本文利用大量隐含波动率的基础数据和插值法，编制人民币(6.5586, 0.0075, 0.11%)汇率市场情绪指数，分析情绪指数的信息含义，并在此基础上研究情绪指数与汇率风险定价之间的关系，发现8.11汇改后波动率不确定性的风险已体现在汇率定价中，人民币汇率形成机制更趋成熟，根据研究结论建议参考市场售汇和美元指数(92.2445, 0.1709, 0.19%)变动情况进一步完善隐含波动率报价。
风险定价是金融领域的基本问题之一，风险溢价也是资产超额收益的重要来源。随着中国外汇管理改革不断深化，除了支付手段外，外汇的投融资功能也得到强化，体现在资本项目可兑换水平较高、市场主体结售汇自主性较强等方面。由于外汇的资产配置功能不断凸显，因此可从“收益-风险”的角度来研究人民币汇率相关问题。人民币对美元外汇期权（以下简称外汇期权）的隐含波动率曲线蕴含波动率预期、风险偏好等丰富的市场信息，为人民币汇率的风险定价研究提供了重要切入点。本文结合笔者已有学术成果，分析隐含波动率曲线数据和人民币汇率风险定价的关系，并探讨其对于期权隐含波动率报价的启示。
一、利用外汇期权隐含波动率计算人民币汇率市场情绪指数
VIX指数是基于标准普尔股指期权的隐含波动率计算得出的。类似的，可以借鉴其中的原理方法计算人民币汇率市场情绪指数，其含义为风险中性下的汇率波动率预期。汇率市场情绪指数（月度化后）的平方为汇率隐含方差。经典文献证明，理论上隐含方差是某一时点的基于所有执行价的期权价格按照一定方法得到的积分值。实际测算时，积分值要根据其数学特性转化成离散化求和，并按照外币利率（类似于股票的红利现金流出）做出一定修正，具体公式见下：
由于非线性等因素，尽管从数学上看不完全是，但从经济金融学意义上看，可以粗略地将汇率隐含方差理解为各执行价下隐含波动率平方的加权平均。其中，ATM附近报价的“权重”最大，而越实值及越虚值报价的“权重”则越小。
delta按照0.05的间隔从0.05取值至0.95，即取值19个不同delta的隐含波动率报价，数据来自彭博，并经过71次三次样条插值，计算得出了汇率隐含方差。其中，三次样条插值法是用多段三次函数来拟合隐含波动率曲线，并按拟合后的曲线进行插值。而三次函数一阶、二阶连续可导，曲线平滑，具有良好的数学特性。由于运用了大量基础数据并进行了十分密集的插值，本文的计算方法较为严谨、精确。将隐含方差年化后再开方，可转化为人民币汇率市场情绪指数，代表每个月底对未来一个月的汇率波动率的预期。
计量结果表明，8.11汇改后人民币汇率情绪指数的绝对值和波动性均显著上升。汇率情绪指数与汇率实际波动情况并无稳定的关系。有时，汇率实际运行会对前期的汇率波动率预期有顺周期反应。如2018年8月的情绪指数为6.39%，是附近高点，之后的四季度人民币进入阶段性贬值；类似的情况还有2020年11月，情绪指数为7.3%，不过对应的是阶段性升值。有时，由于汇率具有较高弹性，升贬值压力释放后，情绪指数反而降低。如2019年5月的情绪指数为2.39%，是附近低点。当时人民币汇率“破7”，发挥了对内外部经济金融状况的自动调节作用，市场预期反而趋于平稳。
二、人民币汇率的风险定价分析
按照“收益-风险”的资产定价研究思路，风险因素可能体现在资产的超额收益中，作为对承担风险的补偿。资产价格的波动率风险是最常见的风险因素之一，笔者利用即期汇率的高频数据计算了人民币汇率的实际波动率（方差）。此外，波动率不确定性的风险也是人民币汇率的另一风险因素。比如，7.21汇改至8.11汇改前，根据“主动、渐进、可控”原则，整体上人民币对美元的升值速度比较平稳，市场对人民币汇率波动率的预期不易出现太大偏差（如年升值幅度为3%~5%），汇率波动率的不确定性较低。而8.11汇改后，人民币汇率的双向波动不断加大，波动率较之以往有了更大的不确定性。
隐含方差是基于风险中性定价得出的，风险中性投资者不需要因承担风险而获得风险补偿。那么，风险中性与实际风险偏好情况下的方差预期的差值就体现了对未来波动率不确定性的风险补偿。两者差值的金融专业术语叫做方差风险溢价，可以作为汇率波动不确定性风险的代理变量。方差风险溢价通常为正。这是因为，风险中性下的预期波动率对应的是无风险利率，而现实中风险厌恶下的实际波动率对应的是比无风险利率更高的收益率。一般而言，收益率越高，看涨期权价格越高；波动率越大，看涨期权价格越高。故风险中性下的预期波动率（方差）会高于风险厌恶下的实际波动率（方差）。在理性预期的假设下，方差风险溢价为汇率的隐含方差减去实际方差，实际方差和方差风险溢价之和正好等于隐含方差。因此，期权隐含波动率数据的信息中包括两种风险——汇率波动风险和汇率波动不确定性的风险。
通过一定的实证分析，笔者发现：第一，8.11汇改前实际方差和方差风险溢价均没有单独体现在人民币汇率的风险定价中，但隐含方差却纳入了人民币汇率定价。这说明当时人民币汇率波动的不确定性的确较小，方差风险溢价还没有单独成为风险来源，并且这一阶段，隐含方差对于未来的汇率具有一定预测功效。第二，8.11汇改后，双向波动市场环境下方差风险溢价体现在了人民币汇率风险定价中，说明波动率不确定性风险的重要性凸显，人民币汇率的市场化形成机制更为成熟。这与日元、瑞士法郎、英镑(1.3695, -0.0036, -0.26%)、德国马克（欧元(1.1895, -0.0018, -0.15%)推出之前）等货币的波动率风险溢价存在的国际经验一致。因此，以波动率不确定性的视角来对标世界主要货币，人民币汇率的市场化程度确实得到了有效提升。第三，8.11汇改前后，期权隐含波动率数据均以不同的形式体现在人民币汇率风险定价中，反映出我国外汇期权市场趋向成熟，发挥了价格发现的功能。
三、对隐含波动率报价的一些启示
综合以上分析，外汇市场参与者可以从两个角度来形成隐含波动率报价。一是根据人民币汇率情绪指数的影响因素来报出隐含波动率；二是预测未来汇率实际波动率，再根据汇率波动率风险溢价（人民币汇率情绪指数与实际波动率之差，经济学意义与方差风险溢价一致）的影响因素来报出波动率风险溢价，两者之和形成风险中性下的隐含波动率报价。为研究8.11汇改后人民币汇率情绪指数和汇率波动率风险溢价的影响因素，笔者考虑了如下变量：（1）经济基本面情况，包括中国PMI、美国制造业PMI、美国非制造业PMI；（2）国际收支情况，包括海关进出口顺差和短期资本流动（外汇占款增量-贸易顺差-FDI实际利用额）；（3）代客市场结售汇行为，可用银行代客结汇/收汇率和售汇/付汇率来衡量，前者指当期银行代客结汇与代客收汇之比，后者为当期银行代客售汇与代客付汇之比；（4）美元指数。
简单的实证分析发现：第一，仅售汇/付汇率对人民币汇率情绪指数有显著的影响，两者的关系为负。8.11汇改后，人民币出现了若干次的阶段性贬值，如2016年底至2017年初、2018年四季度、2019年5月人民币汇率就面临了三次“破7”压力，2019年8月更是实现了“破7”。售汇行为加剧会增大贬值压力，但传导到预期上，却是预期的汇率波动率收窄。这体现出了市场理性，认为汇率能够发挥自动调节作用，接下来的汇率走势会回归合理水平。换一个角度看，当人民币呈现一定的升值趋势时，售汇/付汇率增大会缓解升值压力，防止波动率预期进一步发散。不过人民币汇率情绪指数对结汇情况不敏感。此外，人民币汇率情绪指数还有常见的自回归特征。第二，仅美元指数变动绝对值对波动率风险溢价有显著的影响，两者的关系为正。美元汇率是全球宏观经济金融波动的“晴雨表”之一，被许多文献证明是货币超额收益的重要定价因子。本文也发现美元指数波动的外部因素的确会加大波动率不确定性的风险，进而影响人民币汇率的风险定价。因此短期内，近期的代客市场售汇情况和美元指数波动是报出人民币汇率情绪指数及波动率风险溢价的重要参考，而经济基本面、国际收支情况与它们的相关性却较弱。当然，基于某delta或执行价的隐含波动率报价，还要依照汇率变动方向（隐含波动率曲线形状）的预判等因素做出一定调整。人民币汇率情绪指数及波动率风险溢价的其他影响因素也有待进一步挖掘。
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This city is developing the world’s tallest timber tower, again
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The US city of Milwaukee is already home to the world’s tallest timber tower. But another, even taller, wooden skyscraper could be added to its skyline, designed by Vancouver-based studio Michael Green Architects (MGA).
The firm recently released plans for the development, which includes a 55-story tower made principally from mass timber — thick, compressed, multilayered panels of solid wood. If built, it would usurp the current world title holder, the 25-story Ascent tower by Korb + Associates Architects, as well as becoming the tallest building in the state of Wisconsin.
MGA, which specializes in wooden architecture, hopes that the project will set a “new global benchmark for mass timber construction.”
The project is part of the redevelopment of the Marcus Performing Arts Center, which opened in 1969 and won the Honor Award for Excellence in Architectural Design from the American Institute of Architects in 1970. Led by Neutral, which bills itself as a “regenerative development company,” the redesign will transform what is currently the center’s concrete parking lot into a space with residential units, offices, restaurants, cafes, grocery stores and public plazas. According to MGA, construction will cost an estimated $700 million. The plan is currently going through the city’s approval process, during which it is expected to evolve.
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The staff at Australian flag carrier Qantas must have been flat-out like a lizard drinking sorting that mess out. And if you don’t understand that lingo, it’s time to check out our guide to Aussie slang.
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Long-lost copy of the US Constitution, found in North Carolina filing cabinet, heads to auction
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Historical document appraiser and collector Seth Kaller spreads a broad sheet of paper across a desk. It’s in good enough condition that he can handle it, carefully, with clean, bare hands. There are just a few creases and tiny discolorations, even though it’s just a few weeks shy of 237 years old and has spent who knows how long inside a filing cabinet in North Carolina.
At the top of the first page are familiar words but in regular type instead of the sweeping Gothic script we’re used to seeing: “WE, the People …”
And the people will get a chance to bid for this copy of the US Constitution — the only of its type thought to be in private hands — at a sale by Brunk Auctions on Sept. 28 in Asheville, North Carolina.
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The minimum bid for the auction of $1 million has already been made. There is no minimum price that must be reached.
This copy was printed after the Constitutional Convention finished drafting the proposed framework of the nation’s government in 1787 and sent it to the Congress of the ineffective first American government under the Articles of Confederation, requesting they send it to the states to be ratified by the people.
It’s one of about 100 copies printed by the secretary of that Congress, Charles Thomson. Just eight are known to still exist and the other seven are publicly owned.
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In the last two years, tennis has taken over our closets (court-appropriate garb can be found everywhere from Skims to Miu Miu), our screens (who could forget Zendaya’s turn as the tennis protoge-turned-elite-coach Tashi Duncan in “Challengers”) and now — our living rooms.
At least that is the hope of Belgian eco-designer Mathilde Wittock, who fashions bespoke furniture from discarded tennis balls. Wittock’s sleek, modernist chaise longues are entirely cushionless — save for the padding of 500 precisely arranged tennis balls. Her one meter-long benches are similarly sparse, with some 270 balls being both stylish and structurally substantial.
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“It takes around 24 different manufacturing steps to (make) a tennis ball, which is around five days. Then it has such a short lifespan,” Wittock told CNN in a video call from Brussels. “I was looking into tennis balls because I played tennis myself, so I know there is a lot of waste.”
Around 300 million tennis balls are produced each year — and almost all of them end up in landfills, taking over 400 years to decompose. The US Open, which ended at the weekend, goes through around 70,000 each year, with Wimbledon not far behind at 55,000. Wittock estimates the lifecycle of a ball stands at just nine games, depending on the level of tennis being played. “Even if they are contained in their box, if the box has been opened the gas inside the tennis balls will be released over time,” she said. “(Eventually) they will get flat and you’ll have to throw them away.”
Actress Gemma Arterton says director tried to pressure her to do sex scene
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British actress Gemma Arterton has revealed that a director once tried to put pressure on her to film a sex scene, despite the fact that it wasn’t included in the script.
In an interview with British publication the Radio Times, released Tuesday, Arterton said that, whilst on set, the director - who hasn’t been named - instructed her and her co-star to film a sex scene on a bed.
“I said, ‘No, this scene was written for us to be off screen, so you just hear the noises,’” Arterton told the Radio Times. “I’d never have accepted the role if it was going to be filmed.”
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The actress said that she was pressured by the director to film the scene, but that she “flat out” refused to take part in it.
Had she been younger at the time, Arterton suggested that she might have been more concerned about being fired for refusing to film it.
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“When I started acting, there was a lot of nudity – you were just expected to do it. When I was younger I played sexy characters, the girlfriend. As I’ve got older, that’s changed because I’m more successful and can choose the parts I want to play,” she said.
She praised the use of intimacy coordinators in film and television since the #MeToo movement, telling the magazine that “it’s a totally different landscape” now.
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The pandemic’s effects on teenagers were profound — numerous studies have documented reports of issues with their mental health, social lives and more.
Now, a new study suggests those phenomena caused some adolescents’ brains to age much faster than they normally would — 4.2 years faster in girls and 1.4 years faster in boys on average, according to the study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
By being the first to contribute details on aging differences by sex, the study adds to the existing body of knowledge provided by two previous studies on the Covid-19 pandemic and accelerated brain aging among adolescents.
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“The findings are an important wake-up call about the fragility of the teenage brain,” said senior study author Dr. Patricia K. Kuhl, the Bezos Family Foundation Endowed Chair in Early Childhood Learning and codirector of the Institute for Learning and Brain Sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, via email. “Teens need our support now more than ever.”
Significant socioemotional development occurs during adolescence, along with substantial changes to brain structure and function. The thickness of the cerebral cortex naturally peaks during childhood, steadily decreases throughout adolescence and continues to decrease through one’s lifespan, the authors wrote.
The researchers originally intended to track ordinary adolescent brain development over time, starting with MRIs the authors conducted on participants’ brains in 2018. They planned to follow up with them for another scan in 2020.
The pandemic delayed the second MRI by three to four years — when the 130 participants based in Washington state were between ages 12 and 20. The authors excluded adolescents who had been diagnosed with a developmental or psychiatric disorder or who were taking psychotropic medications.