美元兑日元(109.63, 0.3100, 0.28%)走势分析：日元跌势恐难遏制
今年以来，
美元兑日元
的走势受到美国利率上涨的推动，这一优势将在本周继续支撑
美元兑日元
。另外，日本疫情严峻令东京奥运会形势雪上加霜。
美国本周将有多项数据出炉，料将显示经济力道强劲，特别是美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业指数和4月非农就业报告。市场预期美国4月新增非农就业岗位97.8万个，得益于消费者花费刺激支票以及经济进一步开放。这一数据可能激发对美联储缩减资产购买的猜测。不过联储主席鲍威尔已经发出会保持政策耐心的信号。
NAB主管Tapas Strickland说：“非农就业报告应会再次显示接近100万的增幅，不过就业岗位总数仍比疫情前少750万个。美联储主席鲍威尔最近指出，这种每月大约增长100万就业岗位的速度还要再持续几个月，才能实现缩减QE所需的实质进展。”
鲍威尔将于周一稍晚发表讲话，之后本周还有多位美联储官员发表讲话。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰上周五呼吁尽早开始讨论缩减购债，认为通胀大涨并非暂时性。
数据的强劲将继续支撑市场对通胀抬升的预期，美债收益率则有继续走强之势。
疫情方面，据日本广播协会电视台3日统计，2日日本新增新冠确诊病例5900例，累计确诊604885例；新增死亡61例，累计死亡10387例。目前日本共有重症病例1050例，为疫情暴发以来新高。
近来，随着变异新冠病毒在多地扩散，日本防疫形势不容乐观。对于原定5月11日到期的第三次紧急状态，日本媒体称政府将在从5月1日起的5天连休黄金周结束后决定是否延长。
4月30日，日本首相菅义伟呼吁民众黄金周期间尽量不要外出、旅游和探亲。5月2日，负责新冠疫情对策的日本经济再生担当大臣西村康稔再次呼吁民众在黄金周剩余时间内待在家中，尽量避免出行。
技术面来看，MACD金叉，上周五K线涨破布林带中轨，后市走势大概率继续看涨，不过，KDJ显示一定的超买信号，短线有一定的小幅回调的可能。
上行方面，初步阻力关注61.8%回撤位109.63，进一步关注76.4%回撤位110.14，布林带上轨的压力在110.27。
下方50%回撤位支撑在109.22，布林带中轨支撑在108.9，再往下关注23.6%回撤位108.30。
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