英国央行预计,疫后的英国消费支出将以1988年以来最快速度增长——当时的首相还是玛格丽特·撒切尔。
这是因为央行上调了对英国家庭在年中开始最终解除防疫封锁后挥霍积蓄的预测。
英国央行副行长Ben Broadbent周四在伦敦的新闻发布会上对记者说,估计英国消费者在疫情期间积攒了超过2,000亿英镑(2,780亿美元),高于该行在11月预测的1,250亿英镑。央行预计消费者将花掉其中的10%,比例是之前预测的两倍。
在防疫封锁导致英国陷入三个世纪以来最严重衰退之后,这些数据有助于解释英国央行对今年经济增长的乐观。这是回答决策者面前最大问题之一的最新尝试:一旦取消防疫限制,消费者会挥霍多少钱。
央行行长安德鲁·贝利预计,经济产出将在今年恢复到危机前的峰值,比决策者2月份预计的要早。他说,富人和老年人积累了最多的积蓄。
今年3月,该行首席经济学家Andy Haldane表示,即使消费者只把疫情期间额外增加的储蓄拿出一点来作为支出,英国经济仍可能会出现令人振奋的复苏。Haldane是周四唯一一位投票支持削减债券购买目标的货币政策委员会成员。
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