本文利用大量隐含波动率的基础数据和插值法，编制人民币(6.5586, 0.0075, 0.11%)汇率市场情绪指数，分析情绪指数的信息含义，并在此基础上研究情绪指数与汇率风险定价之间的关系，发现8.11汇改后波动率不确定性的风险已体现在汇率定价中，人民币汇率形成机制更趋成熟，根据研究结论建议参考市场售汇和美元指数(92.2445, 0.1709, 0.19%)变动情况进一步完善隐含波动率报价。
风险定价是金融领域的基本问题之一，风险溢价也是资产超额收益的重要来源。随着中国外汇管理改革不断深化，除了支付手段外，外汇的投融资功能也得到强化，体现在资本项目可兑换水平较高、市场主体结售汇自主性较强等方面。由于外汇的资产配置功能不断凸显，因此可从“收益-风险”的角度来研究人民币汇率相关问题。人民币对美元外汇期权（以下简称外汇期权）的隐含波动率曲线蕴含波动率预期、风险偏好等丰富的市场信息，为人民币汇率的风险定价研究提供了重要切入点。本文结合笔者已有学术成果，分析隐含波动率曲线数据和人民币汇率风险定价的关系，并探讨其对于期权隐含波动率报价的启示。
一、利用外汇期权隐含波动率计算人民币汇率市场情绪指数
VIX指数是基于标准普尔股指期权的隐含波动率计算得出的。类似的，可以借鉴其中的原理方法计算人民币汇率市场情绪指数，其含义为风险中性下的汇率波动率预期。汇率市场情绪指数（月度化后）的平方为汇率隐含方差。经典文献证明，理论上隐含方差是某一时点的基于所有执行价的期权价格按照一定方法得到的积分值。实际测算时，积分值要根据其数学特性转化成离散化求和，并按照外币利率（类似于股票的红利现金流出）做出一定修正，具体公式见下：
由于非线性等因素，尽管从数学上看不完全是，但从经济金融学意义上看，可以粗略地将汇率隐含方差理解为各执行价下隐含波动率平方的加权平均。其中，ATM附近报价的“权重”最大，而越实值及越虚值报价的“权重”则越小。
delta按照0.05的间隔从0.05取值至0.95，即取值19个不同delta的隐含波动率报价，数据来自彭博，并经过71次三次样条插值，计算得出了汇率隐含方差。其中，三次样条插值法是用多段三次函数来拟合隐含波动率曲线，并按拟合后的曲线进行插值。而三次函数一阶、二阶连续可导，曲线平滑，具有良好的数学特性。由于运用了大量基础数据并进行了十分密集的插值，本文的计算方法较为严谨、精确。将隐含方差年化后再开方，可转化为人民币汇率市场情绪指数，代表每个月底对未来一个月的汇率波动率的预期。
计量结果表明，8.11汇改后人民币汇率情绪指数的绝对值和波动性均显著上升。汇率情绪指数与汇率实际波动情况并无稳定的关系。有时，汇率实际运行会对前期的汇率波动率预期有顺周期反应。如2018年8月的情绪指数为6.39%，是附近高点，之后的四季度人民币进入阶段性贬值；类似的情况还有2020年11月，情绪指数为7.3%，不过对应的是阶段性升值。有时，由于汇率具有较高弹性，升贬值压力释放后，情绪指数反而降低。如2019年5月的情绪指数为2.39%，是附近低点。当时人民币汇率“破7”，发挥了对内外部经济金融状况的自动调节作用，市场预期反而趋于平稳。
二、人民币汇率的风险定价分析
按照“收益-风险”的资产定价研究思路，风险因素可能体现在资产的超额收益中，作为对承担风险的补偿。资产价格的波动率风险是最常见的风险因素之一，笔者利用即期汇率的高频数据计算了人民币汇率的实际波动率（方差）。此外，波动率不确定性的风险也是人民币汇率的另一风险因素。比如，7.21汇改至8.11汇改前，根据“主动、渐进、可控”原则，整体上人民币对美元的升值速度比较平稳，市场对人民币汇率波动率的预期不易出现太大偏差（如年升值幅度为3%~5%），汇率波动率的不确定性较低。而8.11汇改后，人民币汇率的双向波动不断加大，波动率较之以往有了更大的不确定性。
隐含方差是基于风险中性定价得出的，风险中性投资者不需要因承担风险而获得风险补偿。那么，风险中性与实际风险偏好情况下的方差预期的差值就体现了对未来波动率不确定性的风险补偿。两者差值的金融专业术语叫做方差风险溢价，可以作为汇率波动不确定性风险的代理变量。方差风险溢价通常为正。这是因为，风险中性下的预期波动率对应的是无风险利率，而现实中风险厌恶下的实际波动率对应的是比无风险利率更高的收益率。一般而言，收益率越高，看涨期权价格越高；波动率越大，看涨期权价格越高。故风险中性下的预期波动率（方差）会高于风险厌恶下的实际波动率（方差）。在理性预期的假设下，方差风险溢价为汇率的隐含方差减去实际方差，实际方差和方差风险溢价之和正好等于隐含方差。因此，期权隐含波动率数据的信息中包括两种风险——汇率波动风险和汇率波动不确定性的风险。
通过一定的实证分析，笔者发现：第一，8.11汇改前实际方差和方差风险溢价均没有单独体现在人民币汇率的风险定价中，但隐含方差却纳入了人民币汇率定价。这说明当时人民币汇率波动的不确定性的确较小，方差风险溢价还没有单独成为风险来源，并且这一阶段，隐含方差对于未来的汇率具有一定预测功效。第二，8.11汇改后，双向波动市场环境下方差风险溢价体现在了人民币汇率风险定价中，说明波动率不确定性风险的重要性凸显，人民币汇率的市场化形成机制更为成熟。这与日元、瑞士法郎、英镑(1.3695, -0.0036, -0.26%)、德国马克（欧元(1.1895, -0.0018, -0.15%)推出之前）等货币的波动率风险溢价存在的国际经验一致。因此，以波动率不确定性的视角来对标世界主要货币，人民币汇率的市场化程度确实得到了有效提升。第三，8.11汇改前后，期权隐含波动率数据均以不同的形式体现在人民币汇率风险定价中，反映出我国外汇期权市场趋向成熟，发挥了价格发现的功能。
三、对隐含波动率报价的一些启示
综合以上分析，外汇市场参与者可以从两个角度来形成隐含波动率报价。一是根据人民币汇率情绪指数的影响因素来报出隐含波动率；二是预测未来汇率实际波动率，再根据汇率波动率风险溢价（人民币汇率情绪指数与实际波动率之差，经济学意义与方差风险溢价一致）的影响因素来报出波动率风险溢价，两者之和形成风险中性下的隐含波动率报价。为研究8.11汇改后人民币汇率情绪指数和汇率波动率风险溢价的影响因素，笔者考虑了如下变量：（1）经济基本面情况，包括中国PMI、美国制造业PMI、美国非制造业PMI；（2）国际收支情况，包括海关进出口顺差和短期资本流动（外汇占款增量-贸易顺差-FDI实际利用额）；（3）代客市场结售汇行为，可用银行代客结汇/收汇率和售汇/付汇率来衡量，前者指当期银行代客结汇与代客收汇之比，后者为当期银行代客售汇与代客付汇之比；（4）美元指数。
简单的实证分析发现：第一，仅售汇/付汇率对人民币汇率情绪指数有显著的影响，两者的关系为负。8.11汇改后，人民币出现了若干次的阶段性贬值，如2016年底至2017年初、2018年四季度、2019年5月人民币汇率就面临了三次“破7”压力，2019年8月更是实现了“破7”。售汇行为加剧会增大贬值压力，但传导到预期上，却是预期的汇率波动率收窄。这体现出了市场理性，认为汇率能够发挥自动调节作用，接下来的汇率走势会回归合理水平。换一个角度看，当人民币呈现一定的升值趋势时，售汇/付汇率增大会缓解升值压力，防止波动率预期进一步发散。不过人民币汇率情绪指数对结汇情况不敏感。此外，人民币汇率情绪指数还有常见的自回归特征。第二，仅美元指数变动绝对值对波动率风险溢价有显著的影响，两者的关系为正。美元汇率是全球宏观经济金融波动的“晴雨表”之一，被许多文献证明是货币超额收益的重要定价因子。本文也发现美元指数波动的外部因素的确会加大波动率不确定性的风险，进而影响人民币汇率的风险定价。因此短期内，近期的代客市场售汇情况和美元指数波动是报出人民币汇率情绪指数及波动率风险溢价的重要参考，而经济基本面、国际收支情况与它们的相关性却较弱。当然，基于某delta或执行价的隐含波动率报价，还要依照汇率变动方向（隐含波动率曲线形状）的预判等因素做出一定调整。人民币汇率情绪指数及波动率风险溢价的其他影响因素也有待进一步挖掘。
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Scores of unexploded World War II bombs discovered under children’s playground
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Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.
Local officials in the town of Wooler, Northumberland called in bomb disposal experts after workers involved in a planned overhaul of Scotts Play Park found unexploded ordnance, the parish council said in a statement sent to CNN on Monday.
Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.
The company told CNN that the bombs date from World War II.
According to the parish council, all of the bombs need to be found and removed before the park can be reopened. It said 174 devices had been found so far.
Cute baby animals bring visitors to zoos and aquariums. What happens when they grow up?
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One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.
Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.
Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.
But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.
It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.
“We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.
Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.
The real jackpot, though, is merchandise. Stuffed animals, T-shirts, fridge magnets, keychains, kids’ books and other branded products are a major way for zoos and aquariums to make money.
Look of the Week: Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl pants signal the return of flares
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This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.
And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.
While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.
But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.
Scores of unexploded World War II bombs discovered under children’s playground
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Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.
Local officials in the town of Wooler, Northumberland called in bomb disposal experts after workers involved in a planned overhaul of Scotts Play Park found unexploded ordnance, the parish council said in a statement sent to CNN on Monday.
Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.
The company told CNN that the bombs date from World War II.
According to the parish council, all of the bombs need to be found and removed before the park can be reopened. It said 174 devices had been found so far.
Look of the Week: Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl pants signal the return of flares
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This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.
And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.
While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.
But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.
Scores of unexploded World War II bombs discovered under children’s playground
<a href=https://t.me/Lucky_Jetteam>lucky jet bonus</a>
Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.
Local officials in the town of Wooler, Northumberland called in bomb disposal experts after workers involved in a planned overhaul of Scotts Play Park found unexploded ordnance, the parish council said in a statement sent to CNN on Monday.
Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.
The company told CNN that the bombs date from World War II.
According to the parish council, all of the bombs need to be found and removed before the park can be reopened. It said 174 devices had been found so far.
Cute baby animals bring visitors to zoos and aquariums. What happens when they grow up?
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One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.
Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.
Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.
But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.
It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.
“We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.
Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.
The real jackpot, though, is merchandise. Stuffed animals, T-shirts, fridge magnets, keychains, kids’ books and other branded products are a major way for zoos and aquariums to make money.
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How Nigeria’s biggest city became the world’s hottest winter party destination
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It’s a world of endless parties and sleepless nights. A relentless celebration that turns West Africa – and especially Nigeria’s largest city, Lagos – into one of the hottest destinations on the continent, if not the planet, right in the middle of winter.
Detty December is a magical time between December and early January when diaspora communities and tourists flock to Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa for an unforgettable experience filled with flavourful food, soulful African music and sunshine.
Beach parties, festivals and top-tier performances fuel the energy, while fashion takes center stage, with everyone dressing to impress.
Nearly two-thirds of Nigeria’s population is under 25, according to the United Nations Population Fund, making this one of the world’s youngest countries.
Internationally renowned Afrobeats performers and foreign artists make surprise appearances. DJs take to the streets, blasting powerful beats from consoles mounted atop bright yellow minibuses.
At times it’s all-consuming. Good luck getting hair salon appointments, affordable air tickets or navigating Lagos’ already notorious traffic when the party crowds are in town.
Detty December (“detty” is a playful corruption of “dirty”) is a triumphant celebration of culture, music and good vibes that has evolved in recent years during the traditional holidays influx of diaspora returnees, which heightened in 2018 when Ghana ran a launched a successful “Year of Return” campaign actively encouraging people to visit their ancestral homelands.
It’s gathered pace over the past five years, gaining an international reputation, as IJGBs (“I Just Got Backs”) and their friends arrive in batches, eager to unwind and blow off steam after the fast-paced, hard-working year they’ve had overseas.
For many in the vast Nigerian diaspora, it is a deeply personal homecoming, a chance to reconnect with their heritage, traditions and families while immersing themselves in the lively energy of Nigerian life.
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Now that it’s all over and the Ohio State Buckeyes are the college football national champions, it can be definitively said: expanding the College Football Playoff worked.
The grand experiment to allow more teams to play for the national championship wasn’t perfect, but it ended up where it was supposed to: a worthy national champion with exciting, close games in the later rounds when the best teams faced one another. It gave us awesome scenes on campuses around the nation, created new legends and showed how a sport so steeped in tradition can evolve when faced with new demands from its fans and business partners.
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The committee picked the right teams, even if some games were blowouts
Before the games kicked off in December, much of the focus was put on the inclusion of Southern Methodist University (SMU) and Indiana University – two teams that won a bunch of games but didn’t have the brand recognition of schools like Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss.
Here’s what else those teams had that SMU and Indiana didn’t: three losses.
The Hoosiers lost only once in the regular season – to eventual national champion Ohio State. The Mustangs had lost twice, once to Brigham Young University and again in the ACC championship game to Clemson.
In the first year of the expanded, 12-team playoff, could the committee really leave out a major conference team with 11 wins and punish another one for playing for a conference championship while other teams sat at home? Warde Manuel, the University of Michigan athletic director who served as chair of the committee, said they could not.
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By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
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‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
“I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.
With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.
“You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”
On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.
“It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
‘I’ve got something special here’
Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.
Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.
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Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
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Об игре
Lucky Jet — это не просто игра, а захватывающее приключение, в котором каждый момент может стать решающим! Эта краш-игра бросает вызов вашим инстинктам и способности быстро принимать решения. В основе игры — динамичная механика, где игроки ставят на рост коэффициента, но задача не в том, чтобы ждать до последнего, а вовремя вывести свой выигрыш, прежде чем персонаж взлетит слишком высоко и случится крах.
Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.
Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.
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Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
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Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
Кэшбэк до 10%
Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!
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Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:
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Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!
‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
<a href=https://kra27c.cc>kraken tor</a>
By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
“I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.
With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.
“You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”
On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.
“It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
‘I’ve got something special here’
Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.
Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.
Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
New York
CNN
—
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Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.
But over a week into his presidency, Trump has yet to enact any new tariffs.
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That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”
Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
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Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
New York
CNN
—
<a href=https://blackspfgh3bi6im374fgl54qliir6to37txpkkd6ucfiu7whfy2odid.biz>блэкспрут сайт</a>
Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.
But over a week into his presidency, Trump has yet to enact any new tariffs.
<a href=https://blst.gl>блэк спрут официальный сайт</a>
That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
<a href=https://blackspfgh3bi6im374fgl54qliir6to37txpkkd6ucfiu7whfy2odid.biz>сайт спрут</a>
Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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https://bsprut.cc
The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”
Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
<a href=https://bs2web.de>blackspfgh3bi6im374fgl54qliir6to37txpkkd6ucfiu7whfy2odid.onion</a>
A federal judge on Tuesday afternoon temporarily blocked part of the Trump administration’s plans to freeze all federal aid, a policy that unleashed confusion and worry from charities and educators even as the White House said it was not as sweeping an order as it appeared.
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The short-term pause issued by US District Judge Loren L. AliKhan prevents the administration from carrying through with its plans to freeze funding for “open awards” already granted by the federal government through at least 5 p.m. ET Monday, February 3.
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The judge’s administrative stay is “a way of preserving the status quo” while she considers the challenge brought by a group of non-profits to the White House plans, AliKhan said.
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“The government doesn’t know the full scope of the programs that are going to be subject to the pause,” AliKhan said after pressing an attorney for the Justice Department on what programs the freeze would apply to. AliKhan is expected to consider a longer-term pause on the policy early next week.
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The White House budget office had ordered the pause on federal grants and loans, according to an internal memorandum sent Monday.
Federal agencies “must temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance,” White House Office of Management and Budget acting director Matthew Vaeth said in the memorandum, a copy of which was obtained by CNN, citing administration priorities listed in past executive orders.
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‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
<a href=https://kra27c.cc>kraken ссылка</a>
By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
“I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.
With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.
“You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”
On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.
“It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
‘I’ve got something special here’
Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.
Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.