美联储的政策方针是，决策者在决定改变政策立场之前，希望看到实质性的进展，而不是预期的进展。当前，美国经济复苏取得了重大进展，部分地区的经济增速明显加快。
对于维持何种程度的宽松政策才能实现最终的就业和通胀目标，人们的观点不一，但可以肯定的是，美联储的货币政策会比疫情刚开始时，以及1.9万亿美元的刺激计划通过后要有所收紧。
判断一个政策立场是否过于宽松并非易事，而且历史表明，在不产生经济重大负面影响的情况下做出抉择是不可能的，目前美联储似乎采取一种放任的态度。然而，因为如果过度冒险，让通胀和通胀预期不断升高，可能就会重蹈覆辙，犯下以前所犯的政策错误。
以下是美国经济强劲复苏和决策者过度冒险的证据：
就业市场迅速回暖
3月份，就业人数增加91.6万人，远高于市场预期，第一季度就业人数增加160万人。强劲的月度就业增长让失业率从6.7%下降至6.0%，降低了0.7个百分点。
第二季度的就业率很可能在第一季度的基础上翻一番。疫苗接种速度加快，让许多经济部门得以重新开放，特别是旅游业和学校，这会大幅提高就业率。到年中，失业率可能会下降整整一个百分点至5%，非常接近美联储年底4.5%的目标。
制造业增长
美国3月ISM制造业PMI增至64.7%，录得37年来的最高值。新订单指数和产出指数大幅上升也为第一季度和未来几个季度经济的快速增长提供了有力证据。
但目前也有通胀加剧的迹象。美国3月ISM制造业物价支付指数降低了0.4个点至85.6，不过仍处在相对高位。光看指数并不能区分增长和下降的规模，因此不清楚通胀处于什么程度。然而，ISM表示，有57种大宗商品的价格上涨，25种大宗商品供应短缺，这意味着企业面临着较大的价格和成本压力。
房价创历史新高
美联储致力于实现2%的总体通胀目标，但这却引燃了房地产市场。
美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）公布的房价指数在过去12个月里上涨了12%，房价创历史新高。相比之下，用于计算CPI的估算租金仅上涨2%。实际租金与估算租金之间相差1000个基点，这比本世纪初房地产泡沫顶峰时期的差距大了200个基点。
奇怪的是，决策者在2008/2009年房地产泡沫破裂后，通过实施零利率以及大规模购买住房抵押贷款证券来支撑房地产市场，而如今他们仍采用相同的方法。
金融风险骤增
今年第一季度，大盘股再创新高，延续了2019年和2020年的快速涨势。过去两年，美股市值增加50%（或16万亿美元），至48.7万亿美元。不只一位决策者表示资产价格已经高得令人害怕。
上周，达拉斯联储主席罗伯特•卡普兰表示：
“毫无疑问，金融资产的估值总体处于较高水平。过度冒险的行为令人担忧，如果人们过度冒险，不管是过度冒险行为还是资产失衡，最终都会带来巨大的挑战。”
尽管种种迹象表明美国经济复苏正在进入快车道，美联储可能要考虑政策调整，然而美联储的点阵图表明，决策者计划在未来三年保持相同的货币宽松政策。这为股价持续上涨提供了条件，且鼓励投机和过度冒险行为。
过去，决策者未能在通胀压力加剧之前采取合理措施来遏制通胀压力。如今，决策者将再次面临资产价格过度上涨带来的压力。
一个成功的货币政策是用来避免金融市场和资产价格失衡的，它能够缩短商业周期，却不会抬升失业率和通胀率。所以决策者需要尽快发出紧缩政策信号，以避免经济周期过早地从繁荣转向萧条。
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