称，如果Colonial Pipeline真能本周结束前成功恢复运营，市场只会出现少量短缺。如果到本周末还不能恢复输油管道的流量，情况将变得危急。
Colonial Pipeline输油管道关闭后，美国东南部各州恐面临最大的汽油价格涨幅
Colonial Pipeline输油管道关闭停摆的状况，可能会将已经上涨的油价进一步推高，可能会达到2014年底以来最高水平。
据美国汽车协会发言人Jeanette McGee称，上周末，美国全国平均汽油价格上涨了1美分至2.96美元。
商品分析提供商DTN的编辑和产品经理Brian Milne表示：“Colonial Pipeline关闭管道后，可能会在5月底阵亡将士纪念日前将美国零售网点销售的汽油均价推高至每加仑3美元以上。这意味着从5月3日起每加仑汽油价格将上涨0.11美元。我们现在已经看到价格上涨，市场对Colonial Pipeline关闭的反应几乎是即时的。”
但专家们说，汽油上涨带来的痛苦不会平均，美国东南部各州的司机最有可能支付更多费用，或面临暂时的汽油短缺。
GasBuddy的石油分析主管Patrick De Haan称，在最坏的情况下，受影响的东南部地区司机可能面临高达30美分的油价上涨，而其他地区的司机则要多付几美分而已。
De Haan还称，受影响的地区可能包括田纳西、卡罗来纳、乔治亚州的大部分地区，并延伸到阿拉巴马州的伯明翰，可能还有佛罗里达最北部地区。
Colonial Pipeline遇袭对能源市场意味着什么？
作为美国最大的燃油管道系统运营商，Colonial Pipeline已表示争取在周末前恢复输油。
Strategic Energy & Economic Research主席Michael Lynch认为，这条管道对美国石油市场来说是最重要的，但他认为其对能源价格的影响不会阻碍美国民众的夏季度假计划。黑客攻击影响的是信息系统，而不是机械控制系统，这表明该管道不应该长期关闭。
Lynch认为，如果恢复服务还需要两到三天以上的时间，美国东海岸的汽油价格就会上涨，特别是在阵亡将士纪念日前后。今年该假期为5月31日，标志着美国夏季驾驶季节正式开始。
Lynch同时补充称，零售汽油价格在未来几周内上涨10至20美分似乎是很有可能的。
目前为止，汽油价格的日常变化不大。根据AAA的数据，周一全国普通汽油均价为每加仑2.967美元，与周日的2.962美元几乎没有变化。
不过，商品分析提供商DTN的编辑和产品经理Brian Milne称，如果本周中期该管道依然关闭，汽油价格将上涨得更快。如果公众恐慌并开始给油箱加油，则价格还会加速上涨。
WTRG经济公司的能源经济学家James Williams称，如果Colonial Pipeline真能本周结束前成功恢复运营，市场只会出现少量短缺。
此外，也有传言称，如果管道中断的时间延长，有可能使用船只从墨西哥湾沿岸向美国东北部运送精炼石油。
市场什么时候才应该真正担心呢？Williams认为，如果到本周末还不能恢复输油管道的流量，情况将变得“危急”。
(美国无铅汽油主力合约日线图)
北京时间5月11日10:19，美国无铅汽油主力合约报2.1196美元/加仑。
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