外汇期权市场与人民币汇率的风险定价

2021年04月09日 10317点热度 0人点赞 2,278条评论

外汇期权市场与人民币汇率的风险定价

本文利用大量隐含波动率的基础数据和插值法,编制人民币(6.55860.00750.11%)汇率市场情绪指数,分析情绪指数的信息含义,并在此基础上研究情绪指数与汇率风险定价之间的关系,发现8.11汇改后波动率不确定性的风险已体现在汇率定价中,人民币汇率形成机制更趋成熟,根据研究结论建议参考市场售汇和美元指数(92.24450.17090.19%)变动情况进一步完善隐含波动率报价。

风险定价是金融领域的基本问题之一,风险溢价也是资产超额收益的重要来源。随着中国外汇管理改革不断深化,除了支付手段外,外汇的投融资功能也得到强化,体现在资本项目可兑换水平较高、市场主体结售汇自主性较强等方面。由于外汇的资产配置功能不断凸显,因此可从“收益-风险”的角度来研究人民币汇率相关问题。人民币对美元外汇期权(以下简称外汇期权)的隐含波动率曲线蕴含波动率预期、风险偏好等丰富的市场信息,为人民币汇率的风险定价研究提供了重要切入点。本文结合笔者已有学术成果,分析隐含波动率曲线数据和人民币汇率风险定价的关系,并探讨其对于期权隐含波动率报价的启示。

一、利用外汇期权隐含波动率计算人民币汇率市场情绪指数

VIX指数是基于标准普尔股指期权的隐含波动率计算得出的。类似的,可以借鉴其中的原理方法计算人民币汇率市场情绪指数,其含义为风险中性下的汇率波动率预期。汇率市场情绪指数(月度化后)的平方为汇率隐含方差。经典文献证明,理论上隐含方差是某一时点的基于所有执行价的期权价格按照一定方法得到的积分值。实际测算时,积分值要根据其数学特性转化成离散化求和,并按照外币利率(类似于股票的红利现金流出)做出一定修正,具体公式见下:

外汇期权市场与人民币汇率的风险定价
外汇期权市场与人民币汇率的风险定价

由于非线性等因素,尽管从数学上看不完全是,但从经济金融学意义上看,可以粗略地将汇率隐含方差理解为各执行价下隐含波动率平方的加权平均。其中,ATM附近报价的“权重”最大,而越实值及越虚值报价的“权重”则越小。

delta按照0.05的间隔从0.05取值至0.95,即取值19个不同delta的隐含波动率报价,数据来自彭博,并经过71次三次样条插值,计算得出了汇率隐含方差。其中,三次样条插值法是用多段三次函数来拟合隐含波动率曲线,并按拟合后的曲线进行插值。而三次函数一阶、二阶连续可导,曲线平滑,具有良好的数学特性。由于运用了大量基础数据并进行了十分密集的插值,本文的计算方法较为严谨、精确。将隐含方差年化后再开方,可转化为人民币汇率市场情绪指数,代表每个月底对未来一个月的汇率波动率的预期。

计量结果表明,8.11汇改后人民币汇率情绪指数的绝对值和波动性均显著上升。汇率情绪指数与汇率实际波动情况并无稳定的关系。有时,汇率实际运行会对前期的汇率波动率预期有顺周期反应。如2018年8月的情绪指数为6.39%,是附近高点,之后的四季度人民币进入阶段性贬值;类似的情况还有2020年11月,情绪指数为7.3%,不过对应的是阶段性升值。有时,由于汇率具有较高弹性,升贬值压力释放后,情绪指数反而降低。如2019年5月的情绪指数为2.39%,是附近低点。当时人民币汇率“破7”,发挥了对内外部经济金融状况的自动调节作用,市场预期反而趋于平稳。

二、人民币汇率的风险定价分析

按照“收益-风险”的资产定价研究思路,风险因素可能体现在资产的超额收益中,作为对承担风险的补偿。资产价格的波动率风险是最常见的风险因素之一,笔者利用即期汇率的高频数据计算了人民币汇率的实际波动率(方差)。此外,波动率不确定性的风险也是人民币汇率的另一风险因素。比如,7.21汇改至8.11汇改前,根据“主动、渐进、可控”原则,整体上人民币对美元的升值速度比较平稳,市场对人民币汇率波动率的预期不易出现太大偏差(如年升值幅度为3%~5%),汇率波动率的不确定性较低。而8.11汇改后,人民币汇率的双向波动不断加大,波动率较之以往有了更大的不确定性。

隐含方差是基于风险中性定价得出的,风险中性投资者不需要因承担风险而获得风险补偿。那么,风险中性与实际风险偏好情况下的方差预期的差值就体现了对未来波动率不确定性的风险补偿。两者差值的金融专业术语叫做方差风险溢价,可以作为汇率波动不确定性风险的代理变量。方差风险溢价通常为正。这是因为,风险中性下的预期波动率对应的是无风险利率,而现实中风险厌恶下的实际波动率对应的是比无风险利率更高的收益率。一般而言,收益率越高,看涨期权价格越高;波动率越大,看涨期权价格越高。故风险中性下的预期波动率(方差)会高于风险厌恶下的实际波动率(方差)。在理性预期的假设下,方差风险溢价为汇率的隐含方差减去实际方差,实际方差和方差风险溢价之和正好等于隐含方差。因此,期权隐含波动率数据的信息中包括两种风险——汇率波动风险和汇率波动不确定性的风险。

通过一定的实证分析,笔者发现:第一,8.11汇改前实际方差和方差风险溢价均没有单独体现在人民币汇率的风险定价中,但隐含方差却纳入了人民币汇率定价。这说明当时人民币汇率波动的不确定性的确较小,方差风险溢价还没有单独成为风险来源,并且这一阶段,隐含方差对于未来的汇率具有一定预测功效。第二,8.11汇改后,双向波动市场环境下方差风险溢价体现在了人民币汇率风险定价中,说明波动率不确定性风险的重要性凸显,人民币汇率的市场化形成机制更为成熟。这与日元、瑞士法郎、英镑(1.3695-0.0036-0.26%)、德国马克(欧元(1.1895-0.0018-0.15%)推出之前)等货币的波动率风险溢价存在的国际经验一致。因此,以波动率不确定性的视角来对标世界主要货币,人民币汇率的市场化程度确实得到了有效提升。第三,8.11汇改前后,期权隐含波动率数据均以不同的形式体现在人民币汇率风险定价中,反映出我国外汇期权市场趋向成熟,发挥了价格发现的功能。

三、对隐含波动率报价的一些启示

综合以上分析,外汇市场参与者可以从两个角度来形成隐含波动率报价。一是根据人民币汇率情绪指数的影响因素来报出隐含波动率;二是预测未来汇率实际波动率,再根据汇率波动率风险溢价(人民币汇率情绪指数与实际波动率之差,经济学意义与方差风险溢价一致)的影响因素来报出波动率风险溢价,两者之和形成风险中性下的隐含波动率报价。为研究8.11汇改后人民币汇率情绪指数和汇率波动率风险溢价的影响因素,笔者考虑了如下变量:(1)经济基本面情况,包括中国PMI、美国制造业PMI、美国非制造业PMI;(2)国际收支情况,包括海关进出口顺差和短期资本流动(外汇占款增量-贸易顺差-FDI实际利用额);(3)代客市场结售汇行为,可用银行代客结汇/收汇率和售汇/付汇率来衡量,前者指当期银行代客结汇与代客收汇之比,后者为当期银行代客售汇与代客付汇之比;(4)美元指数。

简单的实证分析发现:第一,仅售汇/付汇率对人民币汇率情绪指数有显著的影响,两者的关系为负。8.11汇改后,人民币出现了若干次的阶段性贬值,如2016年底至2017年初、2018年四季度、2019年5月人民币汇率就面临了三次“破7”压力,2019年8月更是实现了“破7”。售汇行为加剧会增大贬值压力,但传导到预期上,却是预期的汇率波动率收窄。这体现出了市场理性,认为汇率能够发挥自动调节作用,接下来的汇率走势会回归合理水平。换一个角度看,当人民币呈现一定的升值趋势时,售汇/付汇率增大会缓解升值压力,防止波动率预期进一步发散。不过人民币汇率情绪指数对结汇情况不敏感。此外,人民币汇率情绪指数还有常见的自回归特征。第二,仅美元指数变动绝对值对波动率风险溢价有显著的影响,两者的关系为正。美元汇率是全球宏观经济金融波动的“晴雨表”之一,被许多文献证明是货币超额收益的重要定价因子。本文也发现美元指数波动的外部因素的确会加大波动率不确定性的风险,进而影响人民币汇率的风险定价。因此短期内,近期的代客市场售汇情况和美元指数波动是报出人民币汇率情绪指数及波动率风险溢价的重要参考,而经济基本面、国际收支情况与它们的相关性却较弱。当然,基于某delta或执行价的隐含波动率报价,还要依照汇率变动方向(隐含波动率曲线形状)的预判等因素做出一定调整。人民币汇率情绪指数及波动率风险溢价的其他影响因素也有待进一步挖掘。

 

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    The Stargate Finance Token is an integral part of the blockchain ecosystem, especially for those involved in decentralized finance (DeFi). As a bridge to seamless blockchain transactions, it plays a crucial role in enhancing interoperability across different networks.

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    2025年1月12日
  • FrankViast

    Welcome to PancakeSwap: A Beginner's Guide
    PancakeSwap is a decentralized exchange platform on the Binance Smart Chain, designed for swapping BEP-20 tokens. With its vibrant ecosystem, ease of use, and low transaction fees, it's become a popular choice among crypto enthusiasts.
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    In the rapidly evolving world of decentralized finance (DeFi), Velodrome Finance emerges as a robust platform for enthusiasts looking to enhance their crypto yield returns. This guide will walk you through the essentials of Velodrome Finance and how you can benefit from its features.
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    WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on Friday.
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    Georgieva said the U.S. economy was doing "quite a bit better" than expected, although there was high uncertainty around the trade policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump that was adding to headwinds facing the global economy and driving long-term interest rates higher.
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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

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    2025年1月13日
  • EdwardVag

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    An executive order designed to speed up the rebuilding of lost homes in LA has been put in place by California Governor Gavin Newsom.
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    The order suspends Ceqa review and the California Coastal Act, which work to minimise the environmental impact of proposed building projects, as well as suspending some permits in order to make rebuilding quicker and more affordable.

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  • Victorpaura

    Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages during the first phase of an emerging ceasefire agreement being finalized by negotiators in Doha, two Israeli officials said, the first positive sign in months that a truce in the Israel-Hamas war may be in sight.
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    Israel believes that most of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal are alive, a senior Israeli official told reporters on Monday, but the bodies of dead captives will also likely be among those released. The first phase would take place over an initial 42-day ceasefire.

    The senior Israeli official said the parties appear to be on the verge of an agreement and that Israel is prepared to immediately implement the deal once it has been inked.

    US President Joe Biden expressed similar optimism in a speech Monday focused on foreign policy, saying the United States was “pressing hard to close this.”

    “The deal we have structured would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel, and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started. They have been through hell,” Biden said

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    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

    The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.

    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

    2025年1月15日
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    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
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    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
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    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
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    After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks

    Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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    Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol

    Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"

    With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states

    Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''

    2025年1月17日
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    2025年1月18日
  • RobertoLon

    How Austrian climber Babsi Zangerl completed a ‘hard to believe’ historic ascent of El Capitan
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    On a vertical rockface like El Capitan, the soaring slab of granite in California’s Yosemite National Park, perfection is an elusive, almost impossible goal for professional climbers.

    It can take years of experience to master a route to the top of the 3,000-foot wall, such is its difficulty and magnitude. That’s precisely why Babsi Zangerl’s recent “flash” of El Cap is so unique and impressive.

    In climbing, to “flash” a route is to reach the top on the first attempt without any falls – a feat never before achieved on El Cap prior to Zangerl’s maiden summit of Freerider last month. From bottom to top, she was faultless.

    “It was hard to believe,” the Austrian climber tells CNN Sport. “I was so surprised that this just happened and that I didn’t fall … I could have fallen so many times on that climb.”
    Freerider is a popular route up El Capitan, the same one taken by Alex Honnold when he climbed the rockface without ropes or harnesses in the Oscar-winning documentary “Free Solo.”

    Zangerl has lots of experience climbing on El Cap and around Yosemite but had never previously attempted the 30-plus pitches up Freerider. The challenging Monster Offwidth section – a 60-meter-long (almost 197 feet) crack around halfway through the climb – had put her off, and flashing the route, she says, wasn’t a long-standing target for her.

    “It was more that we just could try to go flash and see how far we can get,” Zangerl explains. “But the expectations were really low, so it was not a big goal from the beginning … There are some really slabby pitches where you don’t have hand holds, so you’re mostly standing on the bad feet, and you always can slip off.

    “The chance was really low – I didn’t have the feeling that we have a big chance on the flash.”

    It was only once she had conquered the Boulder Problem – perhaps the hardest, most treacherous part of the climb with only razor-thin holds on which to grip – that the flash seemed possible.

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    2025年1月18日
  • Michaeldag

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    Ранее судимый по «наркотической» статье блогер Андрей Алистаров позиционирует себя Робин Гудом, борющимся с теми, кто «обманул людей», – но в действительности он работает в интересах пирамидчиков, в том числе украинских, спонсирующих ВСУ, продвигает через свой канал «Железная ставка» онлайн-казино и черный криптообмен/фишинговый криптообман, отмывает наркодоходы за счет сделок с недвижимостью в Дубае.
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    Уроженец Калуги Алистаров отсидел четыре года в лагере – за продажу наркотиков детям.

    Там он связался с уголовными авторитетами и, выйдя из тюрьмы, продолжил участвовать в криминальном бизнесе по распространению наркотиков и отмыванию наркодоходов от них с помощью риелторского бизнеса, который Алистаров создал совместно с партнерами из российского преступного сообщества в России и Эмиратах.
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    Он начинался как канал о «правильных» ставках в казино и не сменил название – потому что маркетинговая задача осталась прежней: расчищать поле для «хороших», по «экспертному» мнению Алистарова (то есть заплативших ему), мошенников.

    Обычно Алистаров начинает с попытки вымогательства – представляет жертве компромат и предлагает заплатить. Если жертва отказывается, в ход идут травля и насилие.
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    До этого Алистаров снял 12 роликов, где подсвечивал адрес этого предпринимателя, публиковал незаконно полученную информацию о его близких и его бизнесах в ОАЭ. Безо всякого стеснения использовал подглядывание, подслушивание, незаконное проникновение, вмешательство в частную жизнь – все то, что в Эмиратах, где строго соблюдается неприкосновенность имущества и жизни инвесторов, является тяжким уголовным преступлением.

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    Алистаров рассказывал, что заявил на предпринимателя в Интерпол и правоохранительные органы ОАЭ – якобы он помогает правоохранительным органам. Но это почему-то не привело к аресту предпринимателя – может быть, потому, что полиция ОАЭ не видит криминала в его деятельности?

    2025年1月18日
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    Bonding on a stalled train
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    In 1990, Derek Barclay was 21 and studying to become a construction engineer. He’d saved up money from an unglamorous summer job building a prison to buy an Interrail pass.

    “Then, I dumped my bag at my mum’s house and said, ‘I’m off to Europe.’ She was horrified,” Derek tells CNN Travel today.

    “The idea was to go from Casablanca to Istanbul. But I never went to either. Along the way I met Nina and I got distracted …”

    While Nina and Derek formally met for the first time on the stalled train in Belgrade, Derek had first spotted Nina on a busy station platform, some hours earlier, in Budapest.

    When he spotted her sitting on a bench, smiling and laughing with Loa, Derek was struck by Nina right away. For a moment, he imagined getting to know her, what she might be like. Where she might be from, where she might be going.

    But then Derek had ended up on a different train. He’d met and got chatting to Steve the Englishman and Paul the Irishman. The trio had shared a couple of beers, fallen asleep, and woken, with a start, in Belgrade, to a suddenly-empty carriage. That’s when they panicked.

    “We woke up, and just ran down the railway line — because we’re just about to miss this train to Athens — we jumped on the train as it was pulling away, and then it stopped,” Derek tells CNN Travel today. “Apparently that’s what they had to do to get the strike official.”

    When Derek, Steve and Paul opened the door to Nina’s carriage, Derek didn’t immediately take Nina in, focusing instead on the near-empty compartment.

    “Two of them in there, this carriage for eight, they’d spread stuff everywhere. It was obvious it was a ruse to try and get people not to go in. And we thought, ‘We’re not having any of that,’” says Derek, laughing. “So we squeezed in, and that was that.”

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    Carrie Underwood slated to perform at Trump’s inauguration
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    Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.

    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

    The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.

    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

    2025年1月19日
  • GreggJoxia

    A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
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    Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?

    The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.

    Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.

    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
    The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.

    We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.

    In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.

    2025年1月19日
  • Alfonsoket

    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    2025年1月20日
  • ThomasprOna

    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    2025年1月20日
  • AlfredUrigh

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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    2025年1月20日
  • IrwinPlept

    Jan 12 (Reuters) - South Korea's impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, will not attend the first hearing of the trial to determine whether he is removed him from office or reinstated, due to concerns about his safety, Yonhap News reported on Sunday, citing his lawyer.
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    “The officials in the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) and the police are trying to execute illegal and invalid arrest warrants through illegal methods, raising concerns about personal safety and mishaps,” lawyer Yoon Kab-keun was quoted as saying.
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    2025年1月20日