4月20日外汇交易提醒:美元逼近91关口,欧元(1.2038, 0.0000, 0.00%)突破1.20,英镑(1.3978, -0.0005, -0.04%)飙升150点
周一(4月19日)美元指数(91.0877, -0.0055, -0.01%)跌0.49%,至91.09,继续3月底开始的下跌趋势;美元全线大幅走软,兑日元、瑞郎(0.9154, 0.0006, 0.07%)、澳元(0.7766, 0.0011, 0.14%)、纽元及欧元等G10货币触及数周低点。FXSTREET.COM高级分析师Joseph Trevisani表示,这与今年前三个月的走势相反,当时美元兑这些主要货币走高,因美国国债收益率上升,美元资产带来更高回报。
美联储理事沃勒上周五表示,随着更多美国人接种疫苗,疫情得到控制,消费者更愿意参与经济活动,美国经济将迎来腾飞,但通胀上升可能是暂时的,这与包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的其他美联储官员过去一周的言论相呼应。他们的言论与市场预期相悖,市场认为,美联储官员将在强劲的经济数据中看到通胀上升的迹象,并决定比他们所暗示的更早收紧货币政策。
汇市和债市都在关注周三的两件事,以寻找利率走势的线索:一个是240亿美元20年期美国国债标售,二是加拿大央行有关何时可能削减国债购买并允许升息的声明。Trevisani表示,加拿大央行可能会暗示将收紧货币政策,从而预示美国利率未来的走向,这也是美联储最终必须走的方向。
Saxo Bank外汇策略主管称,上周美元跌势展开之际正逢“美国非常强劲的经济数据未能引发美债续跌之际”;美国10年期国债收益率较3月30日触及的年内高点下跌了近20个基点。
法国农业信贷银行G10外汇研究部门主管Valentin Marinov指出,事实上,美元涨势已几乎成为遥远的记忆,美元表现不佳似乎反映出,美债收益率回落与其他地方国债收益率相当活跃的前景之间的明显分化。这几乎与我们在3月份看到的走势完全相反。
欧元兑美元一度升0.54%至1.2048,为3月4日以来的最高水平,反映出人们预期疫苗推出速度的加快将提振欧洲央行对经济的前景展望。在欧洲央行周四利率决定之前,高盛将其三个月欧元兑美元汇率预期从1.21上调至1.25;高盛建议投资者抛售德国30年期债券,称央行增加其债券购买的可能性降低。欧元兑挪威克朗下跌0.3%,盘中一度跌0.6%至2020年1月以来最低。
欧洲央行周四将召开会议,其内部在债券购买速度、新冠疫情封锁延长以及欧盟复苏基金可能推迟等问题上存在分歧。
英镑在G-10货币中涨幅最大,英镑兑美元一度涨1.2%,英国迅速的疫苗接种计划和重新开放时间表继续使投资者信心倍增。
美元兑日元(108.20, 0.0600, 0.06%)跌0.58%报108.17,为3月5日以来最低,并接近其50天移动平均线;日元走高是因为美国与俄罗斯之间的紧张关系,刺激了对避险资产的需求。
其它货币对方面,澳元兑美元涨0.32%至0.7759,盘中触及0.7785,为3月18日以来最高水平;
纽元兑美元涨0.60%至0.7185。美元兑加元(1.2522, -0.0008, -0.06%)涨0.22%至1.2535。
周二前瞻
09:30 澳洲联储公布货币政策会议纪要
20:30 费城联储发布4月份非制造业企业前景调查报告
机构观点汇总
美联储缄默期开始之际,市场加息预期降温
在美联储进入4月28日政策决定公布前的缄默期之际,欧洲美元期货市场对美联储加息的预期在过去两周急剧下降;2022年12月到期欧洲美元期货显示,预期加息幅度从25个基点减少了15个基点左右,这促使花旗策略师Jason Williams反向押注,以收益率曲线趋陡为目标。
他在上周五报告中写道,加息预期下降是“令人费解的变化”,与加息周期快于预期这种现实可能性相抵触;尾部风险之所以存在,是因为未来一两年核心PCE物价指数很可能远超2%,从而可能带来更快的加息周期;我们认为,曲线短端牛市趋平的走势短期内不可持续。
在经济数据强劲的情况下,美国国债意外上涨,使收益率曲线在上周趋平。五年期和七年期国债需求浓厚,表明对美联储加息的预期已经没有今年稍早那么激进;不过Williams称,接下来两个月的经济数据不太可能打压较长期通胀预期,并且今年夏季美联储可能有更偏鹰派的言论,尤其是关于收缩货币支持政策的言论。
Williams写道,鉴于收益率曲线围绕美联储计划的历史走势,接下来可能出现牛市趋陡,也就是收益率下降而曲线变陡。他建议客户利用期权市场做有条件押注牛市趋陡的交易,若加息预期回升就可以获利。
受英国经济前景提振,英镑兑美元再次测试1.40一线
英镑兑美元
周一连续第六个交易日上涨,随着新冠疫苗接种计划的快速推进,英国服务业正在重启,与此同时美国的通货再膨胀交易主题降温。
英镑兑美元
突破50日均线,创下自12月23日以来最大单日涨幅。Monex Europe Ltd.的高级外汇分析师Simon Harvey表示,英镑的涨幅扩大主要由于疫苗接种方面的积极消息推动经济解封。美国经济的突出表现正在失去光芒。
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