拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

2021年04月29日 9461点热度 0人点赞 1,789条评论

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

这个帖子大概意思是说,最近美国钢材价格上涨了145%,木头上涨了126%

油价上涨了80%,大豆上涨了71%,玉米上涨了69%。

所有东西都在肉眼可见的大涨价,然而小时工资只上涨了5%

可按照官方的报道,通胀只上涨了1%,美联储的工作也太出色了吧。

吐槽完以后,这哥们发现,自己被美联储官方推特拉黑了,啥也看不见了。

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

熟悉美林时钟的小伙伴都知道,萧条之前的经济阶段就是过热。

从美国目前的物价涨幅看,现在就是过热阶段的开始。现在我们可能也已经正式步入,拜登萧条之前的拜登过热。

01
货币刺激加剧贫富分化

大家知道自打零八年金融危机以来,以美联储为首的全球主要央行,不停的放水刺激经济。

这个放水刺激经济的方式,基本都是货币刺激,而不是财政刺激。

货币刺激和财政刺激最大的不同点在于,货币刺激是通过银行信贷的方式,把钱放出去。

通常情况下,银行贷款是要看资质的。所以在货币刺激大放水的背景下,有钱有资产的人,更容易拿到钱。

这道理想想也明白,你是个一穷二白的人去银行贷款容易呢?还是你是个手里有房产的人,去银行贷款容易。

所以在这种背景下,越是有钱有资产的人,越容易拿到这些货币刺激放出来的钱。

他们拿到这些钱以后,并不会放在手里等购买力贬值,而是会拿这些钱去买入各种资产。

在全球央行不断货币刺激的背景下,这些有钱有资产的富人们,似乎形成了一个闭环。

因为有钱有资产,所以他们能从银行拿到更多更便宜的钱。拿到更多便宜的钱,就可以买入更多资产。

手里的资产在货币大放水的背景下升值,这些有钱有资产的人变得更有钱。

之后他们又能从银行借更多的钱,买入更多的资产,使得贫富差距进一步拉大。

和货币刺激是完全不同的,是财政刺激。财政刺激是通过补贴的方式,直接给老百姓发钱。

这个钱不是通过银行这个管道放出去的,所以就不涉及到信用和抵押物这玩意,等于说人人都有。

多数老百姓拿到这笔钱不会去搞投资,而是会消费掉,最终这些钱会参与到流通中去。

如果用熟悉的费雪公式解释一下,财政刺激和货币刺激产生的不同效果,大家就应该非常清楚了。

我们知道费雪公式的组成,是MV=PT。

这里M是货币总量,V是货币流通速度,P是商品和服务价格,T是商品和服务总量。

之前单单货币刺激的时候,虽然货币总量M变大了许多,但是货币流通速度V是不断下降的。

因为大部分超发的货币,都被富人拿去投资了,并没参与到实际流通中去。

这等于是货币总量M虽然在不断增多,但大部分都沉淀在房产股票这些资产里面。

观察2008年以后的货币总量M,可以发觉这个总量,是不断在上升的。

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

但如果你跑去观察货币流通速度V,则会发现是不断下降的。

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

最终带来的结果是,公式左边的MV乘积,在M大涨的情况下,变化并不太大。

因为货币总量M上涨带来的效应,被货币流通速度V的下滑带来的效应抵消了。

02
财政刺激驱动消费

这次经济刺激和以往最大的不同是,除了货币刺激,还搞了财政刺激。

在这种背景下出现的现象是,货币总量M上升的同时,货币流通速度V也起来了。

原因还是前面说的,多数拿到财政补贴的老百姓,都是中低收入者。

他们在疫情期间失业,拿到财政补贴,自然就会去买东西消费。

所以大规模的财政刺激一旦实施,这些发给老百姓的钱,都会参与到流通领域中去,而不是拿去投资,这会促使货币流通速度V提升。

如果公式左边的MV出现了同步提升,那么意味着MV的乘积,会迅速变大。

疫情期间,因为供应链被阻断和生产停滞的原因,商品和服务产能T没办法快速提升。

那么在公式左边MV迅速提升的情况下,为了维持公式两边相等,能提升的只有商品和服务价格P了。

所以疫情之后大家最明显的感受就是,到处都在涨价,不管是商品还是服务都在涨价。

服务涨价最明显的应该是理发了吧,商品里涨价最明显的是大宗商品和农产品,

不过既然财政刺激这么有效,为啥之前老美一直只采用货币刺激,不采用财政刺激呢?

因为在美国搞财政刺激,需要两党达成一致,国会通过,总统签署法案,程序非常复杂。

这在共和党担忧美国债务水平过高的背景下,并没有那么容易通过。

搞货币刺激就简单多了,只需要美联储这个机构实施就可以了。

疫情之后情况又不一样了,很多没有储蓄的美国老百姓失业,这些人吃不上饭是要闹事的。

在这种背景下,不管是民主党还是共和党,都有动力快速通过财政刺激法案,给老百姓发钱。

这时候也没人纠结债务问题和程序问题了,两党很快达成一致,大规模的财政刺激来了。

03
美林时钟为啥失效了

前两天有小伙伴问了个很好的问题,说美林时钟这玩意还有效么?即使有效又适合中国么?

按照他的理解,美林时钟的规律,是根据美国过往几十年经验总结出来的,

但是美国是单纯的市场经济,咱们国内调控能力又非常强。是不是美林时钟这东西,在国内不太适用啊。

而且从他的观察来看:即使是欧美国家,在2008年金融危机以后,美林时钟似乎也失效了。

欧美主要国家从2008年金融危机之后,虽然一直在印钞放水,可是通胀也好多年没起来了,美林时钟似乎已经不转了。

其实美林时钟是不是依然有效的争议,从2008年以后,一直就挺厉害的。

很多人觉得,从2008年金融危机以后,全球主要国家一直在放水刺激经济。

可是时间过了这么久,还不是经济增长起不来,通胀也一直起不来。

这个阶段给人的感觉是:

美林时钟里面最关键的两个因素,经济增长衰退和通胀上升下降,似乎都失效了。

因为从全球的角度看,经济增长似乎停滞了,通胀也稳定在某个数值,没啥波动了。

为啥会出现这个现象呢?

其实原因非常简单,因为全社会的贫富差距过大,导致底层购买力不足,整个社会都失去了消费的动力。

历史数据一再表明,当社会贫富差距拉大到一定程度以后,就会出现私人消费不足。 

进而引发总需求增长停滞,出现生产相对过剩。这时候经济增长会彻底失去动力,最终走向萧条。

这也是为啥我们在《资本新时代的圈地运动》里面会说:

今年明年即使所有经济指标出现改善,出现经济繁荣的景象,后面世界性萧条依然会来。

因为在目前贫富分化到极致的状况下,从全球角度看,已经没啥东西能给底层注入购买力了。

只要分配机制不改变,最终复苏都是假的,只是短暂的昙花一现。

GDP增速就是再高,不改善贫富差距,底层没有足够的购买力,萧条依然会来。

全球主要国家,除了我们在不断扶贫,其他国家都没做这个事情,全球的贫富分化程度又怎么可能会改善。

金融危机以后,美联储为首的全球央行,不断通过货币放水刺激经济,又进一步拉大了全社会的贫富差距。

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

这个阶段经济增长停滞的同时,全球都出现的另外一个现象就是。资产价格越来越高,贫富差距越来越大。

因为全球央行们放出来的这些超发货币,不断流入富人手中,推高资产价格。

看图说话也知道,现在全球又走到了大萧条边缘。

就像我们在《通胀以后就是债务崩塌》里面说的,这是经济转萧条之前的最后一次繁荣。

后面美股泡沫如果被刺破,会引发老美的债务危机,进而带动全球经济步入萧条。

04
美林时钟重新开始转动

我们知道一战以后,美国因为拿走了世界大部分财富,成为全球消费发动机。

1929年因为老美社会整体贫富差距太大,引发全球消费不足,最终带来了大萧条

2008年以后美林时钟之所以会失效,其实还是因为同样的原因。

看图说话就知道,2008年金融危机的时候,老美社会贫富差距已经拉大到极致。

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

带来的结果就是,08年以后底层丧失购买力导致消费不足,美林时钟失去了动力。

现在财政刺激以后,钱直接通过现金支票的形式,发到了中低收入人群手里。

驱动消费的动力,短时间内又回来了。美林时钟的动力,似乎也回来了。

所以大家才看到,我们的世界短时间内,似乎又回到了08年之前那个状态。

不光是全球经济出现复苏,资产价格出现了全面上涨,而且通胀也逐步起来了。

虽然美联储一直在强调:通胀还没到来,经济还没有复苏。

但是如果你看实际数据,感受显然不是这样。

可以说不管是大宗商品粮食,还是各种生活必需品和服务的价格,都出现了大幅上涨。

现在很多美国原材料的价格涨幅,已经是过去40年的最高水平了。

比如钢铁价格创下1939年以来纪录,化工品价格创下1947年以来的纪录,塑料价格也已经创下1974年以来的纪录。

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

按照这个原材料涨价的态势,美林时钟已经从之前的经济复苏期,正式步入到经济过热初期。

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

涨幅这么剧烈的原因也很简单

财政刺激到来以后,疫情期间失业的普通老百姓,人人都拿到了钱可以用于消费。

之前因为剧烈贫富分化,消失已久的那些消费需求,又回来了。

消费需求会带动大宗商品的需求,也会驱动整个经济体系加速运转。

从下图也可以看出,大宗商品价格和政府转移再分配的财政刺激政策,是息息相关的。

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

所以这个阶段你会看到,美林时钟又有效了,经济也按照美林时钟的顺序,重新恢复了转动。

从疫情时候的短暂衰退,疫情后的出现复苏,到现在开始出现经济过热。

05
拜登过热

国际货币基金组织前副总裁朱民,最近在演讲里也提到了这个经济过热的问题。

他的原话是,2021年全球经济的最大不确定性,就是拜登过热。

拜登过热带来的通货膨胀,和美国基准利率的调整,是未来一两年全球金融市场最主要的变量。

朱民表达的意思用大白话讲就是:

拜登政府释放的大量美元流动性,会在全球各地推起资产价格泡沫,和经济过热。

后面如果美国因为通胀过高和经济过热,出现加息和其他收紧货币政策的动作。

我们很可能要面对的是,资产价格泡沫破裂带来的巨大冲击。

为啥这经济突然就过热了呢?原因也很简单,财政刺激以后需求太旺盛了。

整个社会的需求,大致上可以分为三类,消费+投资+净出口。

这意味着生产出来的产品,要么卖给国内消费者,要么卖给国内企业,要么卖给国外消费者。

如果生产出来的商品国内消费者不买,国内企业不买,外国消费者也不买,那就卖不出去。

如果大家的需求非常旺盛,那么就会出现商品价格上涨,经济过热的状况。

财政刺激对通胀和经济有多大影响,很大程度上是刺激政策的具体内容决定的。

分析拜登刺激可以发现,这次拜登政府搞得财政刺激主要是两类用途。

第一类是中低收入群体的转移支付,也就是直接通过财政刺激,给他们每人发1400美元的支票。

第二类是扩大政府的消费类支出,包括提供1600亿美元用于病毒和疫苗,提供1700亿美元帮助学校开放等。

可以看出拜登这1.9万亿美元刺激里面,主要把钱花在发现金支票,让中低收入人群消费。

通过直接发现金补贴疫情期间受损的个人和机构,支撑他们的消费需求。

所以在拜登政府大规模发钱财政刺激的情况下,等于是给中低收入人群注入消费资金,会带来消费需求会大幅提升。

另外一个政府方向的刺激,也是扩大消费支出,只不过扩大的是政府的消费支出。

要知道美国那边经济的主要推动力就是消费,投资和净出口对美国经济增长的贡献很小。

朱民的演讲也提到了这点,刺激美国经济增长的主要动力,就是消费部分。

从下图可以看出,橙色是投资,蓝色是消费,灰色是进出口对美国经济增长的贡献。

灰色的净出口,对美国经济贡献几乎没有,有些年份甚至是负值,原因也很简单,美国是贸易逆差国。

橙色的投资部分,对美国经济增长的贡献也不算大。三驾马车里最大的,就是蓝色的消费部分。

如果按照国际货币基金组织的预测,美国2021年经济增长的速度会达到6%,要知道2020年美国经济增长只有-3%。

从-3%到+6%的经济增长,主要就是靠消费带动,可见消费带来的需求提升会有多大。

06
通胀来了

然而财政刺激带来的需求提升,在短期内会对通胀出现显著推动。

这就是我们现在看到一切涨价的根源。

因为这些中低收入人群边际消费意愿强烈,拿到支票就会花掉。所以政府发给个人的现金补助,可以显著扩张消费需求。

可以看出,疫情之后美国零售销售数据的增速,在不断增加。

 

拜登衰退之前,我们会经历的是拜登过热!

政府消费型支出扩大,同样会带来需求大幅扩张。因为美国政府直接扮演了购买者的角色,等于市场上多了新的购买者。

居民和政府消费的增加带来的增量需求,最终会对衰退期的经济增长,产生乘数效应。

消费需求增多了,市场上对劳动力、原材料、资本和土地这些生产要素的需求,自然也就增多了。

之前的经济衰退中,这些生产要素往往会被闲置。这些闲置要素开始使用,会增加大家的收入。

大家收入增多的以后,又会带动消费回升,进一步增加闲置要素的使用。

之后重复前面的循环,带来总需求的扩张。

总需求扩张,不仅会推升终端消费品价格。还会带来大宗商品价格,和劳动者收入的上涨。

原因也很简单,不管是大宗商品还是劳动力的本质上都是一种商品,价格是供需决定的。

消费旺盛会带来大宗商品需求旺盛,和劳动力需求的不断提升。

所以我们才看到,美国那边原材料价格上涨的同时,中小企业雇工需求和劳动者收入都出现了上涨。

观察美国的非农就业数据,现在不少行业就业数据甚至已经超过了疫情之前。

消费需求带来的价格上涨,还会带来通胀预期的提升,进一步推动价格的上涨。这就是大家常说的,通胀预期会进一步加剧通胀。

通胀预期会抬升通胀的原因也很简单,多数人倾向于通过最近的价格涨跌,来推测后面的价格波动。

当企业预期未来价格更高的时候,不但对客户的报价会不断提升。还会囤积商品,减少市面上的供应。

简单说就是大家都觉得未来价格要涨,卖你东西时候就给你报个高价,或者索性把货囤在仓库不卖了,等后面卖个高价。

在大家都预期价格上涨去囤货的背景下,市面上的商品供应,自然就会出现不足。

朱民这个演讲,也提到了通胀预期的问题,下面这张图显示的很清楚。

    Kratos

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    There are several compelling reasons to choose Convex Finance for your yield farming needs. Whether you're new to DeFi or an experienced investor, Convex offers unique benefits:

    Higher Yields: By pooling your resources, Convex helps maximize the potential returns on your investments.
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    Community-Driven: Convex evolves based on user feedback, ensuring that the platform continues to meet the needs of its community.
    Getting Started with Convex Finance
    Starting with Convex Finance is straightforward:

    Visit the .
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    For more detailed instructions, referring to the section will provide deeper insights and troubleshooting support.

    Conclusion
    Convex Finance revolutionizes the way users interact with DeFi, offering enhanced yields while maintaining a focus on security and simplicity. By leveraging the capabilities of Convex, investors can confidently optimize their yield farming strategies.

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    Are you looking to maximize your returns on cryptocurrency investments? Discover the potential of Convex Finance Staking today. This innovative platform offers you the opportunity to earn more by staking popular tokens like CRV, achieving enhanced yields while gaining additional benefits.

    What is Convex Finance?
    is a cutting-edge decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol that optimizes returns for Curve Finance users. It allows liquidity providers and CRV stakers to earn trading fees, boosted CRV, and take part in Convex liquidity mining.

    Why Choose Convex Staking?
    Here's why Convex Finance should be your go-to platform for staking:

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    As decentralized finance (DeFi) continues to grow, Convex Finance emerges as a powerful tool for users looking to optimize their Curve Finance (CRV) earnings. Whether you're a seasoned crypto enthusiast or a newcomer, understanding how Convex Finance works can significantly enhance your income from DeFi investments.

    What is Convex Finance?
    Convex Finance is a platform that allows liquidity providers (LPs) and CRV stakers to earn higher returns without locking CRV. It achieves this by leveraging specific tokenomics to maximize yield earnings for users, while simplifying the staking process.

    How Convex Finance Works
    Here's a breakdown of how Convex Finance operates:

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    Benefits of Using Convex Finance
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    Getting Started with Convex Finance
    To begin using Convex, you'll need to connect a compatible crypto wallet and deposit your Curve LP tokens. Once connected, you can decide on the best strategy for your investment needs, benefiting from the enhanced yields available on this innovative DeFi platform.

    Overall, Convex Finance represents an evolving landscape in decentralized finance, offering a compelling option for maximizing CRV earnings with minimal staking constraints. Explore this platform to leverage its full potential and take advantage of the thriving DeFi ecosystem.

    2025年1月14日
  • DanielKed

    Welcome to Vertex Protocol: Revolutionizing DeFi Trading
    Discover the revolutionary Vertex Protocol, your gateway to the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) trading. As the crypto landscape rapidly evolves, Vertex Protocol stands at the forefront, providing users with unparalleled seamless trading experiences and enhanced liquidity access.
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    Vertex Protocol is more than just a trading platform. It is a designed to empower you with:

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    Unlock Potential with Vertex's Features
    Leverage the full potential of Vertex Protocol with these standout features:

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    Embarking on your DeFi journey with Vertex is straightforward. To get started:

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    2025年1月14日
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  • GregoryPob

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    2025年1月15日
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    Price gouging laws are being ignored by landlords, says estate agent
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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

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    2025年1月16日
  • Victorpaura

    Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages during the first phase of an emerging ceasefire agreement being finalized by negotiators in Doha, two Israeli officials said, the first positive sign in months that a truce in the Israel-Hamas war may be in sight.
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    Hamas and its allies still hold 94 of the 251 hostages taken from Israel, including at least 34 of whom are dead, according to the Israeli government.
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    Israel believes that most of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal are alive, a senior Israeli official told reporters on Monday, but the bodies of dead captives will also likely be among those released. The first phase would take place over an initial 42-day ceasefire.

    The senior Israeli official said the parties appear to be on the verge of an agreement and that Israel is prepared to immediately implement the deal once it has been inked.

    US President Joe Biden expressed similar optimism in a speech Monday focused on foreign policy, saying the United States was “pressing hard to close this.”

    “The deal we have structured would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started. They have been through hell,” Biden said

    2025年1月16日
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    Understanding Rhino Technology
    Rhino technology represents the forefront of digital finance solutions, offering innovative tools for both consumers and businesses. Designed to streamline processes and enhance user experience, Rhino technology stands out as a pivotal development in the financial world.
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    2025年1月17日
  • RamiroFriek

    Understanding Hop Exchange
    Hop Exchange is a groundbreaking platform designed to simplify the process of transferring cryptocurrencies across multiple blockchains. This guide will explore its functionality, benefits, and how you can make the most of its features.
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    What is Hop Exchange?
    Hop Exchange is a decentralized protocol that facilitates efficient and cost-effective cross-chain cryptocurrency transfers. It aims to solve the challenges of interoperability between blockchain networks, enabling seamless asset movement without compromising security or incurring high fees.

    Features of Hop Exchange
    Cross-Chain Compatibility: Easily transfer tokens across different blockchain networks.
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    Welcome to SushiSwap: Your Gateway to Decentralized Finance
    SushiSwap is a leading decentralized finance (DeFi) platform that allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly from their digital wallets. Built on top of the Ethereum blockchain, SushiSwap is designed to offer a seamless, trustless, and secure trading experience.
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    2025年1月17日
  • Raymonddub

    Pendle Finance: Unlocking New Opportunities in DeFi
    As the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) continues to evolve, Pendle Finance is at the forefront, offering innovative solutions for yield and trading. This platform has quickly become a go-to resource for individuals looking to maximize their crypto investments.
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    What is Pendle Finance?
    Pendle Finance is a DeFi protocol designed to provide enhanced yield management opportunities by leveraging tokenization of future yield. It allows users to trade tokenized yield, offering flexibility and potential for optimized earnings.

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    Understanding Etherscan: Your Gateway to Ethereum
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    Lido Finance is a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform that provides simple and efficient solutions for crypto staking. It allows users to stake their digital assets without locking them up, thus maintaining liquidity and flexibility.
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    Lido Finance provides several benefits to its users:

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    Users can stake their assets via Lido's platform, which then delegates these assets across a set of trusted validators. In return, users receive staked tokens which represent their staked assets and accrue rewards over time.

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    Follow these steps to begin staking:

    Visit the Lido Finance website and connect your crypto wallet.
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    Welcome to Swell Network: Your Gateway to Decentralized Finance
    The world of cryptocurrency is rapidly evolving, with new platforms emerging to offer innovative financial solutions. Swell Network stands out as a pioneering force in decentralized finance (DeFi), providing users with unique opportunities to engage with the financial future.
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    What is Swell Network?
    Swell Network is a blockchain-powered platform that aims to disrupt traditional financial systems. It offers a wide range of DeFi services designed to enhance user autonomy and financial inclusivity. By leveraging blockchain technology, Swell Network ensures secure, transparent, and efficient financial transactions.

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    Decentralization: Operates on a decentralized framework, reducing reliance on traditional financial institutions.
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    Understanding Venus Protocol: Your Gateway to DeFi
    Venus Protocol has carved a niche in the fast-paced DeFi landscape by offering a one-stop solution for decentralized finance activities. Whether you're interested in lending, borrowing, or yield farming, Venus provides secure and scalable services on the blockchain.
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    Why Choose Venus Protocol?
    The Venus Protocol stands out because:

    It operates on the Binance Smart Chain, ensuring fast and cost-effective transactions.
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    Lending and Borrowing
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    Start your DeFi journey with Venus Protocol by following these steps:

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    Getting Started with Quickswap
    Quickswap is revolutionizing the way we trade cryptocurrencies by offering a decentralized platform for seamless crypto trading. As a user-friendly decentralized exchange (DEX), Quickswap allows users to swap tokens effortlessly without the need for intermediaries. Here's a detailed guide to getting started with Quickswap.
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    What is Quickswap?
    Quickswap is a layer-2 decentralized exchange built on the Polygon network, which is known for its high-speed and low-cost transactions. This platform provides an efficient and secure way to trade a wide range of cryptocurrencies without enduring hefty fees typical of Ethereum-based DEXes.

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    Set Up a Crypto Wallet: You'll need a compatible wallet like MetaMask or Trust Wallet. Ensure it's connected to the Polygon network.
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    To make the most out of your trading experience on Quickswap, consider these tips:

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    Welcome to Orbiter: Your Gateway to Financial Innovation
    In the ever-evolving landscape of finance, Orbiter stands out as a pioneering platform dedicated to providing cutting-edge solutions for modern investors. As we navigate the future of digital assets and decentralized finance, Orbiter remains at the forefront, committed to innovation and accessibility.
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    Orbiter offers unique advantages that set it apart in the financial world:

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    Orbiter’s platform is rich with features tailored to both new and experienced investors.

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    Maximize Your Crypto Trading with ParaSwap
    If you're looking to enhance your cryptocurrency trading experience, it's time to explore ParaSwap. This innovative platform serves as a decentralized exchange aggregator, giving you the best deals on the market.
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    ParaSwap is a cutting-edge platform that aggregates the best prices from various decentralized exchanges. It provides users with the most efficient path to execute their trades by considering factors like price impact and gas fees.

    How Does ParaSwap Work?
    ParaSwap functions by connecting directly to multiple liquidity sources. It then simplifies the process of trading across different platforms by bringing the best rates to users all in one place. This means that you don't have to hop between multiple exchanges—you can find everything you need through ParaSwap.

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    Welcome to Karak: Pioneering Blockchain Solutions
    The world of blockchain is evolving rapidly, and Karak is at the forefront of this revolution. Whether you are a developer, an investor, or merely a tech enthusiast, Karak offers a unique blend of innovative solutions designed to meet the diverse needs of the blockchain community.
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    is a sophisticated blockchain platform engineered to provide cutting-edge solutions that streamline processes and enhance efficiency. With a focus on decentralization, security, and speed, Karak integrates seamlessly with existing technologies to deliver a scalable blockchain experience.

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    One of the standout aspects of Karak is its comprehensive suite of features aimed at solving complex blockchain issues.

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    Why Choose Karak?
    Choosing Karak is choosing a future-proof solution. Its dedicated team of developers and blockchain experts continually work to enhance the platform, ensuring it meets the present and future demands of its users.

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    Jump into the world of digital transformation with Karak today. Visit to explore the platform and stay ahead in the dynamic blockchain landscape.

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    2025年1月17日
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    Renzo Protocol: Secure Blockchain Innovation
    Discover the Renzo Protocol: Revolutionizing Blockchain
    The Renzo Protocol represents a significant advancement in the blockchain technology landscape. It offers a secure and efficient platform for decentralized applications, setting a new standard in the industry.
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    The Renzo Protocol is designed to enhance the functionality and security of blockchain applications. Here are some of its key features:

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    Benefits for Developers and Businesses
    The Renzo Protocol offers numerous benefits for both developers and businesses looking to leverage blockchain technology:

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    To start utilizing the Renzo Protocol, follow these simple steps:

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    Renzo Protocol Restaking: A Comprehensive Guide
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  • Robertwaift

    Unveiling the Potential of Kelp DAO
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    Kelp DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) designed to democratize decision-making processes on the blockchain. It serves as a pivotal tool for communities seeking enhanced and a focus on eco-friendly initiatives.

    Why Choose Kelp DAO?
    Here are several compelling reasons to consider Kelp DAO for your blockchain ventures:

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    How Does Kelp DAO Work?
    Kelp DAO operates through a token-based voting system, where community members hold the power to vote on proposals and influence project decisions. The DAO's infrastructure ensures transparency and inclusivity, empowering stakeholders.

    Getting Involved with Kelp DAO
    Joining Kelp DAO is a straightforward process. Interested parties can engage by acquiring Kelp tokens, participating in community discussions, and voting on platform proposals. This involvement not only offers strategic governance participation but also contributes to the broader aim of sustainable development in the digital realm.

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    The ultimate vision for Kelp DAO is a fully decentralized platform where members collaboratively address global challenges while advancing decentralized financial mechanisms. As the community grows, so does its capacity to influence .

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    2025年1月17日
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    Welcome to Extra Finance
    At Extra Finance, we believe in empowering individuals and businesses with the tools they need to manage their finances more effectively. Whether you are looking to save smarter, invest wisely, or simply manage your expenses better, Extra Finance offers a range of solutions to help you achieve your goals.
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    Welcome to EtherFi: Revolutionizing Financial Transactions
    In the dynamic world of digital finance, EtherFi stands out as a revolutionary platform designed to reshape how you manage transactions and investments. Understanding this cutting-edge platform can provide you with the tools necessary for financial success in the digital age.
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    Maximizing Profits with 1inch Exchange
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    1inch Exchange is an invaluable tool for cryptocurrency traders looking to enhance their trading efficiency. By securing the best rates and offering robust security measures, 1inch stands out as a top choice for optimizing crypto swaps. Explore 1inch today and take your trading to the next level.

    2025年1月19日
  • PeterMed

    Understanding the Aave Protocol
    The Aave Protocol is revolutionizing the decentralized finance (DeFi) space with its unique approach to crypto lending and borrowing. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to the world of cryptocurrencies, Aave offers a robust platform for managing your digital assets.
    <a href=https://www-aave.com>aave staking</a>
    What is Aave?
    Aave, which means 'ghost' in Finnish, is a non-custodial liquidity protocol. It allows users to earn interest on deposits and borrow assets. Aave is known for its wide range of supported cryptocurrencies and features that enhance the security and flexibility of crypto transactions.

    Key Features of Aave Protocol
    Flash Loans: Aave introduced the concept of flash loans, which are borrowed and repaid within a single transaction. This feature is useful for arbitrage opportunities and collateral swaps.
    Security: Aave is audited by leading blockchain security firms, ensuring the safety of user funds.
    Rate Switching: Users can switch between stable and variable interest rates, offering flexibility based on market conditions.
    Wide Asset Support: Aave supports multiple cryptocurrencies including Ethereum (ETH), DAI, and more.
    How to Get Started with Aave
    Getting started with Aave is straightforward:

    Set Up a Wallet: Use a compatible crypto wallet like MetaMask.
    Connect to Aave: Visit the Aave website and connect your wallet.
    Deposit Crypto: Choose from supported cryptocurrencies to deposit into the Aave Protocol.
    Start Earning or Borrowing: Once your crypto is deposited, you can start earning interest or borrowing assets instantly.
    Advantages of Using Aave
    There are several reasons why Aave stands out in the world of DeFi:

    Non-Custodial: Users maintain control over their funds.
    Highly Secure: Regular audits and community governance enhance security.
    Innovative Products: Pioneering features like flash loans provide unparalleled opportunities.
    In conclusion, the Aave Protocol offers a revolutionary platform for anyone looking to explore the potential of decentralized finance. Whether you're earning interest or borrowing assets, Aave provides a secure and flexible experience.

    2025年1月19日
  • Barryjal

    Carrie Underwood slated to perform at Trump’s inauguration
    <a href=https://krkns.cc>kraken тор браузер</a>
    Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.

    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

    The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.

    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

    2025年1月20日
  • Michaeldag

    Алистаров – уголовник и террорист
    <a href=https://adecwat.com/segodnya/item/196684-prestupnik-andrey-alistarov-ot-kriminalnogo-proshlogo-k-kriminalnomu-nastoyaschemu>Andrey Alistarov launders money</a>
    От уголовника-индивидуала до слуги криминалитета
    Ранее судимый по «наркотической» статье блогер Андрей Алистаров позиционирует себя Робин Гудом, борющимся с теми, кто «обманул людей», – но в действительности он работает в интересах пирамидчиков, в том числе украинских, спонсирующих ВСУ, продвигает через свой канал «Железная ставка» онлайн-казино и черный криптообмен/фишинговый криптообман, отмывает наркодоходы за счет сделок с недвижимостью в Дубае.
    То есть работает в интересах российского преступного сообщества, пытающегося нажиться на предпринимателях, столкнувшихся с незаконными, часто заказными претензиями со стороны российских правоохранительных органов.
    Наркотики и отмывание доходов
    Уроженец Калуги Алистаров отсидел четыре года в лагере – за продажу наркотиков детям.

    Там он связался с уголовными авторитетами и, выйдя из тюрьмы, продолжил участвовать в криминальном бизнесе по распространению наркотиков и отмыванию наркодоходов от них с помощью риелторского бизнеса, который Алистаров создал совместно с партнерами из российского преступного сообщества в России и Эмиратах.
    Ставка на скам
    Канал Алистарова «Железная ставка» – «разоблачение» неправильных (по мнению криминалитета) финансовых проектов и продвижение «правильных»: пирамид и онлайн-казино, спонсирующих Алистарова.

    Он начинался как канал о «правильных» ставках в казино и не сменил название – потому что маркетинговая задача осталась прежней: расчищать поле для «хороших», по «экспертному» мнению Алистарова (то есть заплативших ему), мошенников.

    Обычно Алистаров начинает с попытки вымогательства – представляет жертве компромат и предлагает заплатить. Если жертва отказывается, в ход идут травля и насилие.
    Подстрекательство и нападение в Дубае
    1 января 2025 года состоялось жестокое нападение двух казахстанцев на предпринимателя, проживающего в Дубае, – его избили, отрезали ухо, обворовали.

    До этого Алистаров снял 12 роликов, где подсвечивал адрес этого предпринимателя, публиковал незаконно полученную информацию о его близких и его бизнесах в ОАЭ. Безо всякого стеснения использовал подглядывание, подслушивание, незаконное проникновение, вмешательство в частную жизнь – все то, что в Эмиратах, где строго соблюдается неприкосновенность имущества и жизни инвесторов, является тяжким уголовным преступлением.

    До этого Алистаров публично распространял информацию о месте жительства бизнес-партнера этого предпринимателя – то есть незаконное нарушение конфиденциальности, защищенности финансов и имущества, тайны частной жизни с помощью скрытых источников информации и информаторов в ОАЭ вошло у него в систему. Он терроризирует предпринимателей, в отношении которых нет никаких обвинительных решений судов – ни за рубежом, ни в России.

    Алистаров рассказывал, что заявил на предпринимателя в Интерпол и правоохранительные органы ОАЭ – якобы он помогает правоохранительным органам. Но это почему-то не привело к аресту предпринимателя – может быть, потому, что полиция ОАЭ не видит криминала в его деятельности?

    2025年1月20日
  • Andrewblisp

    Bonding on a stalled train
    <a href=https://emoney-hubs.com/blog/invest-info/piramida-life-is-good>смотреть порно жесток</a>
    In 1990, Derek Barclay was 21 and studying to become a construction engineer. He’d saved up money from an unglamorous summer job building a prison to buy an Interrail pass.

    “Then, I dumped my bag at my mum’s house and said, ‘I’m off to Europe.’ She was horrified,” Derek tells CNN Travel today.

    “The idea was to go from Casablanca to Istanbul. But I never went to either. Along the way I met Nina and I got distracted …”

    While Nina and Derek formally met for the first time on the stalled train in Belgrade, Derek had first spotted Nina on a busy station platform, some hours earlier, in Budapest.

    When he spotted her sitting on a bench, smiling and laughing with Loa, Derek was struck by Nina right away. For a moment, he imagined getting to know her, what she might be like. Where she might be from, where she might be going.

    But then Derek had ended up on a different train. He’d met and got chatting to Steve the Englishman and Paul the Irishman. The trio had shared a couple of beers, fallen asleep, and woken, with a start, in Belgrade, to a suddenly-empty carriage. That’s when they panicked.

    “We woke up, and just ran down the railway line — because we’re just about to miss this train to Athens — we jumped on the train as it was pulling away, and then it stopped,” Derek tells CNN Travel today. “Apparently that’s what they had to do to get the strike official.”

    When Derek, Steve and Paul opened the door to Nina’s carriage, Derek didn’t immediately take Nina in, focusing instead on the near-empty compartment.

    “Two of them in there, this carriage for eight, they’d spread stuff everywhere. It was obvious it was a ruse to try and get people not to go in. And we thought, ‘We’re not having any of that,’” says Derek, laughing. “So we squeezed in, and that was that.”

    It was only when he ended up sitting opposite Nina that Derek realized she was the woman he’d noticed on the Budapest train platform.

    Then they got chatting, and didn’t stop. They talked about a shared love of nature. About Derek being a member of Greenpeace. About Sweden and Scotland.

    2025年1月20日
  • Robertdus

    Blogger Alistarov is a criminal
    <a href=https://rucompromat.eu/articles/alistarov_laet_po_zakazu_psov_vojny>Андрей Алистров США</a>
    From criminal past to criminal present – in the service of corrupt law enforcement officers
    Andrey Alistarov, a YouTube blogger specializing in exposing financial organizations, is an odious figure with a criminal past. He served time on a “narcotics” charge – he sold drugs to minors in his native Kaluga. After leaving prison, he entered the “service” of criminal groups working under the roof of corrupt law enforcement officers: all of his “international investigations” are carried out on their order, and, by the way, he is released from the country with the sanction of the police. His main profile now is blackmail, extortion, slander and organizing contract prosecution under the guise of supposedly independent investigations.
    He leads the bandits to his victims: the last attack took place in Dubai on January 1: Alistarov led the bandits to the victim’s house and provided all the necessary information for the attack and blackmail, and to ensure his own alibi during the attack he conducted an unscheduled stream with subscribers of his channel.

    To the accompaniment of loud phrases about the fight against fraud and exposing financial schemes, Alistarov is busy processing orders from competitors of certain entrepreneurs who have become his victims – competitors of these entrepreneurs who have taken corrupt police officers as their share.

    At the same time, Alistarov uses visas to the EU countries and the UAE obtained with the help of organized criminal groups, illegally uses drones and listening equipment purchased with money from organized crime groups, organizes an invasion of privacy, and persecutes the families of his victims, including young children. It also steals and illegally uses content, violates all possible laws and regulations regarding the dissemination of information. He was also accused of treason.

    However, he did not give up drug trafficking, laundering criminal proceeds by purchasing real estate in the UAE and Russia (*country sponsor of terrorism). Alistarov also promotes outright scam for a percentage of criminal transactions and his own fraudulent business – selling real estate in Dubai with a horse, thieves’ commission, as well as cryptocurrency exchange using phishing schemes.

    2025年1月20日
  • GreggJoxia

    A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
    <a href=https://krkns.cc>кракен ссылка</a>

    Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?

    The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.

    Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.

    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
    The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.

    We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.

    In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.

    2025年1月20日
  • Earnestnoure

    Wow, amazing blog format! How long have you been running a blog for? you make blogging look easy. The full glance of your website is fantastic, let alone the content!

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    2025年1月21日
  • WillieTer

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    2025年1月21日
  • Matthewvaf

    Introducing Velodrome Finance: Maximize Your Crypto Yields
    In the rapidly evolving world of decentralized finance (DeFi), Velodrome Finance emerges as a robust platform for enthusiasts looking to enhance their crypto yield returns. This guide will walk you through the essentials of Velodrome Finance and how you can benefit from its features.
    <a href=https://web-velodirome.com>velodrome finance</a>
    Why Choose Velodrome Finance?
    Velodrome Finance stands out as a comprehensive DeFi protocol designed specifically for liquidity providers. Its innovative approach focuses on maximizing rewards while maintaining efficient and secure trading mechanisms. Here's why it's capturing the attention of the DeFi community:

    Efficient Token Swaps: Velodrome offers seamless and cost-effective token swapping capabilities.
    Liquidity Pools: Participants can provide liquidity to various pools, optimizing their earning potential.
    Yield Optimization: With advanced strategies, Velodrome helps users achieve superior returns on their investments.
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    Getting Started with Velodrome
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    Stake and Earn: Once you've funded a pool, begin staking and watch your earnings grow as you benefit from trading fees and incentives.
    Community and Support
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    2025年1月21日