欧元/美元周四(4月15日)升至四周最高水平1.999,但难以维持其看涨势头,目前小幅下跌至1.1967。
由于美国国债收益率下降,围绕美元的温和抛售压力帮助欧元/美元小幅走高。美国人口普查局公布的数据显示,3月份零售额环比增长9.8%,超过市场预期的5.9%。此外,上周初请失业金人数从76.9万人降至57.6万人,为一年来最低水平。
尽管美元指数(91.7812, 0.1105, 0.12%)在对这些数据的最初反应下小幅走高,但随着收益率延续跌势,美元指数抹去了跌幅。目前,基准10年期美国国债收益率日内下跌至1.543%,美元指数维持在91.65附近持平。
周五,欧盟统计局将公布通胀数据。投资者预计3月份欧元区的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)将保持在1.3%不变。低于预期的数据可能会拖累欧元,反之亦然。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)则讨论了对下周欧洲央行政策会议的预期。首先,该行预计央行行长拉加德将发出信号,表明管理委员会对其加大购买PEPP的力度感到满意。其次,尽管近期风险仍倾向于下行,但该行预计管理委员会将进一步注意上行活动风险,因为近期疫苗接种的步伐加快,总体上鼓舞了欧元区数据和美国财政计划。”第三,该行预计管理委员会将强调,尽管最近通胀数据有所上升,但通胀前景仍远低于其目标。
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