鲍威尔:美联储将继续支持经济 希望通胀在一段时间内“适度”高于2% 来源:金十数据
周一(4月12日)07:00,美联储主席鲍威尔出席了哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)的节目《60分钟》。
鲍威尔延续一贯的讲话立场,表示美联储将支持经济,直到复苏完成,过快重启经济是复苏的“主要风险”。他说有了疫苗接种,“你将看到非常强劲的经济扩张的恢复”,2008年金融危机重演的可能性“非常低”。
鲍威尔提到了通胀问题,称他的确希望通胀在一段时间内“适度”高于2%,但美联储不希望通胀实质性地超过2%,以免回到“糟糕的旧通胀时代”。现在看来,庞大的联邦赤字并不会导致通货膨胀。
关于数字货币,鲍威尔表示,美联储正在努力研究数字货币,但尚未做出决定。可能的数字货币也许能带来好处,但涉及一系列“微妙、复杂”的问题。
关于就业,鲍威尔称,希望离开劳动力市场的人群重回就业市场,美国部分地区经济已全面复苏,但实际差距依然存在,在国会和美联储的支持下,经济复苏一直“比我预期的好,持续地好”。对许多人来说,疫情带来的衰退已经结束,但对其他数百万人来说并没有结束,“我们将把这些人放在心里”。
虽然鲍威尔称前景已经大幅好转,但他也提到了一些依然存在的风险。
他说,以一些历史衡量标准来看,部分资产价格上涨。美联储无法预测资产泡沫,更关注的是如果冲击发生时系统的韧性。
鲍威尔表示,他正在密切监测Archegos爆仓事件的情况,但这似乎没有引发有关金融体系或相关机构稳定性的问题。他相信金融体系有足够的资金承受市场的重大冲击。
分析称,美联储坚定维持宽松政策的立场暂时压过了通胀隐忧。
2021年初主导债市的通货再膨胀交易已经有所缓和,此前被美联储超宽松政策和巨额财政刺激推高的通胀预期衡量指标已在高位停滞,尚未得到实际数据的持续支持。收益率曲线也是如此,美债收益率已从近期的峰值回落。这不仅关系到债券仓位,如果没有数据的后续支持,市场对美联储最早在2022年底收紧政策的押注可能会消退,可能削弱对美元的需求。
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