4月17日，“2021清华五道口金融赋能科技创新论坛”在上海国际会议中心举办。
中国社会科学院经济研究所教授、中国首席经济学家论坛30人成员刘煜辉作了主题为“美元超级扩张周期下的两极世界”的演讲。
谈到美国国债，刘煜辉表示，今天巨量的美债最后只有一个实质性的买家，那就是美联储自己。来自西方宪政制度层面的约束几乎完全消失，完全靠美元回流之类的市场机制来平衡，无疑给未来埋下了巨大的波动性隐患。超级美元扩张周期下，“高货币、低利率、高波动 ”不可避免。
刘煜辉进一步提出，中国将会进行真正实质性的发展模式转型。金融周期的见顶回落以及信用的收紧都是我们今年面临的大环境。科技将是影响未来的重要机会点。
刘煜辉还谈到了人民币(6.5290, 0.0084, 0.13%)升值背后的“远”和“近”。刘煜辉认为，从远程来看，人民币长程开启升值通道。他解释称，“2035年远景目标”提出，到2035年我国人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。也就是说，2035年中国要达到人均国内生产总值2.4万美元的目标。从现在的人均1万美元到15年后2.4万美元，按自然增长率来算，这15年每年复利为5%~6%。要想达到这一目标，其中一部分还是要靠汇率的升值。
此外，刘煜辉认为，从近程来看，人民币名义汇率与真实汇率之间的“巴萨裂口”，增加克服通货膨胀的工作压力。
“通货膨胀对应的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森模型，就是名义汇率和真实汇率之间的巴萨裂口，裂口没有收敛，没收敛的情况下还要张大，增加短期的通货膨胀压力。
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