最近一周，印度新冠肺炎疫情加速蔓延成为全球关注焦点。去年3月，由于疫情暴发，美国股市大幅波动，曾多次出现熔断，甚至影响到全球金融市场走势。如今，印度疫情会如何影响全球资产表现？全球经济复苏是否面临变数？哪些资产可能间接受益？
危机会否波及金融市场
近日，印度新冠肺炎疫情加速扩散，短短3天时间里，新增确诊病例超过100万人，新增死亡病例大幅上升，这令全球金融市场再度出现担忧情绪。去年3月，正是由于疫情在美国失控，全球股市大幅下跌，美股甚至多次熔断。
悲观者认为，如果印度疫情进一步恶化，全球市场可能面临重大危机。首先，印度疫情涉及变异毒株，如果大幅扩散至其他国家，可能导致疫情恶化，直接打击全球经济复苏和市场信心。其次，即使印度疫情不向外扩散，恐慌情绪也会影响金融市场表现。部分全球主要股指目前已经处于历史或阶段高位，指标显示出现严重的泡沫特征，此时印度曝出疫情扩散利空，其“火力”外溢对资本市场所带来的压力不言而喻。
去年3月暴跌行情上演时，包括美联储在内的多国央行选择释放大量流动性以刺激经济，短期确实起到明显效果。然而当前的现实是，多国央行已经无力继续维持货币宽松，部分新兴经济体国家则开启加息周期。在此时点倘若疫情加速扩散，对正在恢复的全球经济而言，其打击力度将是空前的。
不过，也有机构和投资者相对乐观。他们大多认为，首先，印度虽然是全球非常重要的出口国和新兴经济体，但其对全球经济和市场的影响力远不及美国、欧洲。其次，印度虽然面临确诊病例激增和医疗资源挤兑，但目前多款新冠肺炎疫苗问世，治疗手段远胜疫情暴发之初。即便如此，投资者仍不可掉以轻心。
谁受损 谁得利
印度新冠肺炎疫情突然恶化，大类资产中谁会受损？谁相对得利？
首先，直接受到打击的无疑是印度本国股市和货币。根据彭博统计，截至中国证券报记者发稿时，印度孟买敏感30指数4月以来累计下跌3.3%，印度卢比兑多国货币持续贬值，近一个月在亚洲主要货币中表现垫底。
其次，对于全球其他地区的风险资产以及原油而言，由于经济和需求预期下降，风险可能有所上升。富国银行最新报告预测，在当前环境下，未来几个月10年期美债收益率或将回升，这可能会影响股市表现。原油方面，据媒体报道，受到疫情影响，印度知名的芒格洛炼油和石油化工有限公司已经降低生产和加工速度。大宗商品经纪商Fujitomi首席分析师Kazuhiko Saito表示，投资者正在将资金从石油市场转向谷物市场。市场情绪会在对欧美市场暂时乐观和对印度疫情担忧之间摇摆。
然而，受到避险情绪升温影响，黄金和相关资产可能受益。根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新数据，上周投机者持有的黄金投机性净多头增加624手期货和期权合约，至181498手合约，这表明投资者对黄金的看多情绪升温。
对中国市场而言，投资者无需担忧，预计受上述事件影响有限。从大环境看，近期美元指数(90.9547, 0.1166, 0.13%)走软，美股估值过高，部分资金近期持续增配处于价值洼地的中国资产寻求避险。从行业板块来看，部分行业和优质标的近期反而可能迎来机会。例如，印度和中国同为全球原料药市场巨头。如果印度供应下降，市场空缺很可能由中国企业补足，投资者可以关注A股中的部分优质原料药以及制剂相关标的。
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