印度失守资本大举逃出!美元年内涨幅全部回吐 人民币却偷偷大涨

2021年04月27日 9930点热度 0人点赞 2,170条评论

印度失守资本大举逃出!美元年内涨幅全部回吐 人民币却偷偷大涨

印度疫情恶化失控,新兴市场资本外逃加剧!

数据显示,在截至4月21日的一周内,投资者从新兴市场股票基金中撤资13亿美元(约合人民币84亿),为三个多月来最大资金流出。而印度股票基金出现了一年多来最大的资金外流。

由于欧元(1.2069-0.0015-0.12%)区经济复苏略超预期,美元指数(90.96210.12400.14%)震荡下挫,由3月底高点93,迅速下跌低至90.68,年内涨幅回吐。分析师认为,尽管短期美元指数震荡下挫,但美元下探空间有限,大概率短期维持90以上,有较强支撑。

数据显示,人民币实际有效汇率指数,已经从去年6月份的低点攀升近8%,接近历史最高点。3月人民币名义有效汇率指数升0.63%至121.6,创五年新高。

  印度疫情失守,加剧新兴市场资本外逃

印度疫情已经失控,新冠病例数量快速攀升。根据印度政府公布,截至4月25日8时,过去24小时确诊病例将近35万,死亡2767例,连续四日单日确诊病例超过30万,一再刷新全球各国单日病例新高,三天新增确诊病例将近100万,并连续九日单日死亡病例创新高。

受此影响,印度卫生基础设施已接近崩溃,许多城市出现医院病床和氧气的短缺;十几个城市宣布实行宵禁。印度预测,国内这一波新冠疫情可能于5月中旬达到峰值,届时日增确诊病例将高达50万例。

但是,由于印度实行地方自治,政坛高度分裂。5月恰逢主要邦(喀拉拉邦、泰米尔纳德邦、阿萨姆邦、西孟加拉邦)实施地方选举,为迎合选民,预计短期内推行封锁措施的动力不足。但为了满足国内需求,印度近期已下令禁止疫苗的出口,此举或将影响其他发展中国家的疫苗接种进度。

印度疫情恶化失控,新兴市场国家整体防疫压力较大,加剧了新兴市场资本外逃,上周流出创三个月新高。数据显示,在截至4月21日的一周内,投资者从新兴市场股票基金中撤资13亿美元,为三个多月来最大资金流出。而印度股票基金出现了一年多来最大的资金外流。EPFR Global的数据显示,截至4月21日的一周,印度股票基金出现了一年多来最大的资金外流,而卢比在过去一个月下跌了3.5%。

同样在巴西上演,4月以来,巴西新冠肺炎日均新增死亡人数在3000人左右,几乎占了全球日均的三分之一,4月也成为巴西新冠疫情流行以来,死亡人数最多的一个月。

疫情蔓延、债台高筑,为了偿还内外债,巴西联邦政府从4月7日起连续三天举行拍卖会,拍卖全国22个机场、一条铁路和五个港口的30年特许经营权,计划融资1000亿雷亚尔(约合1200亿人民币)。目前,巴西政府已经拍卖了22个机场筹集到33亿雷亚尔(约合38.5亿人民币),远超期望的最低拍卖值。

 发达国家疫情整体边际改善,美元年内涨幅全部回吐

相对于新兴市场的失控,发达国家出现疫情整体边际改善。有外界疫苗追踪显示,全球27个最富裕国家中,超过三分之一的人接种了新冠疫苗,而这些国家的人口仅占全球人口的11%。

随着疫苗注射加速开展,发达国家经济稳步复苏,4月Markit PMI显示美欧主要国家制造业景气度维持高位,美国和英国服务业PMI大幅改善,也带动发达国家股市涨幅明显超过发展中国家。在欧洲主要国家之中,英国疫苗普及率最高,经济势头也最强劲,而德国政府已将今年的GDP增幅预期从1月份所料的3%上调到了3.5%,可以看出疫苗普及对于经济复苏的作用较大。

摩根士丹利资本国际公司(MSCI Inc)衡量发展中国家股市的指数今年迄今的涨幅略低于5%,约为类似发达国家股市指数涨幅的一半。“经济发展的天平在今年和明年将更加向发达国家倾斜。”东北证券分析师凤来仪认为,今年随着大宗商品价格的迅猛上涨,全球大多数国家都遭遇了通胀压力。高通胀带来的负面结果很多,其中之一就是汇率贬值的压力。我们对比了发达国家和发展中国家的资源型国家及非资源型国家,发现各国通胀与汇率都有明显的反向关系。而通常发展中国家的通胀水平都较发达国家更高,也更容易受到通胀的冲击。

以本轮全球性通胀中新兴市场也同时遭受了一定的汇率贬值压力。在当前疫情反弹、发展中国家普遍疫苗接种率较低的情况下,新兴市场未来将承受经济复苏相对较慢同时通胀上行、汇率贬值的压力。

由于欧元区经济复苏略超预期,美元指数震荡下挫,由3月底高点93,迅速下跌低至90.68,年内涨幅回吐。东吴证券分析师李勇认为,尽管短期美元指数震荡下挫,但中长期看,随着欧元区经济复苏的持续放缓和美国经济的强劲复苏,美元下探空间有限,大概率短期维持90以上,有较强支撑;但同时受美联储低利率政策和美元流通泛滥影响,美元指数在2023年之前上行压力较大,恐难以突破95点水平。

国泰君安分析师覃汉团队认为,从美国经济基本面出发,3月零售销售环比增长9.8%(前值-2.7%)并创10个月记录,工业产出环比增长1.4%(前值-2.6%),制造业生产环比增长2.8%(前值-3.7%),初请失业金人数降至疫情以来最低水平。因此,当美债暴跌的情绪平复导致的反向修正差不多结束,之后美债利率还会有第二波上行。至于上行空间,10年美债利率未来几个月仍有可能触及2%。

 3月人民币名义有效汇率创5年新高

随着美国的财政和货币刺激政策对需求的支撑开始逐步显现,中国作为全球贸易中的最大生产国,主要大宗商品的进口国。美国通胀会通过诸多渠道影响中国,也带动了人民币汇率的上升。

基于摩根大通指数的分析显示,人民币实际有效汇率比5年平均值高出2.8个标准差。这一差异在分析所涉及的32种主要货币中是最大的。而人民币实际有效汇率指数,已经从去年6月份的低点攀升近8%,接近历史最高点。

显然,尽管人民币也受到了美元最近走强的影响,但它强于几乎所有其他亚洲国家货币——这表明投资者将中美两国经济视为全球增长的双引擎。对美国经济复苏速度的担忧通过美国国债收益率传导至全球;中国的影响则将来自它从电子产品、家用电器、服装服饰到医疗和化工产品各类商品的出口。

另外,国际清算银行(BIS)最新公布的数据显示,3月人民币实际有效汇率指数降0.46%至129,结束此前连续八个月升势,上月修正后为升1.53%。3月人民币名义有效汇率指数升0.63%至121.6,创五年新高,上月修正后为升0.54%。

根据BIS公布的数据统计,今年人民币实际有效汇率累计涨2.10%,名义有效汇率则累计涨2.15%;2020年人民币实际有效汇率累计升3.36%,而名义有效汇率累计跌4.05%。2019年实际和名义有效汇率分别上升0.95%和下跌1.50%。

实际有效汇率上升代表本国货币相对价值上升,下降表示本币贬值。名义有效汇率剔除通胀之后即为实际有效汇率,实际有效汇率更能反映一国货币的对外价值;名义汇率降幅小于实际汇率,表明当前中国的整体通胀水平要低于可比较的国家的通胀水平。BIS的有效汇率指数是基于2014-2016年贸易数据权重,并以2010年为基期。在人民币指数的权重中,欧元、美元和日圆分列前三位。

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  • PhillipWoona

    Look of the Week: Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl pants signal the return of flares
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    This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.

    And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.

    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
    Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.

    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

    2025年2月12日
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    Cute baby animals bring visitors to zoos and aquariums. What happens when they grow up?
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    One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.

    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

    The real jackpot, though, is merchandise. Stuffed animals, T-shirts, fridge magnets, keychains, kids’ books and other branded products are a major way for zoos and aquariums to make money.

    2025年2月12日
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    Scores of unexploded World War II bombs discovered under children’s playground
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    Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.

    Local officials in the town of Wooler, Northumberland called in bomb disposal experts after workers involved in a planned overhaul of Scotts Play Park found unexploded ordnance, the parish council said in a statement sent to CNN on Monday.

    Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
    Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.

    The company told CNN that the bombs date from World War II.

    According to the parish council, all of the bombs need to be found and removed before the park can be reopened. It said 174 devices had been found so far.

    2025年2月12日
  • ForrestRat

    Cute baby animals bring visitors to zoos and aquariums. What happens when they grow up?
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    One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.

    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

    The real jackpot, though, is merchandise. Stuffed animals, T-shirts, fridge magnets, keychains, kids’ books and other branded products are a major way for zoos and aquariums to make money.

    2025年2月12日
  • PhillipWoona

    Look of the Week: Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl pants signal the return of flares
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    This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.

    And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.

    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
    Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.

    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

    2025年2月12日
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    Cute baby animals bring visitors to zoos and aquariums. What happens when they grow up?
    <a href=https://t.me/traffictemnik>арбитраж трафика как начать с нуля</a>
    One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.

    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

    The real jackpot, though, is merchandise. Stuffed animals, T-shirts, fridge magnets, keychains, kids’ books and other branded products are a major way for zoos and aquariums to make money.

    2025年2月12日
  • PhillipWoona

    Look of the Week: Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl pants signal the return of flares
    <a href=https://kra27s.cc>кракен онион</a>
    This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.

    And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.

    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
    Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.

    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

    2025年2月12日
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    Scores of unexploded World War II bombs discovered under children’s playground
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    Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.

    Local officials in the town of Wooler, Northumberland called in bomb disposal experts after workers involved in a planned overhaul of Scotts Play Park found unexploded ordnance, the parish council said in a statement sent to CNN on Monday.

    Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
    Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.

    The company told CNN that the bombs date from World War II.

    According to the parish council, all of the bombs need to be found and removed before the park can be reopened. It said 174 devices had been found so far.

    2025年2月12日
  • PhillipWoona

    Look of the Week: Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl pants signal the return of flares
    <a href=https://kra27s.cc>кракен даркнет</a>
    This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.

    And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.

    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
    Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.

    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

    2025年2月12日
  • Kevinsoype

    Scores of unexploded World War II bombs discovered under children’s playground
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    Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.

    Local officials in the town of Wooler, Northumberland called in bomb disposal experts after workers involved in a planned overhaul of Scotts Play Park found unexploded ordnance, the parish council said in a statement sent to CNN on Monday.

    Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
    Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.

    The company told CNN that the bombs date from World War II.

    According to the parish council, all of the bombs need to be found and removed before the park can be reopened. It said 174 devices had been found so far.

    2025年2月12日
  • CurtisAgils

    Cute baby animals bring visitors to zoos and aquariums. What happens when they grow up?
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    One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.

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    The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.

    Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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    That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.

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  • BobbyFroks

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    The short-term pause issued by US District Judge Loren L. AliKhan prevents the administration from carrying through with its plans to freeze funding for “open awards” already granted by the federal government through at least 5 p.m. ET Monday, February 3.
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    “The government doesn’t know the full scope of the programs that are going to be subject to the pause,” AliKhan said after pressing an attorney for the Justice Department on what programs the freeze would apply to. AliKhan is expected to consider a longer-term pause on the policy early next week.
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    The White House budget office had ordered the pause on federal grants and loans, according to an internal memorandum sent Monday.

    Federal agencies “must temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance,” White House Office of Management and Budget acting director Matthew Vaeth said in the memorandum, a copy of which was obtained by CNN, citing administration priorities listed in past executive orders.
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    2025年2月18日
  • Tomasset

    Members of the M23 armed rank slog alongside residents totally a passage of the Keshero neighborhood in Goma, on Monday. AFP/Getty Images
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  • Kevinskins

    ‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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    By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.

    “I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.

    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

    “You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”

    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

    “It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
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    Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.

    Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.

    2025年2月18日
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    2025年2月18日