周二（4月13日）上午，中国海关总署将公布3月份贸易数据。综合逾20家机构预测中值显示，在海外经济持续复苏背景之下，中国3月出口同比预计能保持两位数高增长，而大宗商品价格上涨、内需改善等因素将支撑进口增速持稳。
注：中国海关总署1月、2月贸易数据合并公布，前值为1-2月数据；具体数据公布时间可能会提前或者延后
出口预测
国泰君安宏观团队花长春等表示，3月主要经济体制造业PMI动能延续高景气，海外经济动能今年前三个月仍然较强，可比国家看，韩国3月出口仍处高增长区间。预计3月中国出口增速为32.4%。
交通银行金融研究中心报告称，外需增强，出口高增预期不变。国际大宗商品价格总体上涨和国内需求走强，预计进口维持稳增，贸易顺差预计在350亿美元。
招商证券宏观团队指出，3月以来，各经济体疫苗进展差距较大，疫情因子或贯穿全年；欧元区PMI指数破新高，收录62.4，美日PMI指数均维持景气，海外经济基本面良好支撑中国出口。预计防疫用品、地产周期产业链商品、传统商品的出口都将获得支撑。“综合考虑基期因素，出口将保持高速增长，预计在28.5%”。
进口预测
进口方面，他们称，3月以来，中国PMI指数维持景气区间，国内生产趋于稳定；大宗商品价格持续上涨，如原油维持60美元左右、金属价格也维持高位，对进口额增速会带来边际效应。综合考虑基期因素，进口将维持较高增速水平，在12.3%。
国泰君安宏观团队认为，由于价格上3月进口的主要大宗商品价格同比涨幅扩大，整体对进口金额带来支撑，国内进口PMI强于季节性，预计3月进口增速19.4%，贸易顺差为479亿美元。
官方最新观点
4月8日，商务部新闻发言人高峰在商务部例行新闻发布会上回应称，今年一季度中国外贸开局良好。外贸企业在手订单较去年有所改善，但全年外贸发展面临的不稳定不确定因素仍然较多，将保持政策的连续性稳定性可持续性。在积极扩大进口方面，将继续配合财政部等部门，优化调整进口税收政策，推动增加优质产品和服务进口。
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