本文利用大量隐含波动率的基础数据和插值法，编制人民币(6.5586, 0.0075, 0.11%)汇率市场情绪指数，分析情绪指数的信息含义，并在此基础上研究情绪指数与汇率风险定价之间的关系，发现8.11汇改后波动率不确定性的风险已体现在汇率定价中，人民币汇率形成机制更趋成熟，根据研究结论建议参考市场售汇和美元指数(92.2445, 0.1709, 0.19%)变动情况进一步完善隐含波动率报价。
风险定价是金融领域的基本问题之一，风险溢价也是资产超额收益的重要来源。随着中国外汇管理改革不断深化，除了支付手段外，外汇的投融资功能也得到强化，体现在资本项目可兑换水平较高、市场主体结售汇自主性较强等方面。由于外汇的资产配置功能不断凸显，因此可从“收益-风险”的角度来研究人民币汇率相关问题。人民币对美元外汇期权（以下简称外汇期权）的隐含波动率曲线蕴含波动率预期、风险偏好等丰富的市场信息，为人民币汇率的风险定价研究提供了重要切入点。本文结合笔者已有学术成果，分析隐含波动率曲线数据和人民币汇率风险定价的关系，并探讨其对于期权隐含波动率报价的启示。
一、利用外汇期权隐含波动率计算人民币汇率市场情绪指数
VIX指数是基于标准普尔股指期权的隐含波动率计算得出的。类似的，可以借鉴其中的原理方法计算人民币汇率市场情绪指数，其含义为风险中性下的汇率波动率预期。汇率市场情绪指数（月度化后）的平方为汇率隐含方差。经典文献证明，理论上隐含方差是某一时点的基于所有执行价的期权价格按照一定方法得到的积分值。实际测算时，积分值要根据其数学特性转化成离散化求和，并按照外币利率（类似于股票的红利现金流出）做出一定修正，具体公式见下：
由于非线性等因素，尽管从数学上看不完全是，但从经济金融学意义上看，可以粗略地将汇率隐含方差理解为各执行价下隐含波动率平方的加权平均。其中，ATM附近报价的“权重”最大，而越实值及越虚值报价的“权重”则越小。
delta按照0.05的间隔从0.05取值至0.95，即取值19个不同delta的隐含波动率报价，数据来自彭博，并经过71次三次样条插值，计算得出了汇率隐含方差。其中，三次样条插值法是用多段三次函数来拟合隐含波动率曲线，并按拟合后的曲线进行插值。而三次函数一阶、二阶连续可导，曲线平滑，具有良好的数学特性。由于运用了大量基础数据并进行了十分密集的插值，本文的计算方法较为严谨、精确。将隐含方差年化后再开方，可转化为人民币汇率市场情绪指数，代表每个月底对未来一个月的汇率波动率的预期。
计量结果表明，8.11汇改后人民币汇率情绪指数的绝对值和波动性均显著上升。汇率情绪指数与汇率实际波动情况并无稳定的关系。有时，汇率实际运行会对前期的汇率波动率预期有顺周期反应。如2018年8月的情绪指数为6.39%，是附近高点，之后的四季度人民币进入阶段性贬值；类似的情况还有2020年11月，情绪指数为7.3%，不过对应的是阶段性升值。有时，由于汇率具有较高弹性，升贬值压力释放后，情绪指数反而降低。如2019年5月的情绪指数为2.39%，是附近低点。当时人民币汇率“破7”，发挥了对内外部经济金融状况的自动调节作用，市场预期反而趋于平稳。
二、人民币汇率的风险定价分析
按照“收益-风险”的资产定价研究思路，风险因素可能体现在资产的超额收益中，作为对承担风险的补偿。资产价格的波动率风险是最常见的风险因素之一，笔者利用即期汇率的高频数据计算了人民币汇率的实际波动率（方差）。此外，波动率不确定性的风险也是人民币汇率的另一风险因素。比如，7.21汇改至8.11汇改前，根据“主动、渐进、可控”原则，整体上人民币对美元的升值速度比较平稳，市场对人民币汇率波动率的预期不易出现太大偏差（如年升值幅度为3%~5%），汇率波动率的不确定性较低。而8.11汇改后，人民币汇率的双向波动不断加大，波动率较之以往有了更大的不确定性。
隐含方差是基于风险中性定价得出的，风险中性投资者不需要因承担风险而获得风险补偿。那么，风险中性与实际风险偏好情况下的方差预期的差值就体现了对未来波动率不确定性的风险补偿。两者差值的金融专业术语叫做方差风险溢价，可以作为汇率波动不确定性风险的代理变量。方差风险溢价通常为正。这是因为，风险中性下的预期波动率对应的是无风险利率，而现实中风险厌恶下的实际波动率对应的是比无风险利率更高的收益率。一般而言，收益率越高，看涨期权价格越高；波动率越大，看涨期权价格越高。故风险中性下的预期波动率（方差）会高于风险厌恶下的实际波动率（方差）。在理性预期的假设下，方差风险溢价为汇率的隐含方差减去实际方差，实际方差和方差风险溢价之和正好等于隐含方差。因此，期权隐含波动率数据的信息中包括两种风险——汇率波动风险和汇率波动不确定性的风险。
通过一定的实证分析，笔者发现：第一，8.11汇改前实际方差和方差风险溢价均没有单独体现在人民币汇率的风险定价中，但隐含方差却纳入了人民币汇率定价。这说明当时人民币汇率波动的不确定性的确较小，方差风险溢价还没有单独成为风险来源，并且这一阶段，隐含方差对于未来的汇率具有一定预测功效。第二，8.11汇改后，双向波动市场环境下方差风险溢价体现在了人民币汇率风险定价中，说明波动率不确定性风险的重要性凸显，人民币汇率的市场化形成机制更为成熟。这与日元、瑞士法郎、英镑(1.3695, -0.0036, -0.26%)、德国马克（欧元(1.1895, -0.0018, -0.15%)推出之前）等货币的波动率风险溢价存在的国际经验一致。因此，以波动率不确定性的视角来对标世界主要货币，人民币汇率的市场化程度确实得到了有效提升。第三，8.11汇改前后，期权隐含波动率数据均以不同的形式体现在人民币汇率风险定价中，反映出我国外汇期权市场趋向成熟，发挥了价格发现的功能。
三、对隐含波动率报价的一些启示
综合以上分析，外汇市场参与者可以从两个角度来形成隐含波动率报价。一是根据人民币汇率情绪指数的影响因素来报出隐含波动率；二是预测未来汇率实际波动率，再根据汇率波动率风险溢价（人民币汇率情绪指数与实际波动率之差，经济学意义与方差风险溢价一致）的影响因素来报出波动率风险溢价，两者之和形成风险中性下的隐含波动率报价。为研究8.11汇改后人民币汇率情绪指数和汇率波动率风险溢价的影响因素，笔者考虑了如下变量：（1）经济基本面情况，包括中国PMI、美国制造业PMI、美国非制造业PMI；（2）国际收支情况，包括海关进出口顺差和短期资本流动（外汇占款增量-贸易顺差-FDI实际利用额）；（3）代客市场结售汇行为，可用银行代客结汇/收汇率和售汇/付汇率来衡量，前者指当期银行代客结汇与代客收汇之比，后者为当期银行代客售汇与代客付汇之比；（4）美元指数。
简单的实证分析发现：第一，仅售汇/付汇率对人民币汇率情绪指数有显著的影响，两者的关系为负。8.11汇改后，人民币出现了若干次的阶段性贬值，如2016年底至2017年初、2018年四季度、2019年5月人民币汇率就面临了三次“破7”压力，2019年8月更是实现了“破7”。售汇行为加剧会增大贬值压力，但传导到预期上，却是预期的汇率波动率收窄。这体现出了市场理性，认为汇率能够发挥自动调节作用，接下来的汇率走势会回归合理水平。换一个角度看，当人民币呈现一定的升值趋势时，售汇/付汇率增大会缓解升值压力，防止波动率预期进一步发散。不过人民币汇率情绪指数对结汇情况不敏感。此外，人民币汇率情绪指数还有常见的自回归特征。第二，仅美元指数变动绝对值对波动率风险溢价有显著的影响，两者的关系为正。美元汇率是全球宏观经济金融波动的“晴雨表”之一，被许多文献证明是货币超额收益的重要定价因子。本文也发现美元指数波动的外部因素的确会加大波动率不确定性的风险，进而影响人民币汇率的风险定价。因此短期内，近期的代客市场售汇情况和美元指数波动是报出人民币汇率情绪指数及波动率风险溢价的重要参考，而经济基本面、国际收支情况与它们的相关性却较弱。当然，基于某delta或执行价的隐含波动率报价，还要依照汇率变动方向（隐含波动率曲线形状）的预判等因素做出一定调整。人民币汇率情绪指数及波动率风险溢价的其他影响因素也有待进一步挖掘。
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National Park calls out ‘world changing’ impact of dropped Cheetos bag
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Plain water is the only thing visitors are allowed to consume inside the huge cavern at Carlsbad Caverns National Park in New Mexico. Cheetos are a no-go, and the recent park visitor who dropped a bag full of them created a “huge impact” on the cave’s ecosystem, the park said Friday in a Facebook post.
“At the scale of human perspective, a spilled snack bag may seem trivial, but to the life of the cave it can be world changing,” the park said in its post about the garbage found off-trail in the Big Room.
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“The processed corn, softened by the humidity of the cave, formed the perfect environment to host microbial life and fungi. Cave crickets, mites, spiders and flies soon organize into a temporary food web, dispersing the nutrients to the surrounding cave and formations. Molds spread higher up the nearby surfaces, fruit, die and stink. And the cycle continues.”
The park said rangers spent 20 minutes carefully removing molds and foreign debris from surfaces inside the cave, noting that while some members of the ecosystem that rose from the snacks were cave-dwellers “many of the microbial life and molds are not.”
The post called that particular impact on the cave “completely avoidable,” contrasting it with the hard-to-prevent fine trails of lint left by each visitor.
“Great or small we all leave an impact wherever we go. Let us all leave the world a better place than we found it,” the post urged park goers.
The park’s website says that eating and drinking anything other than plain water attracts animals into the cavern.
Carlsbad Caverns followed up its post about the Cheetos bag with a post about the “leave no trace” principle of disposing of waste properly.
“Contrary to popular belief, the cave is NOT a big trash can,” the post said, yet rangers pick up waste left behind every day.
“Sometimes this can be a gum wrapper or a tissue, other times it can unfortunately mean human waste, spit, or chewing tobacco.” Visitors are asked to make sure they don’t leave trash in the cavern and to use designated restrooms.
Potential conflicts of interest: None reported.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
“You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
“The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”
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At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
“You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
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At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
“You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
“The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”
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Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
“You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
“The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”
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At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
“You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
“The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”
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The wrecks of explosives-laden Nazi ships sunk in the Danube River during World War II have emerged near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo, after a drought in July and August that saw the river’s water level drop.
Four vessels dating from before 1950 have also come to light in Hungary’s Danube-Drava National Park near Mohacs, where the Danube’s water level stood at only 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) on Tuesday, the lingering effect of severe heat waves and persistent drought in July and August.
The vessels revealed in Prahovo were among hundreds scuttled along the Danube by Nazi Germany’s Black Sea fleet in 1944 as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces, destroying the ships themselves. The wrecks can hamper river traffic during low water levels.
Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still have turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others lie mostly submerged under sandbanks.
Endre Sztellik, a guard at the Danube-Drava national park, said of one of the ships, “we still don’t know what this is exactly. What is visible and an unfortunate fact is that the wreck is diminishing as people are interested in it and parts of it are going missing.”
The Danube stood at 1.17 meters (3.8 feet) in Budapest on Tuesday, which compares with an all-time record low of around 0.4 meters (1.3 feet) registered in October 2018. During floods, the Danube rises well above 6 meters (19.7 feet).
“Eastern Europe is experiencing critical drought conditions that are affecting crops and vegetation,” the European climate service Copernicus said on its website in its latest drought report, published earlier this month.
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Singing about the perils of fame, being dragged out from beneath a fallen chandelier then bleeding to death in front of a roomful of celebrities: Lady Gaga was not shy about making her debut at the MTV Video Music Awards.
The year was 2009 — many will remember it as the year rapper Ye (formerly Kanye West) stage-crashed 19-year-old Taylor Swift and suggested her award for Best Female Video should have gone to Beyonce instead. But never one to be overshadowed, Lady Gaga, then 23, made some pop culture history of her own that night.
Her rendition of “Paparazzi” — lamenting both unrequited love and the sinister effects of hounding tabloids — has gone down in the mists of Gaga legend; not least because a lack of high-quality footage means fans must resort to watching grainy screen-recorded versions circulated on social media.
Over the limited number of pixels, Gaga can be seen at the start of the performance in an all-white ensemble: a bejeweled, asymmetric lace bodysuit and matching cape, thigh-high boots, a feathered Keko Hainswheeler headpiece and strings of glinting pearls. As she staggered back from her piano at the song’s crescendo, however, an audible gasp swept the room as thick blood suddenly appeared to be pouring from her abdomen.
“I’m your biggest fan, I’ll follow you until you love me,” Gaga wailed desperately, her once-pristine outfit now daubed in scarlet. She ended the number suspended above the stage, ‘dead,’ as more blood dripped from her eyes.
“(It) gives me chills every time I watch it,” Olivia Rodrigo told MTV in 2021. “I think Lady Gaga is the best performer of our generation.” The “Drivers License” singer appeared to take notes. At this year’s Grammy Awards, she began to ‘bleed’ from clenched fists while performing her hit “vampire,” spreading fake blood across her arms and neck as the song progressed.
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It wasn’t the rich orchestra of high pitches and rumbles you might expect with an earthquake, but more of a monotonous hum, he told CNN. Earthquake signals tend to last for minutes; this one lasted for nine days.
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Seismologists traced the signal to eastern Greenland, but couldn’t pin down a specific location. So they contacted colleagues in Denmark, who had received reports of a landslide-triggered tsunami in a remote part of the region called Dickson Fjord.
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Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.
This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.
Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.
“It’s inspiring to be recognized for this 30 years into my career, especially in Naples where pizza originated,” Mangieri said in an email to CNN Travel on Thursday.
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Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.
Italy still managed to dominate the overall list with 41 eateries while the United States got a total of 15 places recognized. And Naples managed to best New York with five entries on the list, including a tie for the No. 2 spot with Diego Vigtaliano Pizzeria.
Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three – were represented on the list.
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