外资将进一步流入中国市场 人民币资产具有长期投资价值

2021年04月12日 32756点热度 0人点赞 6,420条评论

当前世界正处于百年未有之大变局,大国战略博弈加剧,国际经济体系深刻变革,不确定、不稳定因素明显增多。2020年新冠肺炎疫情大流行更是对世界经济格局走向的一次重大外部冲击,不仅加剧了国家间竞争力的结构性调整,同时也促进了世界经济中心向亚洲转移。2020年,中国把握住了危机中蕴藏的实体经济发展机遇,率先从新冠肺炎疫情中实现经济复苏。在全球主要经济体央行持续实施量化宽松货币政策、美国经济严重衰退的背景下,中国经济的长期稳定性和人民币资产日益增强的避险属性,促使外资进入中国市场的意愿持续提高。展望2021年,中国经济开始步入“十四五”时期,双循环新发展格局正在形成,人民币国际化面临全新的发展机遇,国际投资者对人民币资产的认可度将持续提高。

外资持有人民币资产的最新情况

高水平金融开放是构建新发展格局的关键一环,也是促进中国经济高质量发展的有力支撑。为推动中国资本市场国际化进程,我国于2014年和2016年先后开通“沪港通”“深港通”互联互通机制,于2017年开通“债券通(北向)”,于2019年开通“沪伦通”及中日交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)互通;2019年,取消QFII(合格境外机构投资者)、RQFII(人民币合格境外机构投资者)投资额度限制,旨在为境外投资者配置人民币资产提供便捷的渠道。与此同时,我国资本市场正逐步获得国际主流投资者的认可,中国A股、债券等金融产品先后被纳入主要国际指数,吸引大量外资主动或被动流入中国市场。伴随着我国金融开放步伐的加快,2020年国际投资者对人民币资产的投资持续增加。

(一)股票市场

1.陆股通成为境外投资者配置中国A股资产的主要渠道

外资可通过QFII、RQFII和沪深港通等渠道进入中国A股市场。其中,QFII、RQFII仅限于机构投资者,有较高的投资门槛,而沪深港通则具备投资门槛低、结算灵活、汇入汇出无限制等特点。陆股通(沪股通、深股通)作为北向资金通过互联互通机制进入中国股票市场的投资通道,对QFII的替代趋势较为明显,逐渐成为境外投资者投资A股的最主要渠道。数据显示,外资通过陆股通持有中国A股市值近年持续攀升。截至2020年第三季度,陆股通持股市值达到18803.55亿元人民币,而通过QFII/RQFII进入中国A股的外资份额则保持了相对稳定,持股市值为2383.63亿元,二者差异呈持续扩大之势

外资将进一步流入中国市场 人民币资产具有长期投资价值

2.北向资金规模略有下降但全年实现净流入、高收益

2020年,在全球新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下,外围经济形势不确定性增加,全球资金风险偏好降低,使得境外投资者减少了新兴资本市场资产配置。受此影响,2020年北向资金全年净流入2089亿元,较2019年的3517亿元的净流入规模减少了41%。2020年3月,新冠肺炎疫情导致市场恐慌情绪蔓延,原油价格下跌,美股多次熔断,北向资金大规模流出中国A股市场,净流出规模高达679亿元。2020年9月,尽管人民币升值明显,但由于外围形势不确定性提升,北向资金再次净流出328亿元(见图2)。尽管新兴市场整体面临着外资流入削减甚至资金流出的负面冲击,中国仍然凭借有力的疫情防控和及时复工复产实现了2020年股票市场的不俗走势。截至2020年年底,北向资金持有中国A股市值达到了2.3万亿元,相较于2019年年底的1.4万亿元有大幅提升,外资持有A股市值增加主要源于持股收益瞩目,剔除当年净流入的2089亿元资金后,收益率高达50%。

外资将进一步流入中国市场 人民币资产具有长期投资价值

(二)债券市场

1.债券通为中国债券市场提供了巨大增量空间

自2010年三类机构(境外央行或货币当局、港澳地区人民币清算行、境外跨境贸易人民币结算参加行)获批进入我国银行间债券市场以来,人民币债券市场逐步向境外投资者开放。2013年,QFII和RQFII获批进入银行间市场;2015年至2016年,银行间市场向境外投资者扩大可投资范围并取消投资额度限制,开放程度进一步加大;2017年,“债券通”的落地提高了境外机构通过不同渠道投资中国债券市场的便利度,满足了全球投资者购买人民币资产的需求;2020年,在全球经济遭受重创的背景下,我国债券收益率在全球主要国家中表现相对突出,人民币资产表现出一定程度的避险特征,中美利差大幅走阔,使得外资流入中国债券市场的意愿增强。中央结算中心与上海清算所的数据汇总显示,截至2020年年底,境外投资者持有人民币债券(含同业存单)的总量超3.2万亿元,较2019年增长了48.8%

2.国债占比仍居高位,政策性金融债吸引力持续增强

根据中央结算公司与上海清算所统计月报披露的境外机构持有中国债券的券种结构,记账式国债、政策性金融债、同业存单持有量合计占比超90%,是境外机构持有人民币债券的主要形式(见图4)。其中,外资持有的国债占比由2020年年初的约60%降至年底的57.82%,而政策性金融债占比则由22.85%上升至28.31%,二者变动方向与2019年保持一致。为鼓励和吸引境外资本参与国内经济发展,我国自2018年年底出台了境外机构投资境内债券利息收入免税政策,使得利率比国债高出几十个基点的政策性金融债增强了吸引力,境外投资者进一步加速配置政策性金融债。总体而言,境外机构购买人民币债券表现出追求稳定收益的特征,以投资利率为主要目的,而对信用债的持有比例较低。此外,我国2020年债券爆雷事件频发,债券市场信用评级体系暴露出较大缺陷,也增加了外资对我国信用债的担忧。

三)整体评价

2020年境外投资者持续进入中国资本市场,人民币资产吸引力进一步增强。一是由于中国未采用零利率和量化宽松等非常规货币政策,在世界各国纷纷进入零利率或负利率时代的背景下,我国与其他国家的利差优势为全球投资者带来了超额回报。二是由于中国资本市场估值相对偏低,对于以价值投资为主的境外投资者而言,高回报、低估值的人民币资产具有长期投资价值。三是由于我国经济稳健复苏,成为2020年全球唯一经济正增长的主要经济体,境外投资者通过配置人民币资产可分享中国经济的发展红利。四是由于中国资本市场开放政策实施效果显著,向全球释放出积极信号,外资普遍对人民币持有较强信心。

但也要看到,尽管近年来外资持续增加人民币资产配置,但当前外资在中国A股和银行间债券市场中持有市值的占比仍处在较低水平,与成熟资本市场相比差距悬殊,中国资本市场对于外资流入还存在广阔的增量空间。未来,中国应继续加快推进金融市场开放,提高资本市场资源配置效率,建设高标准市场体系,提升人民币国际化水平,进一步增强人民币资产国际金融市场的竞争力。

2021年市场环境变化趋势

(一)国际形势

1.美国财政刺激计划呼之欲出,美联储将维持宽松货币政策

作为世界主要储备货币、流通货币的发行国,美国宏观政策对世界经济具有明显的外溢效应。财政政策方面,2021年1月,美国新任总统拜登公布了名为“美国营救计划”的经济刺激计划,总规模将达到1.9万亿美元,以拯救因新冠肺炎疫情受到重创的美国经济。若大规模财政刺激计划顺利通过国会立法,则需要财政部增加国债发行量以提供资金来源。较高的发债融资需求,将推动美债收益率走高,从而使美国政府的债务压力愈加沉重。货币政策方面,美联储2020年12月议息会议纪要文件显示,公开市场委员会成员普遍支持保持债券购买计划直到经济显示出持久复苏迹象,而一旦就业及通胀目标取得实质性进展,美联储就可以开始逐步缩减资产购买。“缩减”一词首次出现在会议纪要中,市场预期美联储缩减量化宽松的货币政策或将比原定计划提前。

可以预期的是,若1.9万亿美元财政刺激计划顺利落地,短期内美联储会继续配合购买债券,并维持低利率环境以控制政府融资成本,2021年将持续为全球市场注入新的流动性。而随着财政刺激对美国经济的提振作用及新冠肺炎疫苗的接种,美国经济预计于2021年下半年起会显露复苏态势,美联储或于2021年年底或2022年年初缩减量化宽松规模。中长期看,美联储量化宽松政策退出将导致全球资本流向逆转,进而引发新兴经济体资产价格缩水及金融市场波动,人民币汇率及人民币资产将可能因此面临一些新的考验。

2.美债收益率回升,中美利差收窄

在美债收益率方面,一是美国财政刺激计划首先需要通过大量增发国债弥补资金缺口,增加债券供给;二是投资者普遍看好财政刺激计划对美国经济的支撑作用,市场情绪乐观;三是基于美国积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策,再通胀预期增强。上述三个因素将共同推升2021年美债收益率。但由于美联储将继续维持政策利率稳定,预计美债收益率上升幅度不会过大。反观中国,中央经济工作会议已明确了2021年宏观政策要保持连续性、稳定性、可持续性,并强调政策操作上“不急转弯”。这既体现了我国宏观政策正常化的大方向已经明确,也表明政策收紧步调不会过快,中国经济复苏依然需要结构性货币政策的支持。因此,中短期内,中国将继续实施稳健的货币政策,与欧美等世界主要国家在政策上的分化将有所收敛,由此或导致中美利差开始收窄。截至2021年1月底,中美10年期国债收益率差已由2020年250个基点的历史高点收窄至207个基点。从中长期看,受到美债收益率上升及中国政策退出等因素影响,预计美国10年期国债收益率或将超1.5%,中美利差将继续收敛至100至150个基点区间。

3.美元弱势周期或将到来,人民币延续升值态势

自2020年5月起,美元指数(92.28020.09460.10%)持续疲软,而人民币、欧元(1.1887-0.0014-0.12%)、日元等均相对走强。展望2021年,尽管美元的国际货币体系主导地位短期内不会改变,美债收益率也将有一定程度的回升,但美国政府的巨额债务赤字则会增加投资者对其风险的担忧。与此同时,全球经济复苏预期不断强化,投资者对美元的避险需求降低,叠加美联储主席鲍威尔承诺零利率将延续到2023年,宽松货币政策可能引发通胀。尽管新一轮财政刺激可能导致短期美元指数反弹,但从中长期趋势看,美元或已进入新一轮弱势周期。

与之相对的是,2020年人民币汇率呈现出先抑后扬的趋势,美元兑人民币中间价重回6.5时代。同时,我国外汇市场平稳运行,相较于同期欧元和日元8%的波动率,人民币兑美元的一年期历史波动率为4.2%,人民币汇率保持了基本稳定。预计人民币兑美元汇率将在未来一段时间内继续走强,但上升节奏会放缓。一方面,2021年中国仍将成为世界经济复苏的主要动力,预计全年GDP增速可达8%~9%,人民币资产对境外投资者的吸引力会进一步增强;但另一方面,海外新冠肺炎疫情防控及全球经济复苏进度将增加中国商品出口的不确定性,美国新一届政府对华政策也存在不确定性,或因此导致人民币汇率的较大波动。

4.国际资本流动规模增长,全球风险偏好回升

总体来看,2021年世界经济形势具有较强不确定性,而其决定性影响因素仍是世界各国的新冠肺炎疫情防控效果。若新冠肺炎疫苗接种良好,全球范围内新冠肺炎疫情能在2021年下半年开始好转,则全球经济有望实现反弹。在国际货币基金组织(IMF)2021年1月发布的最新版本《世界经济展望报告》中,预计2021年全球经济增长5.5%。如果考虑弱势美元周期的到来会促进全球需求扩张,商品贸易和直接投资会重新活跃,2021年国际资本流动规模有望增长。

此外,2020年全球资本表现出先大幅流出、后逐渐回流新兴市场的特点。2020年第一季度,新冠肺炎疫情在全球暴发导致投资者避险情绪高涨,短期资本迅速撤离新兴市场;而2020年第二至第四季度,随着世界主要经济体大规模救助政策的出台,市场风险偏好回升,流动性危机缓解,国际资本重新向新兴市场回流。根据国际金融协会(IIF)的统计,2020年全年,累计约有3130亿美元流入新兴市场,比2019年减少了480亿美元。进入2021年,对新冠肺炎疫情防控及经济复苏的乐观预期将使投资者对新兴市场资本流动持谨慎乐观态度,预计国际资本仍将积极流向新兴经济体。但同时需重点关注新兴经济体巨额债务危机,警惕主权债务违约风险。

(二)国内政策

构建“双循环”新发展格局,实现更高水平的对外开放。2020年,习近平总书记提出要“逐步形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”。在世界经济持续低迷、全球市场萎缩、逆全球化和贸易保护主义抬头的背景下,“双循环”新发展格局是适应内外部环境变化的重大战略调整。新发展格局既强调以内循环为主体,发挥我国超大规模市场优势和内需潜力,提升产业基础能力和产业链现代化水平,坚持把创新作为引领发展的第一动力,也强调内外循环的相互促进,促进内外市场和规则的对接,积极参与国际分工并提高中国自身在全球价值链中的位置。新发展格局有助于改善我国面临的技术领域“卡脖子”等突出问题,为中国经济发展提供新动能。中国经济高质量发展将为人民币国际化及人民币资产投资价值提供基本面支撑,提升人民币资产的长期吸引力。

为更好地利用国际国内两个市场、两种资源,我国必须实施更高水平的对外开放,更加有效地融入全球产业链、供应链、价值链。2020年11月,东盟十国以及中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰15个国家正式签署区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP),标志着全球规模最大的自由贸易协定正式达成。随后,中国又宣布将积极考虑加入全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(CPTPP),进一步扩大自贸协定范围。2020年12月,中欧投资协定谈判如期完成,标志着中国与欧盟经济和投资关系进入新阶段。在中国持续推动贸易和投资自由化、便利化的同时,人民币在跨境贸易与投资结算中的规模逐步扩大,越来越多的国家和地区认可并接受人民币;同时,中国资本市场双向有序开放,也满足了境外投资者配置人民币资产的需求。

人民币资产未来前景展望

(一)总体趋势

综合上述分析,基于中国经济基本面走势明朗、利率及汇率水平合理且基本稳定、国际资本风险偏好上升等因素,预计2021年人民币资产对外资吸引力将进一步增强。驱动境外投资者增配人民币资产的原因主要有两个方面。一是高收益。在全球普遍低利率环境下,投资者追求投资回报的难度增加,而人民币资产的超额回报在全球范围内具有竞争优势。二是低相关性。人民币资产能够帮助全球投资者合理配置资产、分散投资风险,在充满不确定性的国际形势中,人民币资产与世界主要资产的低相关性有助于全球投资者实现投资的多元化组合。由于人民币资产表现出难得的高收益、低风险特点,未来将进一步受到国际投资者的青睐。

(二)市场趋势

1.股票市场持续看涨,科创板股票纳入互联互通标的

2020年,中国上证综合指数上涨13.87%,深证成分指数上涨38.73%,创业板指数上涨64.96%,在全球经济普遍缩水的情况下提交了一份令投资者满意的答卷。2021年,全球投资者普遍看好权益类资产,而中国A股市场又凭借经济的强大韧性在全球范围内占据优势。2020年,新冠肺炎疫情导致全球实体经济遭受重创。随着经济复苏的到来,2021年企业盈利回升将进一步推高股票的回报率。同时,美国、欧盟、日本等世界主要经济体依靠财政刺激政策振兴经济,也将持续为市场注入流动性,推动股市行情上涨。随着中国金融市场开放的不断发展,外资对A股投资者结构、估值体系、市场波动等都会产生巨大的影响,有助于我国完善市场制度、加速市场成熟并促进资本市场的健康发展。

在对外开放制度方面,我国内地与香港资本市场互联互通机制持续优化,科创板股票纳入“沪港通”已取得实质性进展。2020年11月,上海证券交易所和中证指数有限公司宣布,上市时间超过一年的科创板证券将进入上证180、沪深300等成份指数样本空间。自2021年2月起,属于上证180、上证380指数成份股及A+H股公司的A股科创板股票正式纳入沪股通股票范围。当前,外资对我国股票市场科技、医药等板块青睐有加,投资渠道的进一步打开,将为2021年乃至更长期我国A股市场持续提供外资增量。

2.债券市场前景广阔,中国国债继续纳入主流国际指数

据中国人民银行的数据,2020年年底我国债券市场托管余额为117万亿元,债券市场依然是我国实体经济融资的重要渠道。债券市场利差是海外资金配置境内资产的重要驱动力。如前所述,2021年美债收益率将呈明显的上行趋势,而中美利差的收窄不利于外资流入我国债券市场。在此背景下,外资对人民币债券的配置策略或出现分化,部分投资者开始放缓增持步伐,但更多机构对人民币债券会持续看好。境外央行等主权类稳健型投资者是持有境内债券的主力,而随着中国经济的强大韧性与潜力受到更多国际投资者的认可,人民币国际储备货币属性有所提升,境外央行配置人民币债券的需求应会持续增大。

随着债券市场对外开放的持续推进,主流国际指数纳入中国债券将有新动作。此前,富时罗素已宣布预期从2021年10月起,分阶段将中国国债纳入富时世界国债指数,预计未来一到两年内会有超过1000亿美元规模的资金流入中国,为人民币债券市场提供更多的增量资金。此外,债券南向通的开通时间一直是境内外投资者关注和期待的焦点,而2020年12月中国人民银行与香港金融管理局一同研究探讨了“南向通”的框架性方案,这将帮助国际投资者更好地熟悉中国债券市场,有利于资金的双向流动,促进中国资本市场进一步与国际接轨。

政策建议

长期来看,外资持续增配人民币资产将是未来趋势。这既能够为我国实体经济发展提供更充裕的资金支持,也有助于提高我国在国际金融市场的话语权。对此,本文提出如下建议。

一是防范跨境资本异常流动,谨防触发重大金融风险。中国在金融市场开放的同时,也面临着更大的风险敞口,应避免外部环境的不确定性引发国内市场震荡,防范国际金融风险传染。应鼓励境外长期投资流入并投入实体经济,警惕国际投机资本的套利及套汇行为扰乱中国金融市场,严厉打击资金非法跨境转移危害金融安全与稳定,防止其干扰中国经济运行、引发通货膨胀等。

二是在稳妥有序的前提下进一步开放金融市场,促进跨境投融资的便利化。在投资流程方面,中国应继续简化和加快境外投资者进入中国市场的流程,为境外投资者进入中国市场提供便利。在投资产品方面,要逐步放宽境外投资者能够在我国交易的标的种类和投资限制,满足境外投资者分散化、多样化的投资需求,增强外资配置人民币资产的意愿。

三是完善金融市场基础制度建设。中国资本市场作为新兴市场,其制度建设存在较多不完善之处。对此,应平衡好资本市场的融资及投资功能,为境内外投资者及企业营造一个公开、公平、公正的投融资交易平台和经营环境,扩大直接融资比重,提高资源配置效率。应进一步提高机构投资者在股票市场的占比,教育并引导投资者的价值投资理念,改善资本市场结构。应健全债券市场信用评级体系,构建信用风险缓释和债券违约防范机制,为境外机构以债券形式储备人民币解决后顾之忧。

四是持续推进人民币国际化。当前人民币在官方外汇储备、全球支付中的占比仅2%左右,人民币的国际地位远无法匹配中国作为世界第二大经济体的经济地位。对此,应发挥我国贸易大国优势,抓住“一带一路”为人民币国际化提供的新机遇,营造以人民币自由使用为基础的新型互利合作关系,积极推动跨境人民币业务的全面开展,加快以人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)为代表的金融基础设施建设,推动人民币逐步实现周边化、区域化及国际化。

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    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

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    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

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    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月5日
  • Bryannaf

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月5日
  • Rogerhax

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月5日
  • JeremyVeS

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月5日
  • HarryCib

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月5日
  • HermanpussY

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月5日
  • StacyReers

    Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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    A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

    These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

    “Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
    Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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    “While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

    Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

    “South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
    “This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

    The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

    2025年1月5日
  • Mosesjek

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月5日
  • Ernesther

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月5日
  • WilliamDip

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月5日
  • Joshuahek

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月5日
  • Victorlok

    Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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    A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

    These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

    “Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
    Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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    “While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

    Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

    “South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
    “This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

    The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

    2025年1月5日
  • DanielCoody

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月5日
  • DanielcaB

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月5日
  • Josephwopsy

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月5日
  • Richardrat

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月5日
  • Brianevels

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月5日
  • Jaredses

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月5日
  • KeithBut

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月5日
  • CoreyScova

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月5日
  • GeorgeTeern

    Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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    A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

    These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

    “Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
    Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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    “While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

    Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

    “South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
    “This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

    The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

    2025年1月5日
  • Davidrah

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月5日
  • Floydlit

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月5日
  • GeorgeKen

    Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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    Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

    Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

    He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月5日
  • CharlesFus

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月5日
  • Edwarddum

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月5日
  • EdwardEvedo

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月6日
  • Forrestsow

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月6日
  • WesleyTrita

    Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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    A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

    These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

    “Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
    Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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    “While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

    Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

    “South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
    “This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

    The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

    2025年1月6日
  • Kennethbub

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月6日
  • Jeromesup

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月6日
  • Matthewjat

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月6日
  • Spencerornaw

    Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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    Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

    Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

    He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月6日
  • WilliamGob

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月6日
  • DanielWaith

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月6日
  • Randallgreft

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月6日