拜登的几万亿美元基建方案还未落地，美国财政部一日2000多亿美元的罕见“泄洪”可能就将重演。
美国财政部本周四公布，在面向纽约联储一级交易商的年度会议上，负责联邦政府金融事务的副助理财政部长Brian Smith表示，此前该部门预计，财政部在美联储的总账户TGA今年3月末所持现金余额会降至8000亿美元，实际情况是到3月末还有1.1万亿美元，这“凸显了在高度不确定的环境下操作面临的挑战”。
Smith说，
尽管月末余额比预期高，“我们仍有意逐步缩减现金余额，让它与上次的季度再融资指引一致。实际上，自3月末以来，现金余额已经减少约2000亿美元。”
Smith强调，财政部“高度关注美国国债发售和（TGA）现金余额决策对货币市场交易条件的影响，在做决策时，会将这些敏感情况考虑在内。”
Smith同时透露，在去年3月美国国债市场发生混乱后，财政部会同美联储、美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）以及美国证监会（SEC）这些监管机构，计划“全面且协调性地”研究提升美国国债市场韧性的方式，评估未来可能采取的行动步骤。Smith列出了五大工作重点，包括提高数据质量和可用性、增强市场中介的韧性、评估扩大范围的中央结算、提升交易平台的透明度和监管、调查杠杆和基金流动性风险管理的影响。
Smith所说的继续缩减TGA现金余额意味着，我们可能又会看到上月那样的财政部创纪录“泄洪”。
今年3月17日美国财政部公布，TGA的现金余额资金量在一日内从1.361万亿美元降至1.09万亿美元。这意味着，财政部一天内就向金融市场注入了2710亿美元的巨额现金。金融博客Zerohedge当时称这一幅度“史无前例”，拜登刺激法案终于“开闸放水”。
根据今年2月初财政部公布的计划，后续财政刺激将优先使用TGA的余额，而不是通过增发债券融资，计划TGA余额从3月初的1.4万亿美元缩减至月末的8000亿美元，6月底减至5000亿美元。
财政部缩减TGA，叠加银行存款激增带来的准备金增加，大量资金将回到货币市场基金手中，基金寻找避风港，投资于市场上剩余的短期美债，可能导致短端美债利率被压至低于隔夜逆回购工具利率（ON RRP）水平，而由于ON RRP利率已经为0%，导致隔夜一般抵押品回购利率跌至负值。
也就是说，长期利率不断走高之时，美国短期利率将进入“名义负利率”时代。
华尔街见闻此前文章提到，3月17日当周，一个重要短期利率指标——追踪一般抵押品金融回购协议市场每日利率的DTCC GCF指数曾经跌至-0.008%。
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