周二,虽然美元指数(92.3395, 0.0175, 0.02%)持续下滑,但是非美走势也出现分化,欧元(1.1871, -0.0001, -0.01%)录得上涨,而英镑(1.3811, -0.0011, -0.08%)出现下跌。如此情况不一定能说明美元回落是有广泛认可的。美股目前先跌后涨,处于高位震荡格局中,而黄金在美元指数上涨,美债收益率回落支持下上涨将近15美元。
投资人情绪短暂偏向谨慎
就在之前受到美股持续大涨的影响下,市场对于风险资产的押注是积极的,非美货币兑美元出现集体上涨。不过昨日随着股市回落,似乎兑现利润成为主要交易模式。英镑在毫无利空的情况下回落,而欧元则维持了上涨形态,前者可能是多头在平仓,后者可能是补涨。非美分化走势说明多头观点分歧,如此行情可能缺乏持续性。
A50
A股市场昨日受到A50指数回调的影响而下跌,很显然在触及上方压力位置,缺乏大盘股支持的A股多头信心是缺乏的。后市需要放量或者持续上涨板块引领A股突破,否则冲高回落的就看下方支撑有效性的情况。
技术上看A50指数在17800点位置遇阻回落,昨日低点17420点附近是关键支撑,如果跌破那么这波上涨行情结束,后市将继续测试17100附近。指标看布林线开始横盘,而MACD下滑,短线上涨加速衰退。交易策略,突破前可以参考关键位置高抛低吸。
英镑
英镑的基本面目前没有问题,经济复苏的迹象已经出现,而疫苗接种的速度领先于其他西方国家,所以英镑的基本面前景是积极的。唯一有问题的是英镑领先于欧元太多,短线存在投机资金追求超额利润,而获利了结介入欧元,但如此的情景随着欧元上涨而变得不可持续。
技术上看,英镑在跌破1.385之后,这里形成第一压力,而下方1.38附近是关键支撑,跌破则会迎来加速回落。指标看布林线开口在收缩,而MACD低位有金叉迹象,可能英镑下跌速度在下降。交易策略,在突破前避免追单,可以尝试高抛低吸交易。
黄金
美元指数,美债收益率的回落对于黄金形成短线支撑,不过黄金的市场需求回暖,以及通胀预期的上升可能对黄金有着更坚实的上涨动力支持。
黄金短线站稳1730美元,上方形态偏多,而第一压力就是1745美元,突破看1755美元附近。指标看布林线开口向上,而MACD高位横盘,或许黄金还有上攻动能。交易策略以逢低多为主,跌破1730美元则多头要离场。
4月7日(周三)交易日待公布重点数据及财经事件提醒;
① 16:00 中国3月外汇储备
② 16:30 英国3月Markit服务业PMI
③ 20:30 美国2月贸易帐、加拿大2月贸易帐
④ 21:00 美联储埃文斯就发表讲话
⑤ 22:00 加拿大3月IVEY季调后PMI
⑥ 22:30 美国至4月2日当周EIA原油库存
⑦ 次日01:00 美联储戴利出席研讨会
⑧ 次日02:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要
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