央行100亿操作惯例的终局是什么? 5月份核心逻辑是通胀和资金面

2021年05月07日 12311点热度 0人点赞 2,146条评论

央行延续100亿元逆回购操作表明货币政策的防御心态,在5月份流动性缺口扩大的背景下,货币政策面对资金面波动大概率采取滞后操作,需警惕资金利率中枢上行或波动性增大风险可能对长端利率产生的压力。

无视到期增加,央行维持100亿操作。春节后货币政策操作波澜不惊,100亿元逆回购成操作惯例。这一惯例形成的原因,事后看是流动性缺口小,本质上是央行静默操作下无意释放信号。5月6日央行在当日有500亿元逆回购到期的情况下仍然只开展100亿元逆回购操作。

从历史中寻找货币“静默”操作的线索。近两年央行实际上并不缺少“静默”的时期,如果我们将央行近期的100亿元逆回购操作惯例对比央行暂停OMO操作,可做对比的是2018年10月26日至2018年12月14日连续36个工作日暂停逆回购,央行货币政策取向不变,但央行通过加大资金利率的波动性来起到抑制债市杠杆的效果;以及2020年4月1日至5月25日连续36个工作日暂停逆回购操作,央行开始逐步收紧流动性,资金利率随之明显抬升。

央行操作惯例的终局推演:(1)央行停止100亿元逆回购操作转为暂停公开市场操作;(2)央行在地方债供给压力、所得税汇算清缴影响下提高逆回购操作的规模,以稳定资金面;(3)央行继续维持100亿元的逆回购操作惯例,不对5月份流动性缺口扩大做出对冲操作。三种可能最终都导向资金面边际收紧的结局。

央行对资金波动的容忍度已经提高。央行在无视月初资金累积到期而延续100亿元逆回购操作惯例,我们更倾向于认为货币政策持防御心态,需关注5月份地方债发行放量等因素导致资金面波动时货币政策选择滞后反应。实际上,DR007偏离程度反映了央行对资金面波动性的容忍度已经提高。

债市策略:5月份债市的核心逻辑是通胀和资金面。就资金面而言,5月流动性缺口扩大较为确定,而央行延续100亿元逆回购操作惯例反映出货币政策当前对流动性并没有明显的宽松呵护之心,防御性操作心态背后需要关注5月份资金面波动。我们认为当前需要警惕资金利率中枢上行或波动性增大风险可能对长端利率产生的压力。

正文

无视到期增加,央行维持100亿操作

五一假期海外通胀继续升温,耶伦提及适度提高利率以防经济过热引发金融市场震荡。在主要发达国家疫苗接种率逐步提升、经济逐步复苏回暖的过程中,通胀升温颇受关注。五一假期大宗商品价格维持上涨,原油、有色金属等涨幅较大,CRB金属指数涨幅0.82%,通胀在海外市场继续升温。5月4日晚美国财长耶伦在《大西洋(3.1000.041.31%)月刊》的采访视频中表示,可能需要提高利率以确保美国经济不会过热。金融市场对该言论反应强烈,美股三大股指跌幅一度超1%,纳指最大跌幅超3%。5月6日英国央行5月份英格兰银行货币政策委员会会议提出将单周购债速度从当前的44亿英镑放缓至34亿英镑,预计购债计划将于2021年年底附近结束。后续通胀和宽松货币如何退出的或将成为海外市场的主线。

央行100亿操作惯例的终局是什么? 5月份核心逻辑是通胀和资金面
反观国内,春节后货币政策操作波澜不惊,100亿元逆回购成操作惯例。自春节后央行公开市场操作始终维持较小规模,尤其是从3月1日起至今,央行连续46个工作日开展100亿元7天逆回购,期间小幅缩量续作MLF,资金利率维持平稳运行。但实际上央行操作并没有严格对冲到期量,5月6日央行在当日有500亿元逆回购到期的情况下仍然只开展100亿元逆回购操作。因而相对于央行完全对冲操作,每天开展100亿元7天逆回购操作似乎成为了3月份以来的操作惯例。
央行100亿操作惯例的终局是什么? 5月份核心逻辑是通胀和资金面

这一惯例形成的原因,事后看是流动性缺口小,本质上是央行静默操作下无意释放信号。3月份以来央行公开市场100亿元的“制度化”操作惯例的结果是资金面维持平稳运行,事后来看资金面的超预期平稳,无非是财政支出力度较大、地方债发行节奏较慢导致的流动性缺口较小,抑或是信用派生较小导致的资金淤积。3月份后公开市场操作与春节前操作模式不同、资金面波动情况也前后相差极大,究其本质或许是央行在“两会”窗口或3月~4月信用债到期高峰时期无意释放明确信号,在“不急转弯”的政策要求下稳健操作。

从历史中寻找货币“静默”操作的线索

政治局会议和央行操作仍然没有释放出明确的信号,我们从历史中寻找货币“静默”后的线索。政治局会议对货币政策的表态延续“流动性合理充裕”的表述。而央行在五一假期后的第一个工作日继续维持100亿元的惯例操作,“静默”的货币政策缺乏新的信号,而5月份面临的所得税汇算清缴、地方债发行等造成的流动性缺口,仍然需要央行的态度和对冲。而近两年央行实际上并不缺少“静默”的时期,如果我们将央行近期的100亿元逆回购操作惯例对比央行暂停OMO操作,可以参照的历史就更多了。

2018年以来共有三次央行保持同一操作惯例超过30个工作日。2021年3月1日至今的46个工作日,央行延续100亿元逆回购操作,多数时间是对冲流动性到期、总体是流动性净回笼。可做对比的是2020年4月1日至5月25日连续36个工作日暂停逆回购操作、MLF缩量续作,2018年10月26日至2018年12月14日连续36个工作日暂停逆回购、MLF等额续作。如果对比以上三个时期DR007的走势不难发现,由于逆回购操作规模小/暂停操作,月末DR007走高的季节性规律较为明显。

018下半年降准后多次连续暂停逆回购

2018年下半年多次降准后连续暂停逆回购操作。自从2018年7月5日降准释放7000亿元流动性后,央行已经4次连续多日暂停逆回购操作。(1)7月20日至8月15日,连续19天暂停逆回购操作,期间新作5020亿元1年期MLF操作;(2)8月22日至9月11日,连续15天暂停逆回购操作,期间新作1490亿元1年期MLF和1000亿元3个月国库现金定存操作;(3)10月18日至9月26日,连续17天暂停逆回购操作,期间降准置换MLF到期后释放7500亿元流动性;(4)10月26日到12月14日,连续36天暂停逆回购操作,流动性持续回笼。

回顾2018年下半年以来的资金利率走势,R007和DR007出现了四次的上行行情,分别对应逆回购连续暂停的四个时期。(1)7月初降准后央行连续19天暂停逆回购操作导致流动性的边际收紧和资金利率的上行;(2)7月底、8月初资金利率与政策利率倒挂后,8月连续多日暂停逆回购操作后利率上行;(3)9月上旬连续暂停逆回购操作后季末资金面收紧逐步显现,利率大幅上行;(4)10月底和12月中旬货币市场利率上行时期央行均暂停逆回购操作,其中月末因素、缴税缴准等影响也不容忽视。而连续暂停操作逆回购也曾引发了市场对货币政策取向转变的担忧,但从2019年一季度央行继续降准、资金利率中枢下移的结果看,央行货币政策取向不变,但央行通过加大资金利率的波动性来起到抑制债市杠杆的效果。

2020年4月~5月央行暂停OMO操作

回顾2020年4月~5月,货币政策转向极为明显,但是站在当时时点,市场分歧较大。4月初对中小银行定向降准和降低超额存款准备金利率后,货币政策进入静默期,逆回购操作持续暂停,虽然资金利率维持平稳、政策表态仍然是“加大对冲力度”,但市场已经开始有政策转向的担忧。但是市场多数观点还是认为在国内疫情刚刚得到控制、实体经济仍然处于恢复初期,货币政策不会转向,甚至可能在海外疫情蔓延的背景下进一步宽松。

从事后来看,2020年5月份政府债券发行加速阶段央行“静默”体现了货币政策转向。2020年5月份起政府债券发行规模增大,但市场对月中再次降准预期没有兑现,MLF缩量未降息,央行货币政策仍然“静默”。此外,4月底、5月初资金面波动期间央行未开展流动性操作,根据我们跟踪的DR007偏离度指标一度来到0.2,远远高于2020年以来的最高水平,但央行始终没有开展公开市场操作,在一定程度说明央行对当前资金面的水平较为认可,对资金面波动的容忍度也有提高。以上操作都说明央行在面临资金面波动风险时仍然没有采取积极的对冲态度。回过头看,2020年4月份起央行开始逐步收紧流动性,通过暂停公开市场操作、压降结构性存款来实现,资金利率也随之明显抬升。

央行操作惯例的终局推演

央行惯例操作反映保守态度。2018年11月、2020年4月起的两次央行静默操作之后,资金利率最终在季节性因素导致的流动性缺口影响下而出现资金利率波动加大或中枢上移的情况。从逻辑上讲,央行暂停公开市场操作或维持低量的逆回购操作,本身隐含了不会继续宽松的含义。央行近期持续100亿元逆回购操作惯例而无视到期量的变化,更是反映出央行保持克制操作的态度。

那么当前央行100亿元逆回购操作惯例会如何终结呢?三种可能最终都导向资金面边际收紧的结局。可能性之一是央行停止100亿元逆回购操作转为暂停公开市场操作。这一操作目前来看概率较低。原因在于,当前100亿元投放本身多数时间是完全对冲的,100亿元的投放本身对银行体系的流动性影响甚微,因而央行大概率不会暂停逆回购操作。而如果真的暂停逆回购操作可能透露出货币政策转向的信号。

可能性之二是央行在地方债供给压力、所得税汇算清缴影响下提高逆回购操作的规模,以稳定资金面。但是需要注意的是,我们看到2018年11月、2020年4月,乃至2018年下半年的其他阶段,央行重启逆回购操作或提高逆回购操作规模的原因是资金面波动加剧或中枢抬升,但是央行的操作并不会阻止这一过程,至多是减缓这一过程。因而如果央行果真加大了逆回购操作规模,那么说明后续资金面可能真的会面临边际收紧。

可能性之三是央行继续维持100亿元的逆回购操作惯例,不对5月份流动性缺口扩大做出对冲操作。一方面,这说明了央行无意继续宽松,那么当前的问题会继续延续到6月份——6月份地方债发行规模预计仍然较大,那么届时央行是否会延续100亿元的逆回购操作呢?这一过程无法一直延续下去,因为随着信贷投放、政府债券发行等消耗超储的行为会使得流动性缺口扩大,进而导致资金面的变化。

因而站在当前时点,央行在无视月初资金累积到期而延续100亿元逆回购操作惯例,我们更倾向于认为货币政策当前对流动性并没有明显的宽松呵护之心,防御性操作心态背后需要关注5月份地方债发行放量等因素导致资金面波动时货币政策选择滞后反应。实际上,我们跟踪的DR007偏离程度反映的央行对资金面波动性的容忍度已经提高。

 债市策略

正如我们在《债市启明系列20210430—当前债市博弈的核心逻辑是什么?》中提出的,5月份债市的核心逻辑是通胀和资金面。就资金面而言,5月流动性缺口扩大较为确定,而央行无视5月初资金累积到期而延续100亿元逆回购操作惯例,结合历史上央行长期暂停OMO操作后资金面的变动,当前央行操作惯例反映出货币政策当前对流动性并没有明显的宽松呵护之心,防御性操作心态背后需要关注5月份资金面波动时货币政策选择滞后反应。我们认为当前需要警惕资金利率中枢上行或波动性增大风险可能对长端利率产生的压力。

市场回顾

利率债

资金面市场回顾

2021年5月6日,银存间质押式回购加权利率整体下行,隔夜、7天、14天、21天和1个月分别变动了-20.19bps、-22.74bps、-24.85bps、-37.86bps和-14.68bps至2.06%、2.12%、2.11%、2.07%和2.29%。国债到期收益率整体下行,1年、3年、5年、10年分别变动-3.25bps、-0.79bps、-1.64bps、-1.33bps至2.33%、2.76%、2.95%、3.15%。上证综指下跌0.16%至3441.28点,深证成指下跌1.58%至14210.6点,创业板指下跌2.48%至3014.81点。

央行公告称,为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕,2021年5月6日以利率招标方式开展了100亿元7天期逆回购操作。

流动性动态监测

我们对市场流动性情况进行跟踪,观测2017年开年来至今流动性的“投与收”。增量方面,我们根据逆回购、SLF、MLF等央行公开市场操作、国库现金定存等规模计算总投放量;减量方面,我们根据2020年12月对比2016年12月M0累计增加21321.37亿元,外汇占款累计下降8025.20亿元、财政存款累计增加21581.4亿元,粗略估计通过居民取现、外占下降和税收流失的流动性,并考虑公开市场操作到期情况,计算每日流动性减少总量。同时,我们对公开市场操作到期情况进行监控。

可转债

可转债市场回顾

5月6日转债市场,中证转债指数收于372.84点,日上涨0.38%,可转债指数收于1461.95点,日上涨0.36%,可转债预案指数收于1186.68点,日上涨0.05%;平均转债价格123.54元,平均平价为101.05元。358支上市交易可转债,除盛虹转债(124.0500.000.00%)停盘, 231支上涨,5支横盘,121支下跌。其中中钢转债(186.060-4.94-2.59%)(31.72%)、迪龙转债(155.76117.7512.87%)(21.48%)和蓝晓转债(268.18524.199.91%)(14.05%)领涨,美诺转债(122.0503.593.03%)(-8.19%)、天目转债(-7%)和花王转债(85.960-0.08-0.09%)(-5.32%)领跌。354支可转债正股,除东方盛虹(15.0100.000.00%)停盘,191支上涨,14支横盘,148支下跌。其中本钢板材(4.6800.224.93%)(10.12%)、中钢国际(11.380-0.12-1.04%)(10.05%)和雪迪龙(10.3100.535.42%)(10.01%)领涨,美诺华(39.3700.040.10%)(-10%)、天目湖(24.040-0.24-0.99%)(-9.97%)和众信旅游(5.3400.101.91%)(-9.5%)领跌。

可转债市场周观点

市场当前处于新旧主线切换之时,随着财报季的逐步落地,外部因素的扰动也逐渐缓和,市场短期可能进入一个略显平静的阶段。对于转债而言,考虑到估值水平、绝对价格与流动性制约,在平静期市场的布局显得更为重要。我们反复强调,今年以来自上而下择券决定收益的高低,当前的窗口期正是挑选标的埋伏的时候。

考虑到宏观流动性对于市场估值的压力,当前实际上处于依靠盈利增速对冲估值压力的时间段,在这一阶段我们更为关注估值合理(正股和转债估值均需要合理)前提下业绩的潜在弹性,因此在中小市值风格中挖掘预期差是当前值得重视的方向。

进入尾声的顺周期交易仍然可以提供一定的超额收益,近期部分大宗商品价格接连创下本轮行情的新高。在供给约束下,相关品种仍然可以参与,重点在有色、化工、农产品(5.8000.152.65%)、黑色系等几大方向中的部分品种。其余不具备持续逻辑的品种我们已经连续多周提示兑现。

新主线方向上,仍然坚守疫情退出交易逻辑,五一假期消费修复较好,有望形成短期提振,后续随着海外的疫情逐步缓和,这一逻辑仍旧有着非常明确的潜在利好刺激。

从业绩成长性的角度出发,我们过去数周周报反复从成本叠加需求的角度关注到高端制造业板块。当下全球疫情的结构性不均衡可能会进一步提升制造业的盈利弹性,海外部分发展中国家的疫情控制效果远弱于发达国家,会冲击这些经济体在全球产业链分工中的地位,而作为“全球工厂”的中国制造业可能会迎来更多的转移需求,主要逻辑方向从国产替代与技术升级两大角度去考察,重点关注汽车零部件、新能源、TMT、医药工业等板块。

高弹性组合建议重点关注东财转3(132.240-0.22-0.17%)紫金转债(170.5803.271.95%)韦尔转债(151.040-2.57-1.67%)精测转债(127.486-0.34-0.27%)奥佳转债(154.100-3.50-2.22%)火炬转债(243.560-7.90-3.14%)星宇转债(130.520-0.51-0.39%)华菱转2(162.7472.801.75%)(中钢转债)、福20转债(135.050-0.75-0.55%)恩捷转债(203.000-3.19-1.54%)

稳健弹性组合建议关注杭银转债(116.9600.810.70%)南航转债(127.100-0.37-0.29%)、中天(彤程)转债、双环转债(122.725-0.31-0.25%)、三诺(美诺)转债、旺能转债(114.9890.610.54%)骆驼转债(129.7202.441.92%)、利尔(洋丰)转债、永冠转债(115.490-0.35-0.30%)海亮转债(113.9582.362.11%)

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    文章评论

  • PedroBax

    Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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    Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

    Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

    He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月6日
  • Ernesther

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月6日
  • TommyNeike

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月6日
  • Joshuahek

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月6日
  • WilliamDip

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月6日
  • Josephwopsy

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月6日
  • Victorlok

    Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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    A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

    These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

    “Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
    Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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    “While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

    Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

    “South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
    “This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

    The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

    2025年1月6日
  • DanielCoody

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月6日
  • DanielcaB

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月6日
  • PedroBax

    Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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    Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

    Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

    He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月6日
  • Richardrat

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月6日
  • Brianevels

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月6日
  • KeithBut

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月6日
  • Jaredses

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月6日
  • CoreyScova

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月6日
  • Davidrah

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月6日
  • GeorgeTeern

    Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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    A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

    These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

    “Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
    Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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    “While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

    Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

    “South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
    “This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

    The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

    2025年1月6日
  • Floydlit

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月6日
  • GeorgeKen

    Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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    Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

    Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

    He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月6日
  • CharlesFus

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月6日
  • Edwarddum

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月6日
  • Forrestsow

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月6日
  • EdwardEvedo

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月6日
  • Kennethbub

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月6日
  • Jeromesup

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月6日
  • WesleyTrita

    Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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    A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

    These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

    “Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
    Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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    “While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

    Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

    “South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
    “This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

    The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

    2025年1月6日
  • Matthewjat

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月6日
  • Spencerornaw

    Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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    Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

    Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

    He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月6日
  • WilliamGob

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月6日
  • Kevingogma

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月6日
  • Randallgreft

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月6日
  • DanielWaith

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月6日
  • WilbertMurne

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
    CNN

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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    The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

    But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

    The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

    That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

    Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

    Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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    Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

    “Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

    Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

    As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

    The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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    2025年1月6日
  • DonaldEnhat

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
    CNN

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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    The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

    But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

    The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

    That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

    Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

    Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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    Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

    “Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

    Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

    As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

    The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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    “Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.

    2025年1月6日
  • WilbertMurne

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
    CNN

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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    The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

    But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

    The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

    That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

    Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

    Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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    Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

    “Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

    Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

    As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

    The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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    “Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.

    2025年1月6日
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    Welcome to Bungee Exchange
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    2025年1月10日
  • LarryVut

    Welcome to Cow Swap: Your Gateway to Easy Crypto Trading
    In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, Cow Swap has emerged as a reliable and efficient platform for traders. Whether you're a seasoned investor or a newcomer to the crypto space, understanding how Cow Swap operates can enhance your trading experience.

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    2025年1月10日
  • AndreMance

    Welcome to DeBank: Your Premier DeFi Portfolio Manager
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    2025年1月10日
  • Josephfub

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  • Robertjidge

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  • Vincentfus

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    Whether you’re new to DeFi or looking to deepen your understanding, DeFiLlama is your go-to resource for data that helps drive decisions. Dive into the world of decentralized finance with all the information you need at your fingertips.

    Visit today and explore the future of finance!

    2025年1月11日
  • DanielKed

    Welcome to Vertex Protocol: Revolutionizing DeFi Trading
    Discover the revolutionary Vertex Protocol, your gateway to the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) trading. As the crypto landscape rapidly evolves, Vertex Protocol stands at the forefront, providing users with unparalleled seamless trading experiences and enhanced liquidity access.
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    What Makes Vertex Protocol Stand Out?
    Vertex Protocol is more than just a trading platform. It is a designed to empower you with:

    Intuitive User Interface: Navigate the complex world of crypto with ease and efficiency.
    Advanced Security: Enjoy peace of mind with industry-leading security protocols and safeguarding of your assets.
    High Liquidity: Access deep liquidity pools to execute large trades with minimal slippage.
    Diverse Asset Options: Explore a wide array of cryptocurrencies and tokens.
    Unlock Potential with Vertex's Features
    Leverage the full potential of Vertex Protocol with these standout features:

    Decentralized: Trustless and Secure
    Trading on Vertex ensures transparency and autonomy, free from third-party control, making it a trustless and secure choice for crypto enthusiasts.

    Efficient Trading Engine
    Benefit from fast, efficient trade execution supported by state-of-the-art technology that maximizes your trading efficiency.

    Community Governance
    Be a part of a community-driven , allowing you to have a say in the protocol’s future developments.

    Getting Started with Vertex Protocol
    Embarking on your DeFi journey with Vertex is straightforward. To get started:

    Sign up and create your account.
    Securely connect your wallet.
    Begin trading and explore diverse assets and liquidity options.
    Whether you are a seasoned trader or new to the crypto scene, Vertex Protocol offers the tools and resources you need to succeed.

    Join the Vertex Community
    Participate in webinars, discussions, and forums to stay informed and connected. The vibrant awaits, offering support and insights to enhance your trading journey.

    In conclusion, Vertex Protocol is your ideal partner in navigating the dynamic world of decentralized finance. Start today and experience the future of trading.

    2025年1月11日
  • JoshuaOpive

    Phantom Wallet
    Phantom Wallet offers secure storage for your crypto assets with a user-friendly interface. Get started and protect your investments today.
    <a href=https://www-phant0m.com>phantom wallet extension download</a>
    Why Choose Phantom Wallet for Your Cryptocurrency?
    In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, securing your digital assets is paramount. With numerous wallets available, choosing the right one can be daunting. Here's why Phantom Wallet stands out:

    User-Friendly Interface
    Phantom Wallet is designed for both beginners and experienced traders. Its intuitive layout ensures easy navigation, making it simple to manage your digital assets efficiently.

    Comprehensive Security Features
    Your safety is a priority. Phantom Wallet employs state-of-the-art encryption and security protocols to protect your cryptocurrencies from unauthorized access.

    Multi-Platform Accessibility
    Access your wallet from multiple devices with ease. Phantom supports various operating systems, offering flexibility and convenience for all users.

    Real-time Updates
    Stay informed with instant notifications about your transactions and wallet activities. You can monitor your assets and market trends effortlessly.

    Setting Up Phantom Wallet
    Download the Phantom Wallet from the official website.
    Create a secure password and back up your recovery phrase.
    Start managing your cryptocurrencies seamlessly.
    Advantages of Phantom Wallet
    Fast Transactions: Experience lightning-fast transaction speeds, ensuring your trades are completed in seconds.
    Low Fees: Benefit from competitive transaction fees, maximizing your returns.
    Comprehensive Support: Access 24/7 customer support to assist you with any inquiries or issues.
    Embrace the future of digital finance with . Secure, user-friendly, and reliable—it’s the smart choice for anyone serious about managing their cryptocurrency securely and effectively.

    2025年1月11日
  • WilbertDum

    Understanding Convex Finance
    Convex Finance is an innovative platform designed to enhance yield farming in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. It allows users to maximize their rewards without the need for technical expertise.

    What is Convex Finance?
    Convex Finance is a DeFi platform that builds on top of , optimizing the way liquidity providers and stakers can earn rewards. By using Convex, users can increase the efficiency and profitability of their investments.
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    Key Features of Convex Finance
    Enhanced Rewards: Users can earn boosted rewards on their staked assets by utilizing the Convex platform.
    Decentralized and Secure: Built on top of the existing Curve protocol, ensuring a high level of trust and security.
    User-Friendly Interface: Designed to be easy for both new and experienced DeFi users to navigate.
    Why Choose Convex Finance?
    There are several compelling reasons to choose Convex Finance for your yield farming needs. Whether you're new to DeFi or an experienced investor, Convex offers unique benefits:

    Higher Yields: By pooling your resources, Convex helps maximize the potential returns on your investments.
    Gas Fee Efficiency: Transactions through Convex are optimized to reduce costs, making it a more efficient choice.
    Community-Driven: Convex evolves based on user feedback, ensuring that the platform continues to meet the needs of its community.
    Getting Started with Convex Finance
    Starting with Convex Finance is straightforward:

    Visit the .
    Connect your compatible crypto wallet.
    Select the pools you want to stake in and boost your earnings.
    For more detailed instructions, referring to the section will provide deeper insights and troubleshooting support.

    Conclusion
    Convex Finance revolutionizes the way users interact with DeFi, offering enhanced yields while maintaining a focus on security and simplicity. By leveraging the capabilities of Convex, investors can confidently optimize their yield farming strategies.

    Boost Your Earnings with Convex Finance Staking
    Are you looking to maximize your returns on cryptocurrency investments? Discover the potential of Convex Finance Staking today. This innovative platform offers you the opportunity to earn more by staking popular tokens like CRV, achieving enhanced yields while gaining additional benefits.

    What is Convex Finance?
    is a cutting-edge decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol that optimizes returns for Curve Finance users. It allows liquidity providers and CRV stakers to earn trading fees, boosted CRV, and take part in Convex liquidity mining.

    Why Choose Convex Staking?
    Here's why Convex Finance should be your go-to platform for staking:

    Boosted Yields: Earn higher returns by leveraging your CRV tokens and engaging in liquidity mining.
    No Withdrawal Fees: Enjoy the flexibility to withdraw your funds without incurring additional costs.
    Rewards and Bonuses: Benefit from various incentives, including platform rewards and additional bonuses for loyal stakers.
    How to Start Staking on Convex Finance
    Follow these simple steps to start maximizing your crypto profits with Convex Finance:

    Connect Your Wallet: Use a compatible wallet like MetaMask to link your account to the platform.
    Stake Your CRV: Deposit your CRV tokens into Convex to start earning boosted rewards.
    Claim Your Rewards: Monitor your earnings and claim your rewards at your convenience.
    Explore More Benefits
    Aside from staking, Convex Finance offers a unique opportunity to participate in liquidity pools and yield farming initiatives. These options provide you with multiple avenues to enhance your total returns on investments.

    Start Staking Today
    Visit the official website to learn more about which pools and strategies offer the best returns. Take action today and secure your financial future with Convex Finance's powerful staking solutions.

    Understanding Convex Finance: Boost Your DeFi Earnings
    As decentralized finance (DeFi) continues to grow, Convex Finance emerges as a powerful tool for users looking to optimize their Curve Finance (CRV) earnings. Whether you're a seasoned crypto enthusiast or a newcomer, understanding how Convex Finance works can significantly enhance your income from DeFi investments.

    What is Convex Finance?
    Convex Finance is a platform that allows liquidity providers (LPs) and CRV stakers to earn higher returns without locking CRV. It achieves this by leveraging specific tokenomics to maximize yield earnings for users, while simplifying the staking process.

    How Convex Finance Works
    Here's a breakdown of how Convex Finance operates:

    Increased Yield: Convex offers LPs additional rewards on top of the incentives already provided by Curve Finance. This maximizes your DeFi returns.
    Platform Flexibility: Unlike traditional staking, Convex Finance enables users to stake either LP tokens or CRVs without enduring long lock-up periods.
    Reward Distribution: Participants earn not just from Curve rewards but also receive a share of fees distributed by the platform, further increasing potential earnings.
    Benefits of Using Convex Finance
    There are several reasons to consider using Convex Finance:

    Efficient Yield Optimization: Convex Finance combines yields from multiple sources, providing a streamlined way for users to maximize their earnings.
    Lower Commitment: Users can earn rewards without the need for long lock-up periods, maintaining greater liquidity and flexibility.
    Community Support: With an active community and ongoing development, Convex Finance regularly updates its platform features to ensure high performance and security.
    Getting Started with Convex Finance
    To begin using Convex, you'll need to connect a compatible crypto wallet and deposit your Curve LP tokens. Once connected, you can decide on the best strategy for your investment needs, benefiting from the enhanced yields available on this innovative DeFi platform.

    Overall, Convex Finance represents an evolving landscape in decentralized finance, offering a compelling option for maximizing CRV earnings with minimal staking constraints. Explore this platform to leverage its full potential and take advantage of the thriving DeFi ecosystem.

    2025年1月11日
  • LarryNus

    Desyn Protocol
    The Desyn Protocol: An Overview
    The Desyn Protocol is a cutting-edge framework designed to enhance blockchain technology by offering a scalable and more secure ecosystem. As the demand for decentralized applications grows, the need for efficient protocols becomes crucial. Desyn addresses these needs with a unique approach, providing developers and organizations with the tools to build and manage decentralized systems with enhanced capabilities.
    <a href=https://web-desyn.org>desyn protocol</a>
    Core Features of Desyn Protocol
    Scalability: The protocol integrates advanced scalability solutions, allowing for increased transaction throughput and reduced latency.
    Security: By utilizing state-of-the-art cryptography, Desyn ensures that transactional integrity and data protection are maintained.
    Flexibility: Desyn's modular architecture enables seamless adaptability to various use cases in the blockchain sector.
    Applications and Benefits
    The Desyn Protocol is versatile, finding applications across different sectors that require blockchain solutions. In finance, it aids in creating smart contracts that bring efficiency and transparency to financial transactions. In supply chain management, Desyn can enhance traceability and accountability from production to distribution. The healthcare industry benefits from secure, immutable record keeping, ensuring both data integrity and patient privacy.

    With its emphasis on scalability and security, Desyn reduces resource consumption while optimizing performance, thus driving down operational costs. The flexibility of its architecture supports rapid deployment and integration with existing systems, providing a strategic advantage to businesses looking to transform digitally.

    Moreover, developers benefit from the open-source nature of the protocol, which encourages community involvement and continuous innovation. Desyn's approach promises to lower barriers to entry for startups and established companies alike, fostering a vibrant ecosystem of development.

    Conclusion
    In conclusion, the Desyn Protocol represents a significant advancement in blockchain technology by combining scalability, security, and flexibility. Its wide range of applications and benefits make it a preferred choice for various industries seeking to leverage blockchain's transformative power. As the landscape of decentralized technology evolves, Desyn is poised to play a pivotal role, offering solutions that are innovative, efficient, and secure. The protocol’s commitment to enhancing user experience and enabling strategic growth makes it a valuable asset in the digital transformation journey.

    2025年1月11日
  • MathewOpeks

    Introducing the Zircuit Token System
    The Zircuit token, a pivotal element in the blockchain landscape, plays a crucial role in enabling efficient transactions and offering enhanced security. Designed for seamless integration into various platforms, it aims to revolutionize the way digital currencies are perceived and utilized.
    <a href=https://web-zircuit.com>zircuit bridge</a>
    Key Advantages of the Zircuit Token
    Enhanced Security: Security is a core benefit of utilizing the Zircuit token. By employing advanced cryptographic techniques, it ensures that transactions are secure, safeguarding user data and funds from potential threats.
    Scalable Transactions: Zircuit token is engineered for scalability, allowing for a large number of transactions per second. This capability promises efficiency even as user numbers grow, ensuring smooth operations across digital platforms.
    Low Transaction Fees: One of the significant advantages of using the Zircuit token is the cost-effectiveness of its transactions. It boasts lower fees compared to traditional financial systems, making it an attractive option for users.
    Implementing Zircuit Tokens in Everyday Use
    The implementation of Zircuit tokens into daily transactions is designed to be straightforward. Users can manage their tokens seamlessly through dedicated wallets that offer user-friendly interfaces and robust security. Thanks to its decentralized nature, it enables trustless interactions, where intermediaries are reduced, thereby minimizing costs and enhancing speed.

    Furthermore, Zircuit tokens offer compatibility with various platforms, allowing users to transact with ease across a plethora of services. This flexibility is crucial for both individuals and businesses looking to integrate blockchain technology into their operations.

    In conclusion, the Zircuit token stands as a testament to the evolving nature of digital currencies, offering a secure, scalable, and cost-effective solution for modern financial transactions. As adoption continues to grow, the robustness of the Zircuit token system is likely to play a critical role in shaping the future of digital exchanges.

    2025年1月11日