地时间4月28日，美联储公布最新利率决议，将基准利率维持在0%-0.25%区间不变，并保持每月1200亿美元的资产购买速度不变。在随后举行的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔称，通胀的暂时上升不符合加息的标准，同时表示股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫。
值得注意的是，在美联储公布利率决议后，美股三大指数集体拉升，但在鲍威尔谈及美国股市泡沫时，三大指数集体跳水，收盘时齐跌。
美联储继续放“鸽”
当地时间4月28日，美联储继续放“鸽”。
据最新利率决议，美联储将基准利率维持在0%-0.25%区间不变，将超额准备金率（IOER）维持在0.1%不变，将贴现利率维持在0.25%不变，并保持每月1200亿美元的资产购买速度不变。
鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上强调，通胀临时性上扬不意味着美联储将加息，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候。在实现目标之前，接近零的利率政策是适宜的。时机适宜时将放缓对抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的购买速度，但不是现在。
美联储嘹亮的“鸽”声降低了市场对其加息的押注。
据CME“美联储观察”，截至北京时间4月29日6：00，美联储6月维持利率在0%-0.25%区间的概率为92.0%，加息25个基点的概率为8.0%；而在一日前，上述两个概率分别为88.9%、10.8%。
在谈及市场时，鲍威尔表示，股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫，金融稳定性整体上良莠不齐，但仍然是可控的。
值得注意的是，在美联储公布利率决议后，美股三大指数集体拉升，标普500指数盘中站上4200点，创盘中历史新高。但在鲍威尔谈及股市泡沫时，三大指数集体跳水，收盘时齐跌。据Wind数据，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数收盘分别跌0.48%、0.28%、0.08%。
下半年或释放政策转向信号
分析人士称，美联储正站在走向收紧还是继续宽松的十字路口：种种迹象表明美国经济复苏正在进入快车道，美联储可能要考虑政策调整，然而美联储此前发布的点阵图表明，决策者计划在未来三年保持相同的货币宽松政策。美联储货币政策转向信号何时出现？
开源证券首席经济学家赵伟分析称，相比通胀，美联储更关注就业。以史为鉴，美联储开启加息周期的触发因素，都是美国就业大幅改善。对于目前美国就业情况，赵伟认为疫情和财政“发钱”拖慢了修复进度。从最新公布的非农就业报告来看，2020年5月以来，美国非农就业人数累计增加1417万人，占前期受疫情冲击而萎缩的就业规模（2153万）的62%左右。
赵伟判断，综合美国就业的修复进程及2013年的政策退出经验来看，美联储可能在下半年释放退出QE的信号，并在2022年下半年前后正式退出QE。
中金公司对于美联储政策转向时间点的判断则更为具体。中金公司表示，美联储可能要到7月再讨论削减宽松，并于12月开启削减宽松进程。任何提前讨论削减QE的暗示都或是超预期的。
美国银行预计，美联储将在2022年初开始缩减购债规模，并提前6个月发出信号即今年下半年，并在2023年下半年开始加息。
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