每日经济新闻
● 拜登政府推行的2万亿美元基建计划，方向没有太大问题，问题是，在执行过程中是否会过度？
● 未来要实现高债务下的金融稳定，对各国央行的货币政策制定都会带来很大的掣肘。
每经记者 张卓青 每经编辑 易启江
为了应对新冠疫情对经济造成的冲击，从去年3月起，美联储便采取了极度宽松的货币政策。美国作为全球最大经济体，其本国的经济、货币政策影响外溢到国际市场，实际上对国际市场产生了很大影响。
当我们回顾2008年金融危机的历史时，也可以发现，这场危机从一开始美国国内的次债危机，最后演变成了全球性的金融危机，席卷各国。随后，美联储采取的量化宽松政策，给全球经济留下不少后遗症，比如债务集聚以及资产泡沫等。
那么，目前美联储超宽松货币政策所产生的溢出效应，是否也会对未来全球经济埋下一个大雷？比如，通胀上行、债务积累等等。这种情况下，对中国这样的新兴经济体，会不会带来负面影响？我们该采取怎样的应对办法，来减少重要经济体国内的货币及经济政策溢出效应所带来的负面影响？
在4月10日，由清华大学五道口金融学院主办的清华五道口首席经济学家论坛上，摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌对于《每日经济新闻》记者提出的以上问题进行了回应。
拜登政府刺激政策，在执行过程中会否过度？
朱海斌认为，中美两个大国在面对新冠疫情冲击时，所采取的应对政策与2008年金融危机时采取的政策正好是相反的，两国之间似乎实现了一种位置互换。
他继续讲道：“在新冠疫情这一轮危机来临之后，中国采取的刺激政策其实是非常克制的。事实上，中国也是第一个正在逐步退出疫情刺激政策的国家，今年的宏观和货币政策会逐步回归正常化。”
反观美国，吸取了2008年政策推出过慢过缓的教训，所以在去年出现公共疫情危机之后，美国的政策反应速度非常快，且（操作总量）上也是非常大的。
他表示，今天大家也讨论了很多关于美联储的超宽松货币政策什么时候会退出、什么时候开始加息等。
近期，拜登政府出台了1.9万亿美元财政刺激政策，随后计划推出2万亿美元的基建计划，对于如此大规模的刺激计划，朱海斌认为是有其合理性的。
他的观点是：美国的经济还没有回到正常状态，目前还有大概八百万的失业人口，在此前提下，美国政府再进一步推出持续的刺激，是一个合理的政策选择。
“政策整个方向是没有太大问题的，但是，是不是在执行过程中会有些过度？以后会导致一些问题。”他说道。
这一担忧，未来或诱发“布雷顿森林体系崩溃”式局面
针对拜登政府公布的2万亿美元基建计划后续可能会带来的问题，朱海斌抛出了自己的疑问：2万多亿的基建投资到底需要采取何种方式来融资？到底是由财政赤字，也就是发行更多的国债，还是通过加税的方式（来融资）？
如果是发行国债的话，那么美国财政的可持续性将会面临很大问题。那就是：当对于美国国债可持续性的担忧累积到一定程度之后，不仅会反映在全球金融市场，甚至在未来的10-15年，有可能会诱发类似于布雷顿森林体系在1973年崩溃那样的局面，也就是说，国际货币体系的一个重新洗牌和重组。（注：布雷顿森林体系，指二战后以美元为中心、美元与黄金挂钩的国际货币体系。）
朱海斌强调，这个风险是不能忽视的，尤其考虑到在疫情之后，不仅是美国，主要的欧洲国家、新兴市场国家都出台了非常大的经济刺激计划。他援引国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，去年全球平均的债务GDP比例增长了35个百分点，摩根大通估计的数据也与IMF相近。
在这种情况下，未来既想要达到经济平衡又能实现去杠杆，几乎是一个不可能的任务。所以在未来，高债务是毫无疑问的，那么其实在高债务下的金融稳定，不论对美联储还是各个国家央行的货币政策制定，其实都会带来很大的掣肘。这个是他认为在疫情之后可能会诱发的新一轮“次生灾害现象”。
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