周二(4月27日)日本央行公布利率决议,维持其主要政策工具不变,并对增长前景抱持更为乐观的看法,同时下调了今年的物价预期,这个世界第三大经济体正经历新的疫情紧急状态。
日本央行周二公布的政策声明维持其利率和资产购买设置,接受调查的所有44位经济学家都预期这样的结果。
监管新的紧急限制措施开始出台,一些经济学家警告说,这些措施可能引发双底衰退,但日本央行在季度前景报告中将本月起之财政年度的经济增长预期从3.9%提高至4%。同时,它将今年的物价预测大幅下调至0.1%,进一步表明它在未来一段时间内不会改变政策。
对2023财年的新预测还证实,在经过十多年带动通货膨胀的刺激措施后,黑田东彦仍将无法在其本届任期内实现物价稳定增长2%的目标。
该银行已经为长期维持政策不变铺平了道路,在上个月大幅调整其刺激框架,使其能够购买更少的资产。日本央行表示,这些调整使它有更大的灵活性,可以在需要时增加其措施,同时减少刺激措施的副作用。
接受调查的经济学家中,略超过一半的人将2016年以来最大规模的政策评估视为是增强了日本央行的宽松计划,约40%的经济学家则将此视为向政策正常化迈出的一步。大部分人预期,日本央行将维持政策不变到明年底。
这些调整使日本央行可以在政策会议之间更灵活地调整其资产购买,而无需更改其主要设置。由于对日本的前景持续不确定,疫苗接种计划缓慢,使人们,企业和经济可能经历更久的风险,因此这种灵活性可能派上用场。
黑田将在下午3:30举行的新闻发布会上提供有关经济前景的更多详细信息。
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