周一(5月10日),受大宗商品价格上涨和加拿大央行开始收紧货币政策的推动,美元/加元达到2017年9月中旬以来的最低水平。
分析人士表示,这两个因素有助于保护加元受到上周五逊于预期的就业报告的经济负面影响。
数据显示,加拿大经济在4月份失去了20.71万个工作岗位,远逊于分析师估计的增加17.5万个工作岗位,原因是人口众多的安大略省、魁北克、不列颠哥伦比亚省对疫情的限制。
“宽松货币政策、增长上升和供应瓶颈正推动投机资金逃离美元,进入大宗商品市场,”Cambridge Global Payments首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta表示。“2008-2009年的情景清晰可见。”加拿大央行上月表示,可能在2022年底开始升息,并削减购买债券的步伐。自那以来,美元/加元一直在下跌。自大约4月中旬以来,加元已上涨近5%。
加元的走高也是因铜价周一升至纪录高位,因投资者担心错失进一步涨势。不过,铜价在午后交易中出现下滑,因近期进场的看涨投资者对可能出现的回调感到紧张。伦敦金属交易所(London Metal Exchange)三个月期铜价格周一攀升至每吨10,747.50美元的历史高点,上周五突破了10年来的纪录。
Schamotta表示,“交易商正在抢夺加元,与不断飙升的贱金属价格同步竞价。”他表示:“1.2000,一个巨大而诱人的整数就近在眼前,似乎随时都有可能取得突破。”
从技术面看,美元/加元结算于支撑位1.2130下方,并正在测试下一个支撑位1.2100。如果这次测试成功,美元/加元将走向支撑位1.2065。如果成功测试1.2065的支撑位,将推动美元/加元走向下一个支撑位1.2040。如果美元/加元跌破这一水平,它将转向1.2000的支撑位。在上行方面,美元/加元需要回到1.2100以上,才能有机会在近期形成上行势头。下一个阻力位位于1.2130。升穿1.2130将推动美元/加元走向阻力位1.2170。如果美元兑加元(1.2104, 0.0004, 0.03%)突破这一水平,它将走向下一个阻力位1.2200。
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