当地时间4月8日,美国财政部负责联邦财政事务的副助理部长布莱恩•史密斯(Brian Smith)在纽约联储的一级交易商年度会议上发表了讲话。
史密斯透露,美国财政部正“高度关注”货币市场交易状况,同时,美国监管机构正在全面观察美国国债市场弹性。
史密斯总结称,在2020财年,美国财政部举行了500多次拍卖,拍卖了约20万亿美元的证券,筹集了超过4万亿美元的净新现金。他强调美国国债市场仍然是世界上最深入、流动性最强的市场。
史密斯表示,联邦政府对疫情的财政回应大大增加了国库借款需求的规模和不确定性。在2020财年,政府赤字增加了超过2万亿美元,至约3.1万亿美元,预计2021财年的赤字将增加至3.2万亿美元。为了满足这些前所未有的借贷需求,财政部大大增加了票据的发行。
史密斯称,他们本来假设3月底的现金余额为8000亿美元,6月底的现金余额为5000亿美元。结果显示,3月底的现金余额为1.1万亿美元,突显了在如此巨大的不确定性环境下运营的挑战。
他说,尽管3月底现金余额高于预期,财政部仍打算按照上一季度再融资的指导原则来逐步减少现金余额。实际上,自3月底以来,现金余额已经减少了约2000亿美元。
他同时表示,将高度关注票据发行和现金余额决定如何影响货币市场交易状况,在做出决定时将考虑这些敏感性。包括美联储、美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)、美国证交会和财政部的监管工作小组将探索提高美国国债市场弹性的方法。
史密斯表示,美国财政部考虑了增强美债市场弹性的方法,从五个方面进行过研究,包括:
(1)提高数据质量和可用性。哪些数据缺口仍然存在?改进的数据能否更好地洞悉漏洞或对未来市场压力事件进行收益评估?
(2)增强市场中介的弹性。为什么电子订单流动性恶化?为什么经销商的流动资金准备不足以吸引中间客户流量?监管的变化能否在未来市场压力时期促进更具弹性的流动性供应?
(3)评估扩大的中央清算。在正常和压力时期,扩大的中央清算将在多大程度上促进或抑制流动性供应和健康的市场运作?不同类型的市场参与者将如何反应?中央清算会导致更广泛的变化来促进市场流动性吗?扩大中央清算范围将如何影响系统性风险?
(4)加强交易场所的透明度和监督。主要的政府证券交易平台是否受到适当的监管,市场参与者是否掌握有关其运营和政策的足够信息?
(5)审查杠杆和资金流动性风险管理做法的影响。杠杆投资者或开放式基金的销售在多大程度上加剧了市场压力?
史密斯称,这五个重点领域是多方面的,机构间工作组计划采取全面和协作的方式来探索它们并评估可能的后续步骤。
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